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This weather satellite photo of the Gulf of Mexico taken Thursday morning shows a relatively quiet sky over Texas, pictured in the upper left.<\/p>\n
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites\/CIRA and NOAA<\/p>\n
Texas hurricane odds have been nearly cut in half since April. That doesn\u2019t mean the threat is over, though<\/a>.<\/p>\n When Colorado State University issued its highly regarded Atlantic hurricane season forecast<\/a> initially in April, the statistical odds of a hurricane affecting the Texas Gulf Coast were more than twice what they are today. Since then, confidence has steadily grown that a strengthening El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o will continue creating conditions less favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, lowering the risk of a Texas hurricane with each monthly outlook.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The trend is real, but it doesn\u2019t mean the state is in the clear.<\/p>\n How the Texas hurricane risk has changed since April<\/p>\n CSU\u2019s April forecast<\/a> gave Texas a 27% chance of experiencing a hurricane within 50 miles of its coastline. That probability fell to 20% in June<\/a>, 14% in July<\/a> and now stands at 13% in the university\u2019s final seasonal outlook\u00a0\u2014 well below the long-term average but far from zero.<\/p>\n The probability of a major hurricane has followed the same trend, falling from 11% in April to 5% in August.<\/p>\n This chart shows Colorado State University\u2019s odds of a tropical landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast. These numbers have dropped considerably since CSU\u2019s first seasonal outlook was released in April.<\/p>\n Colorado State University \/ Justin Ballard<\/p>\n In other words, the risk of a major hurricane affecting Texas is now less than half of what\u00a0CSU projected at the start of the season.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n These projections come after the emergence in the Gulf of Mexico of Tropical Storm Arthur in June and Tropical Storm Bertha in July, both of which spawned heavy rainfall in\u00a0Texas.<\/p>\n The decline reflects both increasing confidence in a strong El Ni\u00f1o and the passage of time. El Ni\u00f1o is expected to continue creating an atmosphere less favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, and each quiet week that passes leaves fewer opportunities for storms to develop before the season ends Nov. 30.<\/p>\n Projected number of named storms<\/p>\n The updated CSU seasonal forecast released Wednesday leaves the basin-wide outlook unchanged<\/a> from July: nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane. Less than 24 hours later, NOAA also maintained its expectation\u00a0for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season<\/a>, reinforcing the growing consensus that El Ni\u00f1o will continue creating conditions less favorable for Atlantic hurricanes through the season\u2019s peak.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The agreement between CSU and NOAA reflects growing confidence that the large-scale climate pattern expected this spring has largely materialized, leaving little reason for either outlook\u00a0to change significantly heading into the busiest stretch of hurricane season.<\/p>\n SEASONAL CONNECTION: What would a stronger El Ni\u00f1o mean for Texas hurricane season or the chances of a Houston snowfall?<\/a><\/p>\n The biggest shift came in July, when CSU sharply lowered its seasonal outlook. The forecast was lowered from 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes to nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane as confidence grew that El Ni\u00f1o would dominate the tropical Atlantic through the heart of hurricane season.<\/p>\n El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o remains the dominant influence<\/p>\n The biggest change since spring hasn\u2019t been Atlantic water temperatures. It\u2019s been the atmosphere.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<\/p>\n