It is August, and any team will accept handouts, so the Houston Astros took what the San Francisco Giants were willing to give them.<\/p>\n
The Giants failed to turn a tailor-made double play, dropped a fly ball and handed Houston the tying run in the seventh inning of Wednesday\u2019s West Coast road trip finale. Sacrifice flies from substitute second baseman Nick Allen and waiver claim Nelson Vel\u00e1zquez represented the extent of the Astros\u2019 offense. Sometimes, nothing else is required. Not with a bullpen pitching as well as Houston\u2019s and not against a team that has already surrendered its season.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s an uncomfortable way to win, but there are no style points in professional sports. The Astros do not mind that their run differential is minus-27. Being in first place matters more. Such is life in the American League West, where the bottom two teams in the division mirror the Giants\u2019 misery.<\/p>\n
The Angels and A\u2019s come to Daikin Park this week. The scuffling Seattle Mariners precede them. It is the sort of soft schedule that leaves the Astros prime to create more cushion atop this awful division.<\/p>\n
Before they attempt to do so, a few thoughts:<\/p>\n
It can\u2019t be overstated how top-heavy Houston\u2019s offense is<\/p>\n
Entering Wednesday, the Astros had extracted 16.9 WAR from all of their position players, according to FanGraphs. Baseball-Reference measured the group as worth 17.9 WAR.<\/p>\n
Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pe\u00f1a and Isaac Paredes are responsible for 11.3 fWAR or 11.2 bWAR. (Bear in mind, 25 other Astros players have taken a plate appearance and tallied some WAR.)<\/p>\n
WAR is not everything, but the disparity crystallizes what is apparent to anyone watching this club: The Astros struggle to function if Alvarez, Pe\u00f1a and Paredes are neutralized. They are the club\u2019s three best hitters. Alvarez is the presumptive favorite for AL MVP, while Pe\u00f1a and Paredes were All-Stars last season.<\/p>\n
Teams are supposed to be carried by their best players, but the extent to which these three are buoying the Astros seems unsustainable. Pe\u00f1a, Alvarez and Paredes are the first three hitters in Houston\u2019s lineup. No offense in baseball has a higher OPS from the batting order\u2019s top three spots than Houston\u2019s .840 clip.<\/p>\n
Slots four through nine, however, have combined for a .674 OPS. Only six offenses in the sport have received less production from those batting order positions. The Astros have cycled through nine cleanup hitters and continue a carousel of outfielders.<\/p>\n
Astros Batting Order Production<\/p>\n
Batting Order Spots<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
OPS<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
MLB Rank<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
1-3<\/p>\n
.838<\/p>\n
1<\/p>\n
4-6<\/p>\n
.683<\/p>\n
23<\/p>\n
7-9<\/p>\n
.663<\/p>\n
18<\/p>\n
Finding offensive consistency is one of Houston\u2019s biggest objectives across the final 40 games. This road trip represented the dangers of not doing so. Pe\u00f1a spent most of the six games in a brutal 3-for-38 funk. Alvarez continued his season-long stretch of 13 games without a home run.<\/p>\n
The Astros responded by scoring two or fewer runs in four of six games, reinforcing the importance of their big three.<\/p>\n
The Astros have to be mindful of Peter Lambert\u2019s workload<\/p>\n
Peter Lambert has been a revelation and the savior of Houston\u2019s starting rotation, but he is creeping toward a threshold he has not crossed in eight years.<\/p>\n
Lambert last logged 130 innings in 2018, when he threw 142 1\/3 frames between Double A and Triple A as a prospect in the Colorado Rockies\u2019 organization. In the eight years since, he\u2019s thrown 100 innings twice: last season when he pitched for the Yakult Swallows in Nippon Professional Baseball and now, during his breakout.<\/p>\n
Lambert will enter his start against the Mariners on Friday with 113 2\/3 innings pitched. After his effectiveness dipped on Saturday in San Diego, he brushed off questions about his workload.<\/p>\n
\u201cI feel great physically, mentally, all the way around,\u201d he said. \u201cI feel pretty good.\u201d<\/p>\n
Every player in Lambert\u2019s situation will say something similar. Pitchers routinely throw through fatigue, even those with bigger career workloads than Lambert. There are no outward signs of his stuff declining \u2014 in fact, his four-seam fastball velocity ticked up against the Padres \u2014 and this is a 29-year-old veteran of almost 10 professional seasons, not a prospect without much experience.<\/p>\n
Still, Lambert is important for Houston\u2019s starting rotation. He is the only Astros pitcher to throw 100 innings this season, sports a 135 ERA+ and has thrown at least five innings in 16 of his past 17 starts. Being proactive in protecting him is imperative, whether that is giving him an extra day of rest or truncating his starts if game situations allow it.<\/p>\n
Wednesday\u2019s pitching plan was a product of the calendar<\/p>\n
Houston has an off day Thursday and another one Monday, which allowed manager Joe Espada the freedom to run a true bullpen game against the Giants.<\/p>\n
That he did so demonstrates the state of Houston\u2019s struggling starting rotation \u2014 and why failing to reinforce it at the deadline may be a fatal flaw. Two supposed members of the rotation were available out of the bullpen in long relief, though only Tatsuya Imai entered the game.<\/p>\n
Imai, an $18 million player who had not pitched in nine days, could only contribute 55 pitches across three scoreless but suspect innings. The Astros deployed Bryan King as an opener in front of him, too, in hopes of solving some of Imai\u2019s season-long woes.<\/p>\n
Instead, Imai threw just 34 of his 55 pitches for strikes, walked two batters and surrendered three hits. He did not allow a run, which is most important, but little else about the outing seemed encouraging.<\/p>\n
It is, perhaps, why Espada gave him such an early hook and may be instructive for how he\u2019ll manage the pitching staff. Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller have a well-performing bullpen and three starters who have shown little ability to offer length or effectiveness.<\/p>\n
Designing pitching plans to blend the two may be Houston\u2019s most effective path forward, especially on days Imai, Ronel Blanco or Cristian Javier are scheduled to pitch. Rarely, however, will the calendar offer an ideal way to do it.<\/p>\n
The Astros\u2019 bullpen doesn\u2019t get enough credit<\/p>\n
Maybe it is due to Josh Hader\u2019s early-season absence and sudden injury history. Maybe Bryan Abreu\u2019s awful April is still seared into some memories. Maybe being nervous about a bullpen is just part of being a baseball fan. Still, Houston\u2019s relievers should not be making any of its fans apprehensive.<\/p>\n
Alvarez\u2019s absurd season has overshadowed what this trip accentuated: The Astros\u2019 bullpen is their biggest strength. Since May 1, it has a 2.86 ERA. Only the Boston Red Sox have a better-performing bullpen.<\/p>\n
Hader made his season debut on June 3. Since then, Astros relievers have a 2.67 ERA and boast the second-highest strikeout rate in the sport. Hader has allowed three earned runs in his first 28 innings, while Abreu has a 1.87 ERA since May 3.<\/p>\n
Those two remain the obvious standouts, but AJ Blubaugh\u2019s continued emergence as a durable, multi-inning weapon and Steven Okert\u2019s steadiness can\u2019t be ignored.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s clear how the Astros view Javier and Blanco<\/p>\n
Skipping Javier\u2019s turn in the rotation for Houston\u2019s upcoming series against the Seattle Mariners only makes it more apparent. So did having Blanco available in long relief on Wednesday, though the two upcoming off days may have had more to do with that decision.<\/p>\n
Still, remember that when Javier returned from the injured list, he did so as a reliever, even with a rotation spot open. Javier\u2019s return to the rotation only came after one of Imai\u2019s implosions.<\/p>\n
The Astros had no other choice. They still don\u2019t, unless team officials are comfortable putting prospects Ethan Pecko or Bryce Mayer in the middle of a playoff race.<\/p>\n
In seven combined starts since both came off the injured list, Javier and Blanco have faced just 21 batters for the third time. Blanco has failed to finish five innings in three of his four starts and, on Wednesday, was available out of the bullpen in a long relief role.<\/p>\n
Deploying two starters who aren\u2019t trusted to see a lineup three times is risky. Doing so with a bullpen that is already overworked only compounds the risk.<\/p>\n
Imai\u2019s innings will be fascinating to track<\/p>\n
After his three-frame appearance in Wednesday\u2019s game against the Giants, Imai now sits at 64 2\/3 innings pitched. His contract calls for a $2 million raise in 2027 for reaching each of 80, 90 and 100 innings pitched in 2026.<\/p>\n
If more of Imai\u2019s remaining outings resemble Wednesday\u2019s \u2014 or if he continues to go nine days between appearances \u2014 it is difficult to envision him reaching 100 innings and earning all of his incentives. Even getting to 90 may be a stretch. Imai, who is making $18 million this season, has that same base salary in both 2027 and 2028.<\/p>\n
His deal includes player options for 2027 and 2028. It seems a fait accompli that Imai will opt in for the 2027 season \u2014 his struggles this year will make it almost impossible to find a more lucrative deal on the free-agent market. Presuming Imai does opt in, he will make the same $18 million base salary he earned this season.<\/p>\n
And maybe not much more.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s wonderful Geoff Blum is getting a national television audience<\/p>\n
Houstonians and other Space City Home Network subscribers are already aware of Blum\u2019s ability as a color analyst, but three August cameos on Sunday Night Baseball should start to showcase it across the sport.<\/p>\n
Blum blends humor and honesty with meticulous preparation to explain baseball\u2019s intricacies in an easily digestible dialogue. It is not always easy for a team broadcaster to be blunt or honest \u2014 especially while working in an organization that listens to every word \u2014 but Blum does so without disparaging anyone and with data to back up his analysis.<\/p>\n
NBC\u2019s audience heard it last Sunday against the Padres and should prepare for it again this Sunday when Blum joins Jason Benetti and Ryan Rowland-Smith for Sunday Night Baseball from Daikin Park.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It is August, and any team will accept handouts, so the Houston Astros took what the San Francisco…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":405418,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[56,5513,58,57],"class_list":["post-405417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-houston","tag-houston","tag-houston-astros","tag-houston-headlines","tag-houston-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=405417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/405418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=405417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=405417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=405417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}