WASHINGTON \u2014 With less than nine weeks to go until early voting begins in Texas\u2019 U.S. Senate race, both Ken Paxton and James Talarico have been campaigning around the state, meeting voters everywhere from restaurants to music halls as they\u2019ve pitched their political visions.<\/p>\n
But on television, Texans have only seen one of them.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Talarico, an Austin state representative, has spent more than $25 million on advertising since the general election began in late May, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact \u2014 with nearly $10.7 million deployed on broadcast and an additional $8.4 million on streaming devices. (The rest has gone to a combination of cable, digital, radio and satellite.)<\/p>\n
Texans turning on their TVs this summer have seen Talarico talk about the importance of loving God and neighbor in a spot featuring his grandfather. They\u2019ve seen the Democrat lamenting high costs in a grocery store and while driving a truck, and heard about his record in a World Cup-themed Spanish language ad.<\/p>\n
Over that same time period, the Paxton campaign has spent $119,000 \u2014 nearly all of it on digital advertising \u2014 meaning that Talarico has essentially had the airwaves to himself. Over that time, he has built a narrow polling lead, pulling ahead in numerous surveys within the margin of error.<\/p>\n
In television interviews, Paxton has noted this disparity and appealed to donors for help. On Fox News recently, the Republican nominee laid out his timeline for campaign spending, saying he expects that litigating Talarico\u2019s record will cement the Democrat\u2019s loss \u2014 but that he needs resources to do it.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs we\u2019re raising money, we\u2019re working our way back into October, which is where we can spend money, and we\u2019re trying to work our way back to September,\u201d Paxton said. \u201cBut we need help now, because James Talarico\u2019s been spending $3 [million] or $4 million a week on TV for the last month. So, I want to compete.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Paxton campaign has also touted that while he was outraised by Talarico in the second quarter, Paxton still raised more money \u2014 more than $9 million \u2014 than any non-incumbent GOP Senate candidate in the country. And Paxton has noted that the expensive primary runoff left his coffers more depleted than those of Talarico, who could afford to spend the spring stockpiling his war chest after winning his March primary.<\/p>\n
Conventional election wisdom states that most voters don\u2019t start paying attention until after Labor Day, and that Republicans can still win while being outspent on ads \u2014 which Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, did in both his narrow victory in 2018 and comfortable win in 2024. Republican strategists expect the cavalry to come for Paxton, with well-heeled outside players helping narrow the spending gap.<\/p>\n
But as September approaches, they\u2019re eyeing the calendar.<\/p>\n
\u201cI do think Paxton needs to define Talarico, and he needs to do it soon,\u201d John Wittman, an unaffiliated Republican consultant and former adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott, said in an interview. \u201cWe\u2019re about three months out from Election Day. So it’s important for Republicans to combat this Democrat aggression, that they do start to spend and start to define Talarico for the crazy liberal he is.\u201d<\/p>\n
Republican strategists caution that Democrats\u2019 polling is typically strongest in the summer and that they expect those numbers to shift once Paxton or his allies begin attacking Talarico on television. A Republican group called Protecting America\u2019s Future, seeded by longtime Paxton ally and West Texas billionaire Tim Dunn, became the first GOP group to run an anti-Talarico ad, attacking him in two spots on China policy and crime in a $120,000 ad spend airing mostly in the Corpus Christi media market this week.<\/p>\n
By comparison, Talarico\u2019s campaign has spent more than $7.3 million on ads over the past couple of weeks, over 36 times the amount dropped by Republicans.<\/p>\n
In 2024, when Cruz beat Democrat Colin Allred by an 8.5-point margin, he was also outspent over the summer \u2014 though Cruz was spending more on a week-by-week basis than Paxton is now. Cruz started spending six figures a week on advertising in late July 2024, according to AdImpact data, and ramped up to a weekly seven-figure expenditure by late September. When combined with outside spending, Republicans were dropping at least $2 million on ads each week by the end of August two years ago.<\/p>\n
Paxton, by contrast, has spent no more than $20,000 on ads in any week of the general election thus far. AdImpact has tracked over $72,000 in Republican spending this week, the party\u2019s high-water mark since the runoff.<\/p>\n
In total, Democrats outspent Republicans by a margin of $119.7 million to $82.6 million in Texas\u2019 2024 Senate race after the primaries. Cruz\u2019s campaign was aided by tens of millions in outside ad support and coordinated spending, the bulk of which did not come until late September.<\/p>\n
And Cruz, of course, was an incumbent senator who had six years to build his war chest, while this is Paxton\u2019s first federal race.<\/p>\n
Beyond Paxton\u2019s campaign itself, well-heeled groups, including Senate Leadership Fund, the national PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, and MAGA Inc., the massive campaign super PAC aligned with Trump, could even the field in Texas \u2014 though both groups are operating with a national map bigger than Texas. The question animating Republicans in Texas remains: When will the money come?<\/p>\n
Paxton has acknowledged that Talarico\u2019s superior spending has affected the standing of the race. Polls have put the race essentially tied, with Talarico narrowly leading in recent polls that put him within the margin of error \u2014 an unprecedented situation for the top-of-the-ticket race in Texas since Republicans solidified control of the state.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s got money,\u201d Paxton told GOP radio host Dana Loesch. \u201cHe\u2019s been on TV for about four or five weeks. And it\u2019s helped him a little bit in the polls \u2014 that\u2019s why the polls have gotten closer.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the current lack of future ad reservations \u2014 from Paxton or allies \u2014 has some Republicans offering warnings to the outside groups that have yet to spend money. After the Paxton interview, Loesch, whose show is broadcast from Dallas, told her listeners that Republican groups were \u201cleaving you to hang\u201d and questioned, \u201cWhere\u2019s the GOP in this race?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a winnable race,\u201d Loesch said. \u201cAll these big-money GOP donors need to get off their asses and make a decision. Because I guaran-damn-tee you, if their inaction results in us having somebody like James Talarico, dear God in heaven, my rage will be limitless.\u201d<\/p>\n
Karl Rove, a longtime Republican strategist who supported Sen. John Cornyn in the primary against Paxton, put it even more starkly. Rove said Texas is a Republican state but that the disparate fundraising dynamics have made the race unusual.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s not going to change as a fundraiser,\u201d Rove said on Fox, referring to Paxton\u2019s past performances. \u201cSo this is going to be one that is going to depend mightily upon the decision of President Trump to spend or not spend the half a billion plus dollars that he has in his two super PACs \u2014 MAGA Inc. and Never Surrender. If he does spend, then he can sort of even it up. If he doesn\u2019t spend, this could be a really bad night for Republicans in Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n
Texas Bullpen reported that MAGA Inc. fielded a message testing poll in Texas with possible attacks against Talarico this month, portending potential future spending.<\/p>\n
In the Fox News interview, Paxton said Republican leadership is \u201cplanning on spending money here, is my understanding,\u201d but he noted that he can\u2019t coordinate with them.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe haven\u2019t yet, but we\u2019re very hopeful that that\u2019s coming soon,\u201d Paxton told Loesch when she asked if he was getting adequate funding from GOP groups. \u201cWe\u2019ve been told September.\u201d<\/p>\n
Across the Republican spending landscape, Texas stands out for the lack of future TV ad reservations. GOP candidates and their allies have booked at least $10 million from Sept. 1 onward in eight battleground states, according to AdImpact. In the five other competitive states where Republicans are playing defense \u2014 Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio \u2014 the GOP has outspent Democrats in its fall bookings.<\/p>\n
Democrats have not booked any ad reservations in Texas past Sept. 1 either. That includes Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, which has bought ad time in other battleground states.<\/p>\n
A few factors could explain why both parties are waiting to get involved in Texas.<\/p>\n
In smaller states with fewer media markets, ad rates can rise quickly, especially when there are competitive governor and House races also competing for airtime. In those cases, early reservations can be critical. Meanwhile, Texas has 20 different media markets, placing less pressure on outside groups to commit money early and lock in rates, one national GOP strategist told the Tribune. That\u2019s why campaigns and groups often buy ad time on a week-to-week basis here.<\/p>\n
Super PACs can also make a difference. But on that front, Democrats also had an advantage at last count.<\/p>\n
Lone Star Liberty PAC, the pro-Paxton super PAC that dropped $5.7 million throughout the primary, has yet to spend any money on television since the runoff. That\u2019s expected to change at some point, but the group went into July with major reloading to do after an expensive second quarter taken up by the primary runoff. The PAC only had $35,000 in its war chest at the end of June, according to federal records.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports Talarico, had nearly $12.7 million on hand.<\/p>\n
Outside of the Senate race, Republicans\u2019 cash advantage in other statewide contests \u2014 especially the governor\u2019s race \u2014 could serve to benefit Paxton as well, when an expected deluge of pro-Republican, anti-Democrat messaging hits the airwaves this fall.<\/p>\n
The next round of federal campaign fundraising data will not be available until mid-October, just before early voting begins.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON \u2014 With less than nine weeks to go until early voting begins in Texas\u2019 U.S. Senate race,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":412406,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[223,8510,27,29,28],"class_list":["post-412405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-news","tag-state","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=412405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/412406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=412405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=412405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=412405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}