Next, in a Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR<\/a>) poll taken from July 15-17, Talarico emerged with a five-point lead 45-40. The Fox poll landed a week later.<\/p>\n This all leaves Talarico ahead by 0.9 percent in the Real Clear Politics average.<\/p>\n Fox also asked the favorable-unfavorable question about the Republican and Democratic parties. Republicans were at 48% favorable and 50% unfavorable while Democrats polled a surpassingly close 45% favorable, but also were at 54% \u201cunfavorable.\u201d This follows an ongoing national trend in which people are increasingly negative about Republicans, but still like Democrats less.<\/p>\n Ken Paxton left and Greg Abbott right \u2013 screenshots from their campaign websites. Photo at top is screenshot from Talarico\u2019s campaign website.<\/p>\n Despite Media Narrative Talarico Pulling Huge Portion of Black Vote<\/p>\n One of the biggest line items in the poll was Talarico pulling 87% of the Black vote.\u00a0<\/p>\n That builds on the 67% of the Black vote he got in the June Texas Politics Project poll. As Houston Public Media noted<\/a> in reporting on that poll, Talarico\u2019s 67% figure with Black voters was 20 points ahead of where Beto O\u2019Rourke was at the same time in his legendary but still losing effort against Ted Cruz in 2018. Nonetheless a widespread media narrative persisted that Talarico is in trouble with Black voters.<\/p>\n That view was primarily based on two things: a single Black person heckling Talarico at an event in Houston \u2014 where he was welcomed with a standing ovation; and on the simple-minded belief that a large portion of Black voters would reject Talarico just because he defeated a Black person, Jasmine Crockett, in the primary. We\u2019ll see if Talarico\u2019s 87% in the Fox News poll ends that narrative.\u00a0<\/p>\n By the way it looks like the Austin American-Statesman was the first to break<\/a> from the media herd on that narrative. They put up a story Friday night (July 31) headlined, \u201cFox News poll shows strong Black voter support for Talarico as he leads Paxton.\u201d<\/p>\n Talarico has a right to be proud of his standing with Black voters and he appears ready to spend a significant portion of his campaign funds to help drive a large Black turnout, in the only poll that really counts. He almost certainly cannot win without a large Black turnout with a big margin in his favor. That alone though will not likely be enough to put Talarico over the top. He will have to convince a significant number of people that tend to vote Republican.<\/p>\n There are some indications in the Fox News poll as to how Talarico is doing with such voters, but it\u2019s far too early to be conclusive.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Margin to Win<\/p>\n Promisingly for Talarico, he is pulling 68% of independents in the Fox poll. Meanwhile virtually all Democrats, 98%, support Talarico, but fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton, 89%. If Paxton can\u2019t increase his numbers with Republicans and Independents then he could truly be in trouble.\u00a0<\/p>\n Talarico is also pulling 63% of \u201cmoderates,\u201d who are not broken out by party in Fox\u2019s reporting on the poll. Meanwhile, \u201cpeople under 30\u201d support Talarico at 62%. Critically, with \u201cHispanic Voters\u201d \u2014 a large and crucially important group of voters \u2014 Talarico is pulling 59%.\u00a0<\/p>\n Another hopeful sign for Talarico is that he pulled 48% of \u201cmen\u201d in the Fox poll. That is better than Democrats normally do. With women, he is pulling 54%.<\/p>\n Talarico\u2019s worst group in the Fox poll is \u201cwhite evangelicals\u201d at 21%. But, of course they were always likely to stick with the guy whose wife divorced him on \u201cBiblical\u201d grounds, that being Ken Paxton for any who are just now tuning in. It would seem though that Talarico\u2019s open Christianity isn\u2019t paying off for him, at least not with white evangelicals. He is doing better with \u201cregular worship attenders\u201d at 42%, but this number is probably skewed upward somewhat by Talarico\u2019s Black support.<\/p>\n So, right now things are looking pretty good for Talarico. In fact he appears to be in a more favorable place than any Democrat during the Texas Democratic Party\u2019s three decades long losing streak in statewide races. He has shown considerable vision and savvy getting to the point he has.\u00a0<\/p>\n Republican attacks have not hit home so far. That might be because some of them are so bizarre. For instance Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick saying he is certain Talarico will \u201cgo to hell<\/a>.\u201d And, a Tennessee pastor, Brooks Potteiger said he wants Talarico to be \u201ccrucified<\/a> with Christ.\u201d Potteiger had a Biblical reference that he used to try and explain what he meant. Nonetheless, it sure appears that he assigned Talarico a role that he didn\u2019t intend. And, of course the Texas Lieutenant Governor does not have the power to send people to hell. These attacks may be working with \u201cwhite evangelicals,\u201d but, if so, don\u2019t appear to be spreading much further.\u00a0<\/p>\n But, there\u2019s a long way to go. Fox quoted Republican pollster Daron Shaw saying that Paxton\u2019s campaign against John Cornyn \u201cleft scars.\u201d Consequently, \u201cHe (Paxton) has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party\u2019s far left.\u201d<\/p>\n Yes, in the weeks ahead Republicans will be trying to paint Talarico as \u201cfar left\u201d and way out of the mainstream. There is some material for them to use. Paxton though might not be a good messenger to deliver that or any other message. Governor Abbott is historically pretty effective at negative campaigning. And, while Paxton and Cornyn faced off in the Republican primary, Abbott stepped in and lobbed occasional political grenades at Talarico. In fact from the public view he appears to be focusing more on the Senate race than his own. The governor may soon, however, have to focus on his own race. He may have to abandon his strategy of ignoring his Democratic opponent.<\/p>\n The Hinojosa Campaign<\/p>\n Hinojosa should not be written off. She is a clear underdog with nowhere near the amount of money Talarico has raised, not to mention Abbott. But, the Fox poll could give her a fundraising boost. It would be unwise to underestimate her. She is not a knee jerk far left Democrat. She\u2019s probably got less to attack than Talarico does. And, she is thoughtful and doesn\u2019t always go with the crowd.\u00a0<\/p>\n Gina Hinojosa \u2013 screenshot from her campaign website<\/p>\n Hinojosa also understands that in order to win she needs to win over some people who usually vote Republican, including for Trump. For instance on her campaign website she says \u201cI fight for neighborhood schools alongside both union teachers and MAGA moms \u2013 because it doesn\u2019t matter what political party you are, it\u2019s about putting our kids first.\u201d\u00a0Hinojosa is also a strong proponent of health care and is taking it to Abbott on \u201ccorruption.\u201d<\/p>\n Also, Hinojosa grew up in the Rio Grande Valley, still has family there and announced her campaign from her native town of Brownsville. Those connections should help her in a very key area. In addition Hinojosa appears capable of taking the fight to Abbott, who has tried to ignore her so far.<\/p>\n So, only time will tell whether Talarico and possibly Hinojosa make history by breaking the Republicans\u2019 32-year long winning streak in statewide races \u2014 38 years in US Senate races.<\/p>\n But this could be the year.<\/p>\n _____________________________<\/p>\n Folks: Local journalism is increasing important in the current world. Please consider subscribing or donating to the\u00a0Austin Independent. It will help us, for example, to expand our readership base and to pay for important public information requests. To subscribe or donate, click\u00a0here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ken-Paxton-from-his-campaign-website-small.jpeg\")
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