{"id":368356,"date":"2026-07-10T15:42:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T15:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/368356\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T15:42:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T15:42:09","slug":"80-chance-of-a-super-el-nino-this-fall-how-will-it-affect-texas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/368356\/","title":{"rendered":"80% chance of a super El Ni\u00f1o this fall. How will it affect Texas?"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Ni\u00f1o, one of the planet\u2019s most powerful climate patterns, is rapidly gaining strength<\/a> and current forecasts are giving it an 81% chance of reaching historic strength in the fall, and a 97% chance that it\u00a0will continue through early spring 2027.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o and its counterpart La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a are changes in sea-surface temperatures in the world\u2019s largest body of water, the Pacific Ocean, that can influence weather around the world. El Ni\u00f1o, when the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific\u00a0become warmer than normal, typically brings cooler, wetter weather into Texas, while the cooler waters during La Nina often lead to warmer and drier weather.<\/p>\n

In recent weeks, El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u00a0has intensified much faster than forecasters expected<\/a>, and some climate models now suggest this event could\u00a0rank among the strongest on record since observations began in the 1950s.<\/p>\n

The surge in ocean temperatures has given forecasters increasing confidence that a very strong El Ni\u00f1o event, or what some have dubbed a \u201csuper El\u00a0Nino\u201d could emerge this year. While it\u2019s not an official NOAA term, a super El Ni\u00f1o refers to an exceptionally strong event, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 3 degrees above average.<\/p>\n

While this information isn\u2019t that worrisome during the summertime in Texas, it definitely raises some eyebrows when El Ni\u00f1o is expected to be at its strongest from the fall season through the following spring.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While El Ni\u00f1o is often associated with wetter weather across Texas during the fall and winter, its influence on our summer weather is much more limited. One notable exception is along the Texas Gulf Coast, where strengthening El Ni\u00f1o conditions typically reduce the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re planning a trip to South Padre Island or anywhere along the Texas coast this summer, the odds currently favor quieter tropical weather. A strengthening El Ni\u00f1o creates stronger upper-level winds across the Atlantic, producing wind shear that makes it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and intensify.<\/p>\n

Add in repeated plumes of Saharan dust,<\/a> accompanied by dry air, moving across the Atlantic, and the environment becomes even less favorable for tropical cyclone development in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n

The warming phase of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation officially developed in early June, marking a transition away from La Ni\u00f1a, which had been a recurring part of recent winters. Now, in the first half of July, a large area of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has seen sea-surface temperatures climb to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average \u2014 and temperatures are expected to rise even more.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven the strongest El\u00a0Nino events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes,\u201d climatologists from the Climate Prediction Center wrote in their monthly discussion<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o, one of the planet\u2019s most powerful climate patterns, is rapidly gaining strength and current forecasts are…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":368357,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[132,134,133],"class_list":["post-368356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-austin","tag-austin","tag-austin-headlines","tag-austin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=368356"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368356\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/368357"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=368356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=368356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=368356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}