{"id":39368,"date":"2025-11-07T08:33:17","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T08:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/39368\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T08:33:17","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T08:33:17","slug":"cfp-rankings-winners-and-losers-plus-byu-texas-tech-steals-spotlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/39368\/","title":{"rendered":"CFP rankings \u2018winners\u2019 and \u2018losers,\u2019 plus BYU-Texas Tech steals spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Until Saturday Newsletter \ud83c\udfc8\u00a0| This is The Athletic\u2019s college football newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive Until Saturday directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Just four full Saturdays left. If you don\u2019t keep an eye on the Georgia Southern-Appalachian State rivalry tonight, don\u2019t come crying to me in February about football abandoning you.<\/p>\n

November Madness: Ducks \u2018down,\u2019 Big 12 \u2018up\u2019<\/p>\n

A funny moment in each college football season from 1998 onward: the midseason evening when we stop referring to teams by their AP rankings and start using their BCS\/CFP rankings instead, meaning various top-25 teams suddenly feel like they\u2019ve just risen or fallen while obliviously playing Battlefield in their dorms.<\/p>\n

First, the main reason these two rankings are different is because of their methods.<\/p>\n

The AP is the sport\u2019s historical gold standard, but it\u2019s put together late Saturday night by writers who almost certainly didn\u2019t have the time to scrutinize every result (and who aren\u2019t debating all their votes with each other).
\nThe CFP committee members get to patiently parse each team, to mostly\u00a0agree on criteria<\/a>\u00a0and to re-parse early games in light of what\u2019s happened since. Of course these products look different.<\/p>\n

Now that we have\u00a0the season\u2019s first CFP rankings<\/a>, let\u2019s assess some things that\u00a0feel\u00a0like changes, since we\u2019d all been used to\u00a0the AP Top 25<\/a>.\u00a0\u201cLosers\u201d and \u201cwinners\u201d from 2025\u2019s CFP debut on Tuesday, based on which teams now rank worse or better than they\u2019d ranked moments prior to Rece Davis reading a list:<\/p>\n

Loser: No. 9 Oregon, 7-1.\u00a0The Ducks rank No. 6 in the AP, where they\u2019d only fallen to No. 8 right after losing to Indiana. Oregon has otherwise won comfortably, but if you\u2019re going to lose by 10 at home, you\u2019d prefer to have beaten somebody better than 5-3 Northwestern. (The Ducks \u201cslipping\u201d a few spots also meant two Big 12 teams, No. 7 BYU and No. 8 Texas Tech, \u201cmoving up\u201d from their AP rankings before playing each other Saturday.)<\/p>\n

Does this matter? No,\u00a0though the revelation did\u00a0hurt the Ducks\u2019 title odds<\/a>. Penn State\u2019s downfall ruined their signature win, but they finish with four of their best chances to impress \u2014 at No. 20 Iowa this week, vs. 6-3 Minnesota, vs. No. 19 USC and at No. 23 Washington. Tough group. A team angling for a bid would finish 3-1 or better, no matter its starting position.<\/p>\n

Winner: No. 10 Notre Dame, 6-2.\u00a0That\u2019s the same ranking that the Irish have in the AP, but any time you start 0-2 and then show up as the top-ranked two-loss team, all while knowing you won\u2019t have to play a 13th game, you\u2019re\u00a0sitting pretty<\/a>. Probably even hosting-another-Playoff-game pretty.<\/p>\n

Does this matter? Yes, though it\u2019s the same ranking we already thought Notre Dame had, so no.\u00a0Facing the 16th-toughest schedule so far (per Austin Mock), the Irish have six multi-score wins and two squeaker losses. Solid recovery by my preseason title pick. \ud83d\ude0e Regardless, they surely have to win out, including against 7-1 Navy on Saturday and No. 24 Pitt.<\/p>\n

Loser: The ACC.\u00a0Virginia \u201cfell\u201d two spots from No. 12 in the AP to No. 14 in the CFP, with that big September win over former No. 8 Florida State now looking merely decent. No. 15 Louisville and No. 17 Georgia Tech \u201cfell\u201d one each.<\/p>\n

Does this matter? No, with a semi-caveat.\u00a0The\u00a0computer composite<\/a> has UVA and GT down in the 20s (!) after various close-call wins. Still, the conference getting multiple bids isn\u2019t out of the question, and at least the top three can\u2019t knock each other out before Charlotte. Besides, if the CFP really had it out for the ACC, it wouldn\u2019t have ranked the AP-unranked Pitt. (Also, if Tech can beat Georgia in a few weeks, this all feels like ancient history.)
\nSemi-caveat:\u00a0No. 18 Miami should rank higher. The 6-2 Canes are No. 12 in the computers, have a win over the CFP\u2019s No. 10 team (Notre Dame), blew out a USF team that might otherwise be ranked and only lost (close) to No. 15 Louisville and on the road to 6-3 SMU. Then again, Miami\u2019s also No. 18 in the AP, so this wasn\u2019t a \u201cfall\u201d and therefore doesn\u2019t fit this exercise anyway.<\/p>\n

Winner: No. 11 Texas, 7-2.\u00a0When teams are clustered together, the committee prefers to stack them by their head-to-head results. So if Oklahoma and Texas are both No. 11-ish teams, the winner of their October meeting gets a nicer perch than the Longhorns\u2019 No. 13 spot in the AP. (When the committee doesn\u2019t do this, as in the case of Miami, it means they think those two teams aren\u2019t actually clustered. I\u2019m just the messenger.)<\/p>\n

Does this matter? No.\u00a0Both Red River rivals already looked like potential 9-3 Playoff teams. Each has two ranked wins and has only lost to ranked teams and\/or on the road. If Texas beats Georgia next week but loses to Texas A&M (or vice versa) or Oklahoma wins at Alabama before losing to Missouri, the armies of \u201cSTRENGTH OF SCHEDULE!\u201d and \u201cSEC BIAS!\u201d will clash ferociously. (And no,\u00a0the reason for the SEC\u2019s good position<\/a>\u00a0isn\u2019t how annoying the conference\u2019s PR was in the summer.)<\/p>\n

Loser: The Group of 5.\u00a0No 7-1 Memphis, unlike the AP, and no 7-1 JMU, 8-1 North Texas, 7-1 San Diego State or 6-2 USF. Also no 4-6 Akron, technically.<\/p>\n

Does this matter? No.\u00a0Though I\u2019d prefer to see representation, the committee might\u2019ve included all those non-Akron teams if it\u2019d done a top-35 ranking. For now, whenever zero G5 teams appear, the committee still names the top rep: Memphis, a good sign for the American\u2019s horde of contenders. (Also, for those who believe the CFP manipulates its rankings in order to promote upcoming games: Note it didn\u2019t rank Navy during Notre Dame week.)<\/p>\n

Winner: No. 20 Iowa, 6-2.\u00a0Soaring forth from the also-receiving-votes outskirts of the AP. Overdue recognition for a team with a typically great defense and\u00a0alarmingly competent offense<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Does this matter? Maybe a little. But it would feel bad to break the streak of saying no.\u00a0Winning upcoming games against Oregon, USC and 6-3 Nebraska would\u2019ve gotten the committee\u2019s attention regardless.<\/p>\n

Winner: No. 13 Utah, 7-2.\u00a0The week\u2019s biggest \u201cjump,\u201d from No. 17 in the AP. About time we caught on to the Utes crushing everything except the Big 12\u2019s two top-eight teams. In fact, Utah\u2019s No. 11 in the computers.<\/p>\n

Does this matter? Maybe yes, actually. Though not at the moment. So still no.\u00a0The Utes are somewhat surprisingly on the verge of a bid already, a good sign that the CFP\u2019s supposed new emphasis on schedule strength\u00a0isn\u2019t hurting the Big 12<\/a>. But even if they\u2019d started lower, perhaps they still could\u2019ve made it in by finishing with wins at 5-4 Baylor, against 4-5 Kansas State and at 5-4 Kansas.
\nQuick Snaps<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfa0 Two morsels from Chris Vannini\u2019s\u00a0coaching-carousel notebook<\/a>: Few in the industry are taking the Louisiana governor drama all that seriously, and Curt Cignetti\u2019s Indiana contract has an interesting incentive, letting him exit to another team without buying himself out if he makes a CFP semifinal and the Hoosiers don\u2019t then give him a top-three salary.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd33 \u201cMy California liberal-arts-college mind cannot comprehend some of the numbers in this,\u201d said my colleague Torrey Hart about Ira Gorawara\u2019s report on\u00a0Tuscaloosa\u2019s sorority-influencer-industrial complex<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udde2 Early signing day is in 27 days. Look alive! Current No. 1 class: still USC! As Grace Raynor explains in\u00a0her new recruiting catch-up<\/a>, watch out for Georgia and Texas A&M. Also, the next coaches at LSU and Florida might have chances to hold together top-15 classes.<\/p>\n

How one of the most chaotic midseason carousels ever is\u00a0affecting QB recruiting<\/a>. Few stable opportunities: \u201cThere are only four Power 4 schools that have not fired a head coach this season that do not currently have a quarterback in their class.\u201d<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcf0 News:<\/p>\n

Auburn and Notre Dame will meet\u00a0for the first times ever<\/a>, and these aren\u2019t being scheduled for 2077 and 2099, as is the CFB custom, but for 2027 and 2028.
\nNext season, WMU-Michigan is moving from Germany\u00a0back to Ann Arbor<\/a> \u201cafter fan pushback.\u201d
\n\u201cThe prediction market Kalshi has\u00a0caught the attention of the NCAA<\/a>, which issued a letter last week requesting changes to how Kalshi describes its sports markets and seeking clarification on integrity safeguards against gambling risks.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u23f0\u00a0New NFL mock draft<\/a>\u00a0led by five straight linemen and\/or defenders, including Ohio State\u2019s Arvell Reese at No. 1 and Caleb Downs at No. 5. First QB: Indiana\u2019s Fernando Mendoza.<\/p>\n

The Watch Grid: Big 12 so up, it\u2019s stolen the weekend spotlight<\/p>\n

For the second Saturday in a row, a game that felt in August like it might define the season will instead barely define its time slot. Last week it was Penn State-Ohio State, and now it\u2019s \u2026 well, both Florida State-Clemson and LSU-Alabama. (Unless the Tigers have become truly mediocre enough to beat Kalen DeBoer, the coach who only loses to mediocre teams.)<\/p>\n

Having said that, it will be difficult to pry my sinful eyes away from FSU-Clemson, when either the former No. 7 Noles become 4-5 or the former No. 4 Tigers reach 3-6. Clemson\u2019s favored by 2.5, per BetMGM. Don\u2019t act like you\u2019re too good of a person to watch.<\/p>\n

Still, as mentioned above, there is an actual season-definer earlier in the day:<\/p>\n

The 8-1 Red Raiders, 10-point home favorites despite the Second Amendment\u00a0no longer applying to tortillas<\/a>, can assert themselves as the clear Big 12 favorites and set up a potential rematch against BYU, maybe even with a top-four seed on the line. With an upset, the Cougars would be 9-0 and very close to clinching a previously unexpected bid.<\/p>\n

If you’re watching Texas Tech for the first time this season, know\u00a0this team is elite at defense<\/a>, getting tons of pressure without blitzing often. Still not tired of noting this is the opposite of TTU’s Mike Leach days.
\nAlso, know BYU’s true freshman starting quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, wears No. 47. Sporting a fullback’s number actually helps him access fullback mindset.\u00a0No, for real<\/a>.
\nThese Big 12 rivals (in the loosest sense of the word) don’t have a lot in common, but\u00a0they came together to raise money<\/a>\u00a0for Texas Tech\u2019s barber, Ivan Ortiz, and his wife, Maddie Ortiz, after her recent car crash.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere, this really is a great Saturday schedule\u00a0(they’re all great Saturday schedules, Brent), once you allow yourself to view the late-night games through the crucial lens of comedy.<\/p>\n

Tulane at Memphis (-3.5) is one of the biggest G5 games left, Texas A&M (6.5) can juuust about clinch a Playoff spot (or inject some chaos atop the SEC race) and even the finale between San Diego State (-6.5) and Hawaii pairs bowl-eligible teams. And hey, there’s plenty of historical gambling data that suggests\u00a0Navy\u00a0might give the Irish much more of a fight<\/a>\u00a0than that 26.5-point spread suggests.<\/p>\n

In\u00a0Manny Navarro’s weekend predictions<\/a>,\u00a0Iowa (+6.5) upsets Oregon.<\/p>\n

Finally, if you or someone you love has been afflicted by YouTube TV not carrying ESPN networks,\u00a0fill out this survey<\/a>\u00a0for us. With that, I’ll see you Sunday. Holler at untilsaturday@theathletic.com if you want.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Until Saturday? Check out\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>, too.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Until Saturday Newsletter \ud83c\udfc8\u00a0| This is The Athletic\u2019s college football newsletter. Sign up here to receive Until Saturday…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39369,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[261,27,29,28],"class_list":{"0":"post-39368","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-texas","8":"tag-college-football","9":"tag-texas","10":"tag-texas-headlines","11":"tag-texas-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39368\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}