A spate of recent polls signals that Democrats are gaining traction in both the races for United States Senate and the governor\u2019s mansion in Texas, turning a reliably Republican state into a battleground ahead of the November midterm elections.<\/p>\n
On Friday, the nonpartisan research initiative\u00a0Texas Pulse, helmed in part by the Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service, released its latest public opinion survey into the state\u2019s midterm races.<\/p>\n
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It found that James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, is now leading the US Senate race by four points, with 47 percent support. His Republican rival, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, trailed at 43 percent.<\/p>\n
Those statistics suggested growing momentum for Talarico, who was tied with Paxton in an earlier Texas Pulse poll from June.<\/p>\n
Texas Pulse\u2019s findings echo another poll, released on Thursday, that showed Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 45 percent. Another 6 percent of respondents said they were undecided.<\/p>\n
That poll, conducted by the research firms YouGov and 254 Labs, suggested that Talarico had a significant advantage among undecided and independent voters in the Lone Star State.<\/p>\n
An estimated 57 percent of independent voters preferred the Democratic candidate over his Republican competitor, although 20 percent said they remained undecided.<\/p>\n
A Fox News poll from late July similarly found that 68 percent of independents are getting behind Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative.<\/p>\n
While polls can vary dramatically in the months leading up to an election, the latest survey results are likely to serve as a bellwether for Democratic odds in November\u2019s midterms.<\/p>\n
The left-leaning party is hoping to wrest both chambers of Congress from Republican control.<\/p>\n
Should Democrats succeed in doing so, their majorities could serve as a bulwark against President Donald Trump\u2019s legislative agenda during the final two years of his presidency.<\/p>\n
But analysts believe the Senate may be more difficult to flip than the House of Representatives. While all 435 seats in the House are up for grabs in November, only a third of the Senate is on the ballot.<\/p>\n
That makes every Senate race critical to either party maintaining \u2014 or retaking \u2014 control of the upper chamber.<\/p>\n
Cost of living concerns<\/p>\n
Texas has long-established bona fides as a Republican stronghold. No Democrat has held statewide office in Texas in more than three decades.<\/p>\n
But the open Senate seat in Texas has created an unusually competitive race for Democrats.<\/p>\n
Paxton, the Trump-endorsed candidate, defeated the incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary in May.<\/p>\n
But the longtime state attorney general has generated concerns among Republicans about his ability to appeal to centrist voters.<\/p>\n
Paxton\u2019s career in politics has been riddled with corruption scandals. During his tenure as the state\u2019s attorney general, he has faced allegations of abuse of office and misconduct involving a political donor, the latter of which resulted in his impeachment \u2014 though he was not removed from office.<\/p>\n
He also faced a separate, nearly decade-long securities fraud case that was dismissed last year. His support for the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and accusations of adultery have also been sources of criticism.<\/p>\n
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll, released last week, found Paxton trailing Talarico by five points, 45 percent to 40 percent.<\/p>\n
Notably, that poll suggested that the Democrat leads by 34 percentage points among self-described moderates, with 54 percent support to Paxton\u2019s 20 percent.<\/p>\n
Experts like Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster for Texas Public Opinion Research, credit that upward momentum to a solid campaign pitch.<\/p>\n
\u201cTalarico is up because he\u2019s running the race every Democrat in this country should be running. When they go on TV, podcasts and talk to reporters, they should focus on affordability. If we can win on affordability, we can win elections,\u201d Smith told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n