{"id":397593,"date":"2026-08-04T17:46:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T17:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/397593\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T17:46:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T17:46:09","slug":"a-blue-texas-will-democrats-finally-catch-their-white-whale-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/397593\/","title":{"rendered":"A blue Texas: Will Democrats finally catch their white whale this year?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A blue Texas<\/a> in 2026 is looking less and less like a pipe dream, after four consecutive polls<\/a> released in the last week have shown Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, a poll<\/a> conducted by Texas Southern University found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%. That followed a Wedgewood Polls survey<\/a> from Monday showing Talarico with a\u00a0 48%-to-46% lead, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll<\/a> from last week showing Talarico ahead of Paxton, 45% to 40%, and a survey<\/a> from Fox News that showed Talarico up over Paxton by a 51%-to-48% margin.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Fox News poll\u2014which despite Fox\u2019s right-wing bent is actually one of the more accurate and respected of media organization-funded polls\u2014was perhaps the most concerning of all for Republicans as it had Talarico over the crucial 50% mark.<\/p>\n

\"TexasTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks during a primary runoff election night event May 26, in Plano, Texas. AP<\/p>\n

You know things are bad for Paxton when a spokesperson for his campaign told<\/a> Axios that, \u201cThe only poll that matters is Nov. 3.\u201d<\/p>\n

That cliche is No. 2 on Inside Election\u2019s infamous list of \u201c10 things losing candidates say<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis doesn\u2019t guarantee defeat in the upcoming election, but it means you are losing the race at the time and have no empirical evidence to the contrary,\u201d Inside Elections\u2019 Editor-in-Chief Nathan Gonzales wrote in the 2013 article that has stood the test of time. \u201cIt\u2019s up to the candidate to change the dynamic of the race.\u201d<\/p>\n

Indeed, after this latest spate of polls, even Republicans admit that Talarico would win if the election was held today.<\/p>\n

\u201cLook, it\u2019s easy to imagine that the partisanship of the state or undecideds will bring this back home, but right now Talarico has a small lead in virtually every poll and if the election were held today, he\u2019d probably win. That\u2019s the situation,\u201d GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote<\/a> Tuesday in a post on X.<\/p>\n

Yet despite that fact, not a single Republican super PAC has stepped in<\/a> to help Paxton who is struggling to raise money as the GOP donor class loathes the scandal-plagued politician<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In fact, on Tuesday, AFP Action\u2014the super PAC tied to the billionaire Koch brothers\u2014announced<\/a> $5.6 million in campaign ad reservations in five Senate races. And you guessed it, Texas is not on the list\u2014though Montana is, suggesting Republicans are now nervous about that seat (an article for another day).<\/p>\n

Given that Paxton is behind, one would think that President Donald Trump would step in to help Paxton, who he endorsed<\/a> at the eleventh hour over the objections<\/a> of Republican leaders and campaign operatives who feared Paxton\u2019s personal shortcomings could cost the party a Senate seat.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly told Trump to do after Trump waded into that primary against Thune\u2019s wishes.<\/p>\n

\u201cRepublicans may keep Texas, but you broke it, you buy it. MAGA Inc. just became Texas Inc.,\u201d an unnamed Thune ally told<\/a> Axios in May, after Trump made his Paxton endorsement.<\/p>\n

Yet Trump has yet to spend a dime of his massive war chest<\/a> to help Paxton\u2014or any other Republicans in competitive reelection battles, for that matter. He\u2019s used the money only to try to defeat GOP politicians who he\u2019s deemed insufficiently loyal to him, proving that he cares more about soothing his massive ego than helping his party.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Related | Trump is keeping his war chest from Republicans<\/a><\/p>\n

Talarico, for his part, has amassed a massive war chest and is preparing for the onslaught of bizarre Republican attacks about his manliness<\/a> that the GOP hopes will push Paxton over the finish line.<\/p>\n

And in the process, he\u2019s taking every opportunity he gets to remind voters of just how corrupt and amoral Paxton is.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe only thing worse than Ken Paxton\u2019s personal cheating is his public cheating,\u201d Talarico said<\/a> Monday night on MS NOW. \u201cToday is the anniversary of his famous mugshot\u2014that was because he was indicted for investment fraud. What\u2019s fascinating about that story is that he was scamming his own friends. He convinced his own friends to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into a tech company, and then he didn\u2019t tell them that he was getting a commission off those investments.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2068\u2068.@JamesTalarico<\/a>: The only thing worse than Ken Paxton’s personal cheating is his public cheating. <\/p>\n

Today is the the anniversary of his famous mugshot \u2014 that was because he was indicted for investment fraud. What’s fascinating about that story is that he was scamming his own\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/p5vSALjaEO<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/jmiEvXu2bg<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) August 4, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Talarico added, \u201cIf Ken Paxton is willing to scam his own friends for a quick buck, what makes you think he\u2019s not going to scam you in the United States Senate?\u2069\u201d<\/p>\n

And that, my friends, is why Texas is in play in November.<\/p>\n

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