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This visible-light weather satellite image, captured Monday morning, shows Tropical Depression Two as it churns off the Florida Panhandle. While the system is still disorganized, it’s expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha Monday.<\/p>\n
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/p>\n
The forecast for Tropical Depression Two,<\/a> which was churning Monday off the coast of the Florida Panhandle near Alabama,\u00a0isn\u2019t about whether it will strengthen. It\u2019s about where it ultimately goes.<\/p>\n The depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha later Monday while tracking westward along the northern Gulf Coast. Although the current forecast keeps the strongest weather hazards east of Texas, uncertainty will increase as the system approaches our corner of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n SIGN UP: You can get a text alert when Tropical Storm Bertha officially forms in the Gulf when you sign up for Houston Weather [Simplified].<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n With Texas still a few days away from any potential threats, relatively small changes in Bertha\u2019s track could produce very different outcomes for Southeast Texas.<\/p>\n Worst-case scenario for Texas<\/p>\n A Louisiana track would bring Houston the greatest threats<\/p>\n For Houston, the worst-case scenario would be a track that carries the center of the system westward<\/a> near the Louisiana coast before approaching the upper Texas coast later this week.<\/p>\n That path would keep Southeast Texas closer to the storm\u2019s core for a longer period, increasing the potential for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, rough surf and minor coastal flooding.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Regardless of the exact track, Texans along the Gulf Coast should still expect increasing surf, dangerous rip currents and at least some coastal water level rise later this week. The biggest uncertainty is how much of the heavier rain and stronger winds reach the Houston area.<\/p>\n A Texas landfall wouldn\u2019t automatically be worse<\/p>\n A track toward the middle Texas coast, such as near Corpus Christi, would likely shift the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds southwest of Houston, leaving the metro to face comparatively lighter hazards.<\/p>\n SEASON OUTLOOK:\u00a0Strong El Ni\u00f1o reshapes hurricane season outlook for Texas and Gulf Coast. Here\u2019s how.<\/a><\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n In other words, where Bertha makes landfall along the Gulf Coast matters far more for Houston than whether it makes landfall in Texas.<\/p>\n Best-case scenario for Texas<\/p>\n The most favorable outcome for Texas would be for Bertha to move inland over Louisiana or Mississippi before continuing westward as a weakening tropical system.<\/p>\n