{"id":407366,"date":"2026-08-15T13:49:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T13:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/407366\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T13:49:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T13:49:05","slug":"how-el-pasos-population-changes-will-shape-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/407366\/","title":{"rendered":"How El Paso’s population changes will shape the future"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Paso\u2019s population is getting older, growing more slowly and losing many of its younger residents \u2013 demographic shifts that could reshape the region\u2019s workforce, schools and housing market, but could guide the way the Borderland prepares for the future.<\/p>\n

That was the message Friday from experts in education, the workforce, housing and affordability during the first El Paso Forward summit at the El Paso Community College Administrative Services Center, 9050 Viscount Blvd.<\/p>\n

About 250 people attended the half-day summit hosted by El Paso Matters, which has been leading data-driven conversations in population trends<\/a> in the region and providing in-depth reporting<\/a> on the impacts of those demographic changes.<\/p>\n

El Paso Matters CEO Robert Moore opened the summit with a presentation on El Paso\u2019s population trends. Tracy Ayrhart, vice president of data and research for Texas 2036<\/a>, spoke on statewide trends.<\/p>\n

LEARN MORE: El Paso is aging twice as fast as the nation. Here\u2019s how it will reshape our community.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"El Paso Matters CEO Robert Moore speaks on EL Paso\u2019s population trends during the El Paso Forward event, Aug. 14, 2026. (Corrie Boudreaux\/El Paso Matters)<\/p>\n

\u201cTrends show us where we\u2019ve been,\u201d Moore said. \u201cThey can give some hint of where we\u2019re going, but they are not prescriptive of our future because we all have agency to change things and to transform the direction where we\u2019re going.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aryhart said El Paso\u2019s aging population reflects a broader trend expected to reshape Texas. By 2060, projections show Texas will become a \u201csuper-aged\u201d state, with more than 21% of residents 65 or older.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"Tracy Ayrhart of Texas 2036 speaks on Texas population trends during the El Paso Forward event, Aug. 14, 2026. (Corrie Boudreaux\/El Paso Matters)<\/p>\n

That shift \u2013 which includes El Paso County \u2013 could affect everything from school enrollment and the workforce to health care and infrastructure, she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to know what\u2019s going on to know how to respond,\u201d Aryhart said.<\/p>\n

Impacts on education<\/p>\n

El Paso County schools, traditional public districts as well as charters, 10 years ago enrolled more than 177,000 students. Last year, that figure was at 160,000 \u2013 a decrease of nearly 10%.<\/p>\n

James P. Vasquez, superintendent of the Socorro Independent School District, pointed out that for years, SISD had seen enrollment increases that it struggled to keep up with. But the district started seeing an enrollment decline in the 2023-2024 school year, which impacted the district\u2019s revenues and resulted in layoffs.<\/p>\n

\"\"El Paso Matters Editor Cindy Ramirez introduces the education panel during the El Paso Forward event, Aug. 14, 2026. (Corrie Boudreaux\/El Paso Matters)<\/p>\n

\u201cWe had to put a reduction in force two years ago and, you know, unfortunately, it wasn\u2019t the numbers that we had anticipated. It was 23 employees that were impacted by that, but that\u2019s 23 too many,\u201d Vasquez said.<\/p>\n

EL PASO FORWARD: Explore our reporting on population, demographic trends shaping the Borderland<\/a><\/p>\n

The trend in enrollment loss is not expected to change as declining birth rates continue. Coupled with the loss of funding to voucher programs, area school district leaders are considering additional teaching cuts.<\/p>\n

The Ysleta and Socorro school districts are also looking to tax ratification propositions <\/a>that, if approved, would bring in millions more in tax revenue with little to no impact on most homeowners. Vasquez acknowledged that\u2019s a tough ask of voters who are facing rising cost of living and potential tax increases from other local governments.<\/p>\n

Rural school districts<\/a> are also facing declining enrollment and are having to reduce their budgets, lay off teachers and consolidate schools. The Tornillo Independent School District cut four teaching jobs, and plans to move all its seventh- and eighth-graders to the district\u2019s high school. It will also turn its former middle school into a pre-kindergarten through sixth-grade campus.<\/p>\n

RELATED: Hundreds of El Paso teachers leave classrooms as enrollment decline reshapes area schools, workforce<\/a><\/p>\n

Brenda Carrillo, an Algebra I teacher at Tornillo High School, said while enrollment is declining, classroom sizes are growing and straining teachers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThat is very concerning because as an educator, how can we teach effectively? How can we address every student and give them the individual attention that they deserve? As an educator, we want our students to feel seen, supported, engaged, and safe. So our only concern is that we don\u2019t lose educators in the process,\u201d Carrillo said.<\/p>\n

About 820 teachers from the El Paso, Socorro and Ysleta school districts \u2013 nearly 10% of all teachers in the districts \u2013 either retired, resigned or were terminated<\/a> during the last fiscal year, which ended in June. That same year, the districts only hired a combined 470 teachers \u2013 260 at EPISD, 160 at SISD and the remainder at YISD.<\/p>\n

Future workforce pipeline<\/p>\n

As school districts grapple with declining enrollment and a reduction of the workforce, other job opportunities that provide living wages need to be created for the region to have a successful future, experts said.<\/p>\n

While El Paso has a lower cost of living than many of the places residents move to, those communities generally offer much higher wages. As a result, families often have an easier time achieving a middle-class standard of living elsewhere, Moore said in his opening presentation.<\/p>\n

\"\"Ahsan Choudhuri, co-founder and CEO of ARC Aerospace and Defense Systems, listens during the El Paso Forward event, Aug. 14, 2026. (Corrie Boudreaux\/El Paso Matters)<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we have issue with paychecks and opportunity,\u201d said Ahsan Choudhuri, co-founder and CEO of ARC Aerospace and Defense Systems. \u201cIf you don\u2019t have a paycheck, you cannot ask people to stay. If you don\u2019t have an opportunity, you cannot train people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Choudhuri said companies<\/a> that need skilled workers won\u2019t come to El Paso if the talent is not here.<\/p>\n

READ MORE: Where El Pasoans are moving, and what those destinations offer<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cWe need talent, and if we fail to produce talent, then we have no chance,\u201d Choudhuri said.<\/p>\n

Skilled workers also struggle to stay in El Paso if the right jobs are not here.<\/p>\n

\"\"Ricardo Rivero speaks about his journey back to El Paso after having gone to work in Midland at the El Paso Forward forum, Aug. 14, 2026. (Corrie Boudreaux\/El Paso Matters)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe goal is to always establish roots where you call home,\u201d said Ricardo Rivero, a communications technician<\/a> at El Paso Electric and a member of IBEW Local 960.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rivero left El Paso for Midland after graduating from El Dorado High School in 2016. He said many of his co-workers in Midland asked him why he came from a larger city to work in a smaller market, adding that El Paso is the \u201cgoal\u201d city to move to by others in smaller towns.<\/p>\n

He started his career in Midland when he could not find work in his hometown of El Paso, before returning here nearly a year ago. He had to leave El Paso, he said, to get the training and experience he needed to land a job here.<\/p>\n

Leila Melendez, CEO of Workforce Solutions Borderplex, said the region has done well for economic development, but is lacking in human development efforts.<\/p>\n

\u201cI appreciate all of our efforts. I just don\u2019t know that we are aligned behind a common goal,\u201d Melendez said.<\/p>\n

She said the region needs to work toward creating an economic development strategy around people\u2019s skills and occupations, rather than being focused primarily on a particular industry.<\/p>\n

That would shift the focus to creating skills clusters that can serve multiple industries.<\/p>\n

\u201cI believe that our strategy needs to be at a human occupation centric level. Human capital is a driver of productivity, technology, and so is capital. But I would love for us to focus on the humans, so that they can use technology to then run the capital, versus the opposite today,\u201d Melendez said.<\/p>\n

Affordability, meeting housing needs<\/p>\n

El Paso\u2019s housing needs and household compositions are also shifting.<\/p>\n

K.C. Griffin, CEO and Partner of Integrity Asset Management, an El Paso-based apartment management company, said the region needs to meet housing demands while preserving the existing housing stock.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think in the private sector, what we\u2019re finding is a shift in what we\u2019re building and what historically the older product that\u2019s already in El Paso caters to, is very different from what we need for the future,\u201d Griffin said. \u201cWe do have a senior population that\u2019s changing dramatically.\u201d<\/p>\n

Griffin said the private sector needs to focus on multi-generational housing such as townhomes and homes with casitas, increasing the supply pipeline, and taking care of the existing housing.<\/p>\n

Podcast: Why El Paso\u2019s population decline could become an economic challenge<\/a><\/p>\n

El Paso needs to move away-from a longstanding focus on single-family homes, said Shelly Rivas, legal counsel for the El Paso Housing Opportunity Management Enterprises, or HOME.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are way behind in building multifamily housing,\u201d Rivas said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rivas referred to the situation as the \u201cEl Paso paradox\u201d where affordable housing is being \u201csqueezed out\u201d by higher income renters because of the change in makeup of households. Part of that change is that more people with higher incomes are choosing to rent as buying a home has become less affordable.<\/p>\n

\u201cFive years ago, the average household was three persons \u2013 that number has declined, and what it does, it adds approximately 2,000 new households into El Paso. So while the population might be declining, the need for multifamily housing is increasing,\u201d Rivas said.<\/p>\n

Cindy Conroy, the first El Pasoan in decades to serve on the board of the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs, said creating public-private partnerships to obtain tax credits to rehabilitate properties into affordable housing is one way to address housing shortages.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think really the utilization of public-private partnerships is what will really \u2013 across the board, in everything that we do \u2013 enhance this community,\u201d Conroy said.<\/p>\n

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