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NOAA\u2019s Coral Reef Watch monitors global sea-surface temperature anomalies. As of Tuesday, it showed widespread above-average ocean temperatures across much of the world\u2019s oceans, including a pronounced band of unusually warm water stretching across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific \u2014 a hallmark of the ongoing El Ni\u00f1o. Cooler waters (shown in blue) are scattered across parts of the western Pacific and Southern Ocean.<\/p>\n
NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch<\/p>\n
Houston has reached 100 degrees only once so far in 2026<\/a>\u00a0after recently enduring back-to-back summers with prolonged heat waves in 2022 and 2023. The main difference this year has been the emergence of what is shaping up to be a \u201csuper El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o.\u201d So, is the strengthening El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o helping Southeast Texas avoid triple-digit heat?<\/p>\n History suggests it may improve the odds, but the answer isn\u2019t nearly as clear-cut as it is for hurricanes. While many El Ni\u00f1o summers have produced few or no 100-degree days in Houston, others have featured prolonged periods of extreme heat. And because El Ni\u00f1o summers are relatively uncommon<\/a>, there simply isn\u2019t a large enough sample to draw firm statistical conclusions.<\/p>\n To better understand the relationship, we looked at\u00a0weather records from every meteorological summer (the calendar months of June, July and August) since 1950 when El Ni\u00f1o was present. We then compared them to Houston\u2019s weather averages from 1991-2020<\/a>, which are the climate benchmarks the National Weather Service currently uses as 30-year \u201cnormal\u201d values.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Does El Ni\u00f1o mean fewer 100-degree days in Houston?<\/p>\n Will El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o, the cyclical cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical waters of the\u00a0eastern Pacific Ocean, lead to fewer 100-degree days in Houston? Sometimes.<\/p>\n Houston averages about 6.3 days at or above 100 degrees during meteorological summer, based on the 1991-2020 climate period.<\/p>\n The historical record during El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o events reveals a mixed picture.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Of the 17 El Ni\u00f1o summers examined, eight never reached 100 degrees at all. Another seven recorded just one or two triple-digit days\u00a0\u2014 fewer than Houston experiences during a typical summer.<\/p>\n ‘DOG DAYS’ EXPLAINED: What are the dog days of summer? 5 things every Texan should know.<\/a><\/p>\n Taken together, those summers suggest\u00a0El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o may improve the odds of avoiding prolonged stretches of extreme heat.<\/p>\n But history also shows El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t guarantee relief.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The two biggest exceptions came in 2015 and 2023. The moderate El Ni\u00f1o summer of 2015 produced 10 days at or above 100 degrees in Houston. Even more striking was 2023, when Bush Intercontinental Airport reached the century mark on 38 days during meteorological summer despite El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o already being established. By the time cooler fall weather arrived, that total had climbed to 45\u00a0\u2014 just one day shy of the record<\/a> set in 2011.<\/p>\n That summer stands apart from the rest of the El Ni\u00f1o record, illustrating how a single outlier can shape conclusions drawn from such a limited sample.<\/p>\n Those exceptions highlight an important point: El Ni\u00f1o influences the atmosphere, but it isn\u2019t the only factor determining how hot Houston becomes.<\/p>\n What history says about El Ni\u00f1o and Houston heat<\/p>\n Unlike hurricanes, where El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s influence is well established<\/a>, summer temperatures depend on a much broader collection of weather patterns.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n Persistent upper-level ridging of high air pressure over Texas, along with soil moisture, rainfall, cloud cover and day-to-day weather patterns, all influence whether temperatures repeatedly climb into the triple digits. El Ni\u00f1o can affect those ingredients, but it doesn\u2019t control them.<\/p>\n This NOAA diagram shows how high atmospheric pressure \u2014 known as a heat dome \u2014 can act as a cap, allowing heat to build at the Earth’s surface. Persistent heat domes are responsible for bringing Houston some of its hottest and driest days of summer.<\/p>\n NOAA<\/p>\n That helps explain why Houston\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o summers have varied so dramatically.<\/p>\n Some El Ni\u00f1o summers were cooler than the city\u2019s modern climate normals, while others were warmer. Seasonal rainfall totals also ranged from just over 6 inches to more than 21 inches, underscoring how much variability exists from one El Ni\u00f1o summer to the next.<\/p>\n The relatively small sample size adds another layer of uncertainty.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<\/p>\n