{"id":381249,"date":"2026-07-21T18:27:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T18:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/381249\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T18:27:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T18:27:12","slug":"texas-am-agricultural-economists-expect-stable-meat-prices-this-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/381249\/","title":{"rendered":"Texas A&M agricultural economists: Expect stable meat prices this summer"},"content":{"rendered":"

Texas shoppers heading to the meat counter this summer should expect beef prices to remain near record highs, but a new Texas A&M University<\/a> report suggests the wild swings of last summer are unlikely to repeat.<\/p>\n

The Texas A&M Food Price Predictor: Summer 2026 Meat Prices report<\/a>, from the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences<\/a> Department of Agricultural Economics<\/a>, projects consumers will see a more orderly price pattern through October for most cuts of beef, pork and chicken.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/a>Texas A&M agricultural economists say consumers should expect relatively stable beef, pork and chicken prices this summer, though oil prices and the New World screwworm remain key factors that could influence costs. (Sam Craft\/Texas A&M AgriLife)<\/p>\n

Lead author Simon Somogyi, Ph.D., Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair and head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, described the outlook as cautious for consumers rather than pessimistic.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe signal is more cautious than bearish,\u201d Somogyi said. \u201cWe think things are going to be reasonably stable in terms of price, but we keep seeing layer upon layer of worldwide events that impact price.\u201d<\/p>\n

Co-authors included David Anderson, Ph.D., professor and\u00a0Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service<\/a>\u00a0specialist \u2013 livestock and food product marketing; Yong Liu, Ph.D., assistant professor; and Weifang Liang, a doctoral student \u2013 all in the department.<\/p>\n

Beef prices high, but more predictable<\/p>\n

The average retail price for ground beef is forecast to ease slightly, from about $6.71 per pound in May to $6.62 by October. Chuck roast and sirloin steak are expected to stay flat or edge lower, and ribeye, the priciest cut in the forecast, is projected to ease from around $18.81 per pound to $18.33. Brisket is the one beef cut expected to increase, rising from about $5.83 to $5.95 per pound.<\/p>\n

The biggest wild card is the New World screwworm<\/a>. Livestock trade, including beef cattle, with Mexico is closed due to New World screwworm, according to the USDA-APHIS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Confirmed cases of the flesh-eating parasite in Texas have put producers and regulatory agencies on edge. While the pest poses no major threat to the U.S. beef supply, management practices could translate into higher input costs that eventually trickle down to consumers.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow with New World screwworm, that\u2019s going to cause issues that we haven\u2019t seen yet,\u201d Somogyi said. \u201cWe could see higher prices without those historically steady imports from Mexico.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said Canada\u2019s recent halt on beef imports from Texas could offset some of that pressure by keeping more beef in the domestic market, but the screwworm\u2019s full impact remains unknown.<\/p>\n

Oil prices remain the biggest lever<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, Somogyi said oil prices could influence meat prices more than any other factor. Petroleum production drives the cost of fertilizer, animal feed and transportation, and the U.S-Iran conflict continues to add uncertainty.<\/p>\n

\u201cA major factor is the price of oil,\u201d he said. \u201cBig fluctuations can ripple into multiple layers of the logistical chain from farm to grocery store. That potentially broad impact makes it tricky for us to predict what\u2019s going to happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, Somogyi sees room for optimism if oil prices stay relatively stable.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re cautiously optimistic that we\u2019ve probably seen the height of oil price increases,\u201d he said. \u201c<\/p>\n

Even so, he cautioned that lower oil prices and savings at the pump won\u2019t show up at the grocery store right away.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s going to take time for that to move through the supply chain and to be felt on the shelf.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where shoppers will find relief<\/p>\n

While consumers should expect beef to stay near record highs, pork and chicken should remain the more budget-friendly options. Pork chops are projected to rise from $3.54 per pound in May to $3.84 per pound by October, the largest summer increase of any cut in the report, while chicken breasts hold nearly flat, edging from about $3.24 per pound to $3.30 per pound.<\/p>\n

Somogyi credits that stability to shorter production cycles for hogs and poultry, which let supply adjust to demand far faster than cattle can.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe biological cycle is a lot shorter for those,\u201d he said. \u201cThat means the market can respond quicker and move product through to the grocery store more rapidly than the cattle cycle, which takes years.\u201d<\/p>\n

While a beef calf can reach market weight in about 18 months and a heifer can produce her first calf by around age 2, rebuilding cattle herds is a much longer process, Somogyi said.
Expanding herd numbers requires producers to retain breeding females rather than sell them. It can take years for those decisions to translate into broader herd rebuilding and increased beef supplies, he said.<\/p>\n

How much will resilient U.S. consumers sacrifice?<\/p>\n

The bigger question, Somogyi said, is how long consumers will keep absorbing high beef prices before shifting spending toward pork and chicken. Demand for beef held up surprisingly well in 2025 even as prices climbed, but with fuel and grocery costs both elevated this summer, that could start to change.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe may get to a situation whereby people start really looking at the substitutes,\u201d he said. \u201cGround beef is still relatively inexpensive, but those higher-cost cuts, the sirloin and rib-eye steaks, may become only for special occasions.\u201d<\/p>\n

For now, Somogyi said the report\u2019s message is one of watchfulness rather than alarm, with cattle inventories, screwworm developments and energy markets worth tracking as the season continues.<\/p>\n


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