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A cold and wet winter could await Houston thanks to the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Houston Chronicle\/Hearst Newspap\/Houston Chronicle via Getty Imag<\/p>\n
The big question for Texas this winter isn’t just whether El Ni\u00f1o <\/a>will bring more rain. It’s whether all that moisture could finally turn into snow.<\/p>\n After a hot, dry summer,<\/a> Texans could be in for a dramatic weather reversal as a powerful El Ni\u00f1o takes over the winter pattern.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The catch? Texas may get plenty of the wet stuff this winter. Snow is another story.<\/p>\n John Nielsen-Gammon, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University, told Chron he puts the odds of Texas having a wetter-than-normal cool season at about 90 percent from October through April.<\/p>\n And he’s more confident than NOAA.<\/p>\n “I’m a bit more confident than NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center,” Nielsen-Gammon said, noting that NOAA is accounting for a recent drying trend in Texas that he believes was largely driven by previous La Ni\u00f1a conditions.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n This time around, he expects El Ni\u00f1o to take the wheel.<\/p>\n Get ready for a wetter Texas<\/p>\n By October, Houston’s weather will increasingly be influenced by the jet stream, Nielsen-Gammon said. El Ni\u00f1o’s unusually warm tropical waters should help make that jet stream stronger and push it farther south than usual.<\/p>\n For Houston, that could mean more frequent storm systems\u2014including more storms forming over the Gulf of Mexico and bringing the city its favorite winter combination: clouds and steady rain.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n There’s even a 10 to 15 percent chance Houston breaks its October-through-April rainfall record, according to Nielsen-Gammon.<\/p>\n That’s not an insignificant possibility when you consider what’s happened during past strong El Ni\u00f1os.<\/p>\n Houston’s two wettest cool seasons in the past 50 years both occurred during very strong El Ni\u00f1os. The city recorded 43.81 inches in 2015-16 and 40.65 inches in 1991-92.<\/p>\n The all-time record of 44.82 inches, set in 1949-50, could even be within reach this winter, Nielsen-Gammon said.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n For Houstonians who remember the Tax Day flood of 2016, the prospect of another exceptionally wet El Ni\u00f1o winter may not sound quite so fun.<\/p>\n But will Texas actually see snow?<\/p>\n Maybe\u2014but El Ni\u00f1o isn’t necessarily Houston’s ticket to a snow day.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o generally favors cooler weather across Texas, but Nielsen-Gammon puts the odds of a cooler-than-normal October-through-April period at only about 50-50. Two competing forces are at work: El Ni\u00f1o pushes temperatures cooler, while global warming pushes them warmer.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n And when it comes to snow, there’s an even bigger problem.<\/p>\n Texas needs cold air. Lots of it.<\/p>\n During past very strong El Ni\u00f1os, Central and South Texas did not see an increase in snow or freezing rain.<\/p>\n “To get significant snow this far south requires a strong, sustained blast of cold air from the Arctic, but Arctic temperatures tend to be much warmer than normal during an El Ni\u00f1o,” Nielsen-Gammon said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n That’s particularly bad news for Houstonians hoping to wake up to a winter wonderland.<\/p>\n “The cold weather in Houston during an El Ni\u00f1o tends to be more of the cloudy and dreary kind rather than the bitingly cold kind,” he said.<\/p>\n Stay informed, and entertained.<\/p>\n By signing up, you agree to our Terms Of Use<\/a> and acknowledge that your information will be used as described in our Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n This year’s El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o has a chance to be one of the strongest in recorded history, in which the combination of warm ocean temperatures and vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean has brought just two named storms (Tropical Storm Arthur<\/a>\u00a0and Tropical Storm Bertha<\/a>) to the United States.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports<\/a> the El Ni\u00f1o pattern brings more moisture to the southern portion of the United States, highlighting Amarillo and West Texas as an area that should bring “wetter, snowier conditions,” as well as “cooler maximum temperatures.” Farmer’s Almanac<\/a> reported a similar forecast this month, in which “more storms and wetter and cooler weather” are expected in the South.\u00a0<\/p>\n Texans could face a harsher winter than usual thanks to the El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern.\u00a0<\/p>\n Houston Chronicle\/Hearst Newspap\/Houston Chronicle via Getty Imag<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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