One of the shocking things about the storms that hit Texas this week is that rainfall of similar devastating strength struck almost exactly a year ago in many of the same places.<\/p>\n
That tragic repetition may be less of a surprise to those who follow climate science.<\/p>\n
While it is tricky to attribute specific rain events to climate change, experts say they know enough about how the warming atmosphere and warming oceans affect precipitation to recognize trends.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re not saying that our warming climate caused these floods this year, last year\u201d Shel Winkley, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, told Texas Public Radio\u2019s The Source. “But we understand how it\u2019s making it more likely, more frequent.\u201d<\/p>\n
A warming atmosphere, for example, increases extreme rainfall risk because warm air holds more moisture that can lead to about 4% more rainfall for every one degree warmer the air becomes, Winkley said.<\/p>\n
In a 2024 report<\/a>, the Office of the State Climatologist of Texas noted that Texas had already seen up to a 15% increase in extreme rainstorms this century from the latter part of last century.<\/p>\n The flooding this past week hit many of the same areas as the July Fourth floods of 2025, including Kerrville, Texas.<\/p>\n That report predicted a 20% increase in the frequency of those storms by 2036 that would more than double the previous odds of extreme rainfall happening.<\/p>\n The same report found that increased rainfall will contribute to a 10% to 15% increase in flooding in urban areas<\/a>, potentially doubling the risk of floods from last century.<\/p>\n![\"Debris,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1784414709_574_.jpeg\"\/)
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