{"id":370142,"date":"2026-07-12T10:37:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T10:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/370142\/"},"modified":"2026-07-12T10:37:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T10:37:09","slug":"austin-weather-changes-course-whats-behind-this-weeks-rain-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/370142\/","title":{"rendered":"Austin weather changes course: What’s behind this week’s rain chance?"},"content":{"rendered":"

While scattered thunderstorms were the main story Saturday, rain chances will increase again on Sunday<\/a>. The greatest coverage of rain is expected to stay north of Central Texas, but enough moisture and instability could still support a 20% to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing brief, heavy tropical downpours.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a refreshing change of pace to have scattered rain showers<\/a>, a few thunderstorms, and some breezy winds to help keep the worst of the summer heat at bay.<\/p>\n

The reason for the change is a shift in the summer heat dome<\/a>, or subtropical ridge of high atmospheric pressure, which has moved north over the\u00a0Rocky Mountains and into the northern Plains. Because winds circulate clockwise around high pressure, Texas is now positioned beneath an easterly to northeasterly flow in the upper atmosphere while southerly winds continue near the surface.<\/p>\n

That combination is funneling deep volumes of moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico into the state and creating a much more favorable setup for scattered showers and thunderstorms through early next week.<\/p>\n

The weather becomes more interesting Monday and Tuesday. A mid-level low pressure system over the southeastern United States is expected to retrograde, or move westward, around the southern edge of the subtropical ridge. The rain-friendly system of low air pressure will be near Tennessee on Monday before shifting into Oklahoma by late Wednesday, helping to produce the highest rain chances Texas has seen in several weeks.<\/p>\n

However, one wildcard could influence just how much rain falls.<\/p>\n

\u201cOver the Gulf, another plume of Saharan dust<\/a> is forecast by NASA\u2019s Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness model to move into southeast Texas Monday and Tuesday,\u201d meteorologists at the National Weather Service wrote in the daily forecast discussion<\/a> for Central Texas. \u201cAt this time, it is difficult to say how much this will impact rain and storm chances given high\u00a0PWATs (precipitable water) and adequate mid-level forcing for locally heavy rainfall.\u201d<\/p>\n

The reason this is a concern is because the relatively\u00a0high 50% to 60% rain chances may be a bit aggressive with the presence of Saharan dust. If enough dry air mixes into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, it could limit thunderstorm development and keep rainfall totals lower than currently forecast. For now, we\u2019re sticking with the higher rain chances Monday and Tuesday before a gradual drying trend begins on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

The added clouds and rain should also keep temperatures below average for a few days. Some communities across Central Texas may stay in the 80s Monday and Tuesday, but as the rain and storms end later in the week, highs will climb back into the 90s, along with the return of higher humidity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While scattered thunderstorms were the main story Saturday, rain chances will increase again on Sunday. The greatest coverage…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":370143,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[132,134,133],"class_list":["post-370142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-austin","tag-austin","tag-austin-headlines","tag-austin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=370142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/370142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/370143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=370142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=370142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=370142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}