but not all<\/a>. The figures depend on which data set is used and whether crimes are counted as raw totals or adjusted for Austin\u2019s population growth. The available data show that Austin\u2019s homicide rate rose substantially between 2015 and 2025, while aggravated-assault and rape rates increased by smaller amounts. But one of Simmons\u2019 specific claims \u2014 that rape increased 65% \u2014 is not supported by the data reviewed by the American-Statesman.<\/p>\nThe news release cited crime data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association and said the U.S. attorney\u2019s office had worked with the Austin Police Department, the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Travis County District Attorney\u2019s Office to prepare the cases.<\/p>\n
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Michael Lahrman, a public affairs officer for the U.S. Attorney\u2019s Office, said the association\u2019s data was used because it was the most current public reporting. He referred questions about the data to the association, but a representative for the group did not respond to the Statesman\u2019s inquiries<\/p>\n
Lahrman also said the number of cases federal prosecutors had filed against Austin-area defendants year-over-year was not readily available, so it is unclear how much of an increase the 40 cases represents compared to prior years. Lahrman noted that the 40 cases were filed in just a two to three month period.<\/p>\n
That means the federal prosecution figure cannot, based on the information available, be used to establish a year-over-year increase. It does show that federal prosecutors have filed dozens of gun-related cases recently, but the U.S. Attorney\u2019s Office did not provide a historical comparison.<\/p>\n
What the crime data shows<\/p>\n
Data in the Major Cities Chiefs Association\u2019s reports, released quarterly, support Simmons\u2019 homicide and aggravated assault figures when comparing raw counts of those crimes from 2015 to 2025. Homicides increased from 23 to 66, while aggravated assaults increased from 1,919 to 2,636.<\/p>\n
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But the association\u2019s data shows Austin rape cases declining from 753 in 2015 to 684 in 2025 \u2014 a 9% decrease, not a 65% increase.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
FBI agents arrive at the site of a shooting at Buford’s on west 6th street in Downtown Austin, Texas on Sunday, March 1, 2026.<\/p>\n
Aaron E. Martinez\/Austin American-Statesman<\/p>\n
The discrepancy appears to stem, at least in part, from the use of different data sources or categories. A Statesman analysis of data pulled directly from the Federal Bureau of Investigation\u2019s Crime Data Explorer, which is updated monthly, produced different raw-count changes over the same period: Homicides increased 122%, rape offenses increased 53% and aggravated assaults increased 28%.<\/p>\n
But neither set of raw counts accounts for Austin\u2019s population growth.<\/p>\n
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The city grew from about 905,738 residents in 2015 to about 1,002,632 in 2025, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.<\/p>\n
Crime rates measure offenses per 100,000 residents and generally offer a better comparison of crime trends over time because they account for population change. A growing city can record more crimes without the typical resident facing a larger public safety risk, because the city has more people living in it.<\/p>\n
Using FBI crime data and Census population estimates, the Statesman calculated that Austin\u2019s homicide rate grew from 2.5 per 100,000 residents in 2015 to 5.1 per 100,000 residents in 2025. Over the same period, the rate of aggravated assaults grew from 227 to 262 per 100,000 residents while the rate of rapes grew from 54 to 74 per 100,000 residents.<\/p>\n
On a population-adjusted basis, the data show increases in all three categories, but those increases are smaller than the raw-count figures cited in Simmons\u2019 announcement:<\/p>\n
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The homicide rate increased about 104%, compared with the 187% increase in the Major Cities Chiefs Association\u2019s raw counts.
\nThe aggravated-assault rate increased about 15%, compared with the association\u2019s 38% figure.
\nThe rape rate increased about 37%, compared with Simmons\u2019 65% figure.<\/p>\n
The FBI data and the Census estimates also do not independently support the exact figures Simmons cited. The available data does, however, support the broader conclusion that Austin\u2019s homicide rate was higher in 2025 than in 2015.When asked about the data, Travis County District Attorney Jos\u00e9 Garza said more recent data provide a better picture of how crime trends have shifted in Austin.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
Travis County District Attorney Jose Garza speaks at a news conference at Austin City Hall about the 1991 I Can\u2019t Believe It\u2019s Yogurt murder investigation on Monday, Sept. 29, 2025.<\/p>\n
Jay Janner\/Austin American-Statesman<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen it comes to crime trends, it\u2019s been documented and substantiated that crime began to rise in 2020, spiked in 2021 and has been declining since then,\u201d Garza said.<\/p>\n
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The data show a more mixed pattern, however. Homicide rates rose sharply in 2020 and peaked in 2021, but increased slightly in 2023 and 2024 before declining in 2025. Aggravated-assault rates continued rising through 2022 before declining for three consecutive years. Rape rates, however, increased in 2024 and 2025 after a brief decline in 2023.<\/p>\n
Specifically, from 2020 to 2025, the data showed:<\/p>\n
Homicides increased from 45 in 2020 to 51 in 2025, a 13% increase. The homicide rate rose 9%.
\nAggravated assaults fell from 3,130 to 2,631, a 16% decrease. The aggravated-assault rate also fell 16%.
\nRapes increased from 638 to 743, a 16% increase. The rape rate rose 12%.<\/p>\n
So while several categories of violent crime have fallen from their pandemic-era peaks, Austin\u2019s 2025 rates were not uniformly lower than they were in 2015. The longer-term trend depends on the offense and the period being compared.<\/p>\n
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What the federal cases show<\/p>\n
Simmons, an appointee of former U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, \u00a0said the 40 cases his prosecutors have filed in recent months represented an effort to target people he called \u201cthe worst of the worst.\u201d<\/p>\n
Garza said the defendants already faced state charges when the U.S. attorney\u2019s Office approached his office several months ago about cases that might be appropriate for federal prosecution, particularly firearm cases.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The cases include 26 charges against convicted felons accused of possessing firearms, three charges against immigrants accused of illegally possessing firearms and cases involving drug trafficking, carjacking, possession of an illegal machine gun and operating an unlicensed firearms business.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) use an explosive detection K-9 to search for gun power residue after 13 people were injured during a shooting early Saturday morning on 6th Street.<\/p>\n
Ana Ramirez<\/p>\n
Eleven defendants have pleaded guilty, Lahrman said, and two were sentenced to federal prison.<\/p>\n
Simmons highlighted the case of Joshua Dixon, who was arrested by a state trooper in May after a vehicle pursuit. According to his arrest warrant, Dixon was facing state charges for money laundering, a third-degree felony. Investigators found 11 firearms, more than 3,000 grams of methamphetamine and roughly $50,000 in cash in Dixon\u2019s vehicle upon his arrest.<\/p>\n
In another case, Austin police officers arrested Kamron Smith Overton for the unlawful possession of a firearm by a felon, a third-degree felony. In Overton\u2019s arrest warrant, investigators said they found a pistol equipped with a \u201cmachine-gun conversion device\u201d in the suspect\u2019s bedroom. The warrant also says the gun produced a presumptive ballistic match to bullet casings recovered after a drive-by shooting at a child\u2019s birthday party in which two people were shot.<\/p>\n
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Police Department spokesperson Anna Sabana said Austin officers worked with the ATF through the department\u2019s Crime Gun Intelligence Unit to help assemble the cases. The Police Department serves as the host agency for the ATF\u2019s regional National Integrated Ballistic Information Network program, Sabana said, and two Austin detectives work full time as deputized ATF task force officers.<\/p>\n
Sabana said the specific initiative announced Tuesday is ending, but the department will continue working with federal law enforcement officials.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Police investigate a homicide in the 1500 block of Royal Crest Drive in Austin, Thursday, April 23, 2026.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":421338,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[132,134,133],"class_list":["post-421337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-austin","tag-austin","tag-austin-headlines","tag-austin-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=421337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421337\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/421338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=421337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=421337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=421337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}