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What Polling Shows<\/p>\nDemocrat James Talarico\u2019s momentum in the Texas race for U.S. Senate has now moved beyond recent polling and into the prediction markets. The Democrat has surged ahead of Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket this week for the first time.<\/p>\n
Talarico is priced at roughly a 56 percent chance of winning compared with 44 percent for Paxton on Kalshi. This marks the first time Talarico has held the lead on Kalshi, and it comes after weeks of increasingly competitive polling in a state Republicans have dominated for decades. The flip for Talarico occurred roughly as Tuesday began.<\/p>\n
On Polymarket, Talarico has a 52 percent chance compared to Paxton’s 48 percent. The initial tilt toward the Democrat occurred around 2:30 p.m. Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Read More on News<\/p>\n
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science and in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, told Newsweek via email on Wednesday, “This would be a stunning flip–clearly the biggest in the midterms — and it could be part of a broader wave of support to Democrats in the House and Senate.<\/p>\n
“It might be that Paxton is a flawed candidate and we should treat each of the Senate races in isolation. But any sign of Texas showing the political color blue would be an earthquake that will shake up Republican politics, and it gives the Democrats the best shot yet for a majority in the Senate, to enable them to block any unacceptable judicial appointments by Trump.”<\/p>\n
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, also told Newsweek via email on Wednesday: “The sincere investors in political futures markets understand that moderate candidates usually outperform fringe candidates in high-turnout contests. Republican prospects in Texas have dipped after primary voters selected Paxton, just as Democratic prospects jumped in Wisconsin after the rejection of Francesca Hong. The futures markets shifted to reflect each shock to the system, quickly in the Wisconsin case, more gradually for Texas. Still, the investors in these political futures markets can get it wrong, just as pollsters sometimes get it wrong.”<\/p>\n
Why It Matters<\/p>\n
Texas, however, is a Republican stronghold. President Donald Trump won the state in the 2024 presidential election by double digits, and a Democrat has not won a Senate seat in the Lone Star State in decades. <\/p>\n
Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority\u2014excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats\u2014and Democrats view flipping the Texas seat as a potential pathway to reclaiming the upper chamber, while Republicans see it as essential to maintaining their lead. <\/p>\n
Newsweek reached out to both Paxton and Talarico’s campaigns via email for comment on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
What Polling Shows<\/p>\n
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released last month<\/a> put Talarico ahead with 45 percent to 40 percent, while a subsequent Fox News poll <\/a>shows the Democrat leading Paxton 51 percent to 48 percent, within the survey’s margin of error. Among those who are both extremely motivated and extremely interested to vote, Talarico leads 53 percent to 47 percent in both groups in the Fox analysis.<\/p>\n The Fox poll surveyed 1,006 Texas registered voters from July 23 to July 27 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.<\/p>\n A recent Texas Pulse survey<\/a> conducted by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School also showed Talarico leading Paxton, 47 percent to 43 percent among likely Texas voters, marking a notable shift from the same pollster’s June survey, when the two candidates were tied at 46 percent.<\/p>\n The poll surveyed 619 likely Texas voters from July 27 to July 30 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, meaning the poll can be viewed as evidence of a tight race rather than Talarico establishing a durable lead that will be reflected on Election Day.<\/p>\n The prediction-market move is also showing up elsewhere. Decision Desk HQ has likewise characterized the race as a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly favored in its latest forecast on Wednesday. The Cook Political Report has the race categorized as Lean Republican.<\/p>\n What This Could Mean for Paxton <\/p>\n For Paxton, the biggest challenge may be consolidating moderates and independents after a bruising primary campaign against Senator John Cornyn. The Texas Pulse survey showed Talarico gaining ground with independents, up 23 points compared to 14 points in June.<\/p>\n The Republican has also faced renewed scrutiny over his political baggage, while Talarico\u2019s campaign has raised substantially more money <\/a>than Paxton\u2019s, giving Democrats an opportunity to turn the tightening numbers into a sustained statewide operation.<\/p>\n None of this means Texas is suddenly guaranteed to turn blue. Republicans still have the state\u2019s underlying partisan advantage, and prediction-market prices can move rapidly on relatively small amounts of new information. But the significance of the latest flips indicate that Talarico is no longer merely the front-runner in individual polls\u2014he is now leading in prediction markets.<\/p>\n The Texas race is increasingly looking like one of the most consequential\u2014and genuinely competitive\u2014U.S. Senate contests of the year.<\/p>\n