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<\/p>\nA tropical system could form near Florida this week, but forecasters say Houston is not expected to see significant impacts. Here’s the latest outlook.<\/p>\n
HOUSTON \u2014 The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance near Florida that has a medium chance of developing into the Atlantic’s next named storm this week, but forecasters say Southeast Texas is not expected to see significant impacts.<\/p>\n
KHOU 11 Meteorologist Ryan Shoptaugh said the disturbance, located on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico, now has a 50% chance of tropical development over the next 48 to 72 hours. The system’s odds were increased from 40% earlier Saturday.<\/p>\n
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If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur formed last month.<\/p>\n
\nHouston not expected to see direct impacts <\/p>\n
While the system will be monitored closely, Shoptaugh said a ridge of high pressure off the Texas coast is expected to keep it from moving west toward Houston.<\/p>\n
“This almost acts as a barrier,” Shoptaugh explained, noting the system is forecast to remain well east of Southeast Texas.<\/p>\n
Houston could see a slight increase in rain chances by Wednesday or Thursday if some outer moisture reaches the area, but no major impacts are expected.<\/p>\n
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\nFlorida Gulf Coast, Louisiana could see rough conditions <\/p>\n
Current forecast guidance takes the system toward the Florida Panhandle before moving closer to coastal Louisiana early next week.<\/p>\n
Residents and visitors from Destin and Pensacola to New Orleans could experience:<\/p>\n
Increased rainGusty windsRough surfDangerous rip currents <\/p>\n
Those with travel plans along the northern Gulf Coast early this week should continue monitoring the forecast.<\/p>\n
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\nHurricane season is entering its busiest stretch <\/p>\n
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with activity typically increasing during the second half of July before peaking in late August through September.<\/p>\n
Shoptaugh said July storms often develop from tropical waves moving across the Atlantic and Caribbean before entering the Gulf of Mexico, making this the time of year forecasters begin watching the tropics more closely.<\/p>\n
\nHotter weather ahead for Houston <\/p>\n
Regardless of tropical development, Southeast Texas is expected to get hotter this week.<\/p>\n
High temperatures will climb into the upper 90s through midweek, with Houston potentially reaching its first 100-degree day of 2026 on Thursday. Heat index values are expected to exceed 100 degrees, and heat advisories may become necessary later in the week.<\/p>\n
KHOU 11 will continue tracking the Gulf disturbance and provide updates as the forecast evolves.<\/p>\n