When you get to November, you can’t just look at the numbers. You have to look at the situations too. There are a lot of teams coming down the home stretch of the season with plenty to play for, but there are just as many with nothing left. Teams that already have too many losses to go bowling — or have already seen their coach fired.<\/p>\n
There are also teams with plenty to play for, but who have endured a tough stretch of games. Then there are teams who had been struggling lately, but are coming off a bye, and might be feeling refreshed.<\/p>\n
These are all things I’m on the lookout for this week. And I’ve found plenty of interesting spots we can exploit, so let’s do that.<\/p>\n
Games to Watch<\/p>\n
No. 7 BYU<\/a> at No. 8 Texas Tech<\/a>: The evaluation of every Big 12 game featuring Texas Tech begins with the same question: Can Team X block the Red Raiders? This week the team is BYU, and this week the answer remains mysterious. The Texas Tech defensive line is much stronger than the other schools, so Big 12 offensive lines aren’t used to dealing these monsters on a weekly basis. If you think this is a gross overstatement on my part, I’ll remind you that Texas Tech is a 10.5-point favorite in this game as I write. That defense is the primary reason why.<\/p>\n As for whether BYU can block it, I’m not overly optimistic. BYU’s offensive line has been good this year, but the best defensive front it has faced is Utah’s<\/a>, and Utah’s DL isn’t up to the same standard as recent seasons. I’ve also seen the BYU line struggle in games against Arizona<\/a>, and that’s concerning to me. What else concerns me is Bear Bachmeier<\/a>. When it comes to sack avoidance, all the stats I care about suggest he’s slightly above average. My eyes tell me different, though. What I see when I watch is a guy who gets away with things I’m not sure he’ll get away with against this defense.<\/p>\n None of this means you should expect Tech to run away with the game. I don’t think it will. Tech’s offense has been extremely inconsistent lately as it’s been forced to play musical chairs at quarterback with Behren Morton<\/a> and Will Hammond<\/a>. It’s the Morton Show for good at this point, but BYU’s defense might not have the monsters Tech has up front, but it’s a good unit. One I believe will be able to frustrate the Red Raiders’ offense. The Pick: Under 52.5 (-115) at Fanduel<\/a><\/p>\n No. 9 Oregon<\/a> at No. 20 Iowa<\/a>: I wrote earlier this week about how much uncertainty<\/a>\u00a0comes with this game on the Iowa side of things, but there’s plenty unknown about Oregon, too. The fact is, the Ducks offense has not been special since the Penn State<\/a> game. Yes, they put up a bunch of points and yards against Rutgers<\/a>, but so has everybody else. The typical explosiveness we’ve come to expect from Oregon has been absent outside that game. Dante Moore<\/a> has looked average, as has Oregon’s collection of pass-catchers.<\/p>\n Going on the road to face the Iowa defense won’t help matters, nor will the weather, as it’s expected to be rainy and cool. However, Oregon is coming off a bye, and this is one of those spots where a week off to get healthy and correct things could work in their favor. After all, while Iowa’s pass defense has looked spectacular lately, it’s done so against Wisconsin<\/a>, Minnesota<\/a> and Penn State (in its first game without Drew Allar<\/a>). So is it fixed, or will we see more of the problems we saw against Indiana<\/a> and Rutgers?<\/p>\n At the same time, I believe Iowa’s defense and special teams can put it in some advantageous spots here, helping an offense that lacks overall explosiveness, but has been good at finishing drives when given the chance. I’m not entirely sure how this game will play out. There’s a chance Iowa can muck things up, and we see a similar 20-15 final like when Indiana came to town. What I think is more likely is a game that’s not high-scoring, but high-scoring enough to get us past a total that’s dropped a little too low due to that weather forecast. The Pick: Over 40.5 (-112) at DraftKings<\/a><\/p>\n Lock of the Week<\/p>\n Colorado<\/a> at West Virginia<\/a>: These two teams feel like trains going in opposite directions. West Virginia is coming off an upset road win over Houston<\/a> last week, and looked feisty the week before in a 23-17 loss to TCU<\/a>. Switching to Scotty Fox Jr<\/a>. at quarterback has provided a spark for the offense. You know what else has sparked offenses lately? Facing the Colorado defense.<\/p>\n The Buffaloes have not just been getting beaten lately, they’ve been hammered. Utah beat them 53-7 a couple of weeks ago, and last week it was Arizona beating them 52-17. Now the Buffs need to win out to get to a bowl game, and coach Deion Sanders is starting Julian Lewis<\/a> under center. It’s the true freshman’s first career start, and it’s coming on the road in a tough place to play. He’s talented, but odds are he’s going to make a few mistakes here. Given how terrible Colorado’s defense is right now, I don’t see how the Buffaloes hang within this spread. The Pick: West Virginia -6.5 (-112) at Draftkings<\/p>\n Under of the Week<\/p>\n No. 23 Washington<\/a> at Wisconsin: Nobody wants to watch Wisconsin football these days, and if you’ve watched Wisconsin, you get the sense they don’t much want to play it, either. The Badgers’ offense moves at a glacial pace for two reasons. One is that it helps keep things close because it keeps the other team off the field. The other is that it’s just not all that good, so running more plays doesn’t really work to its benefit.<\/p>\n It’s a key reason why the average Wisconsin game has seen 36.38 points scored this year. That ranks 135th nationally, as only Northern Illinois<\/a> games (35.5 ppg) have seen fewer. The Badgers have not scored more than 14 points in a game since beating Middle Tennessee<\/a> 42-10, and have scored only 7 points in their last three games. Washington is coming off a bye after beating Illinois<\/a> 42-25 the last time out, and I wonder if Jedd Fisch and the Huskies will be happy to oblige the Badgers should they take an early lead. Even if they don’t, 42-3 is still a winner for our purposes. The Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at Fanduel<\/p>\n Contractually Obligated Game of the Week<\/p>\n Sam Houston State<\/a> at Oregon State<\/a>: Is there a hotter team in the country right now than the Oregon State Beavers? Yeah? OK, fine, but the Beavers have won two straight, and I really like their chances of making it three this weekend. Oregon State began the year 0-7, but if you look at those first seven games, it wasn’t exactly an easy slate. Five of the losses came against Power Four competition, and they had to fly across the country to take on Appalachian State<\/a>. But I’ll point out that their two losses to Houston and App State came by 7 points combined.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Sam Houston<\/a> is fighting UMass<\/a> for the right to be considered the worst team in the country. The Bearkats are 0-8 on the year, and all but one of their losses (a 29-27 home loss to Jacksonville State<\/a>) have come by at least 17 points. Last week, they lost at Louisiana Tech<\/a> by 41, and now they’re flying to the Pacific Northwest to face Oregon State. How hyped up do you think this team that has no hopes of reaching a bowl is to play Oregon State right now? I’m guessing there isn’t a whole lot of excitement in that locker room about this one. The Pick: Oregon State -20.5 (-108) at DraftKings<\/p>\n Upset of the Week<\/p>\n Auburn<\/a> at No. 16 Vanderbilt<\/a>: Those situations I mentioned at the top? There are a lot at play here. Vanderbilt is a better team than Auburn, but last week’s loss at Texas<\/a> took some of the wind out of its sails. It still has a chance to reach the College Football<\/a> Playoff, but faces an uphill climb. The Commodores are also coming off a very difficult stretch of games that has seen them play Alabama<\/a>, LSU, Missouri<\/a> and Texas. Say what you want about Auburn, but this defense is salty as hell, and we’ve seen Vandy struggle on offense for most of the last eight quarters it has played.<\/p>\n As for Auburn, the Tigers fired Hugh Freeze after losing to Kentucky<\/a> last week, and that may work to our benefit here. Freeze looked miserable the last few weeks as the guillotine hung over his neck, and you can tell it was affecting the team. Now, DJ Durkin, the team’s defensive coordinator, is serving as the interim, and he has a legit shot of earning the job. The defense has led the Tigers all year, and now that their coordinator is in charge, it wouldn’t shock me to see this team come out with the kind of energy it’s been lacking lately, making this an interesting spot. The Pick: Auburn (+198) at Fanduel<\/p>\n Games of the Week<\/p>\n 0-2<\/p>\n 9-11<\/p>\n -4.10<\/p>\n Lock of the Week<\/p>\n 1-0<\/p>\n 4-6<\/p>\n -2.61<\/p>\n Upset of the Week0-11-9-7.07<\/p>\n Overall<\/p>\n 3-3<\/p>\n 28-32<\/p>\n -7.75<\/p>\n Who will win and cover in each Week 11 college football game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall<\/a> is on a 24-10 roll on college football picks.\u00a0Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When you get to November, you can’t just look at the numbers. 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