{"id":421643,"date":"2026-08-31T07:30:31","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T07:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/421643\/"},"modified":"2026-08-31T07:30:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T07:30:31","slug":"can-democrats-overcome-texas-gerrymander","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/421643\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Democrats overcome Texas\u2019 gerrymander?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Survey Says<\/a> is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that\u2019s driving politics or culture.<\/p>\n

Last year, Texas Republicans fired the first shot<\/a> in the Great Mid-Decade Gerrymandering War, further rigging their state\u2019s map in an effort to flip up to five<\/a> House seats held by Democrats and aid the GOP\u2019s attempts to retain its majority in the chamber.<\/p>\n

So how\u2019s that working out? If new polling is to be believed, not so well.<\/p>\n

A new poll<\/a>, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, finds Democratic nominees leading in three heavily gerrymandered districts. Two are held by Democratic representatives whom the GOP seeks to oust with the new map.<\/p>\n

\"DemocraticBobby Pulido, the Democratic nominee in Texas\u2019 15th District, shown in February.AP<\/p>\n

The most surprising result comes in Texas\u2019 15th District, where Democrat Bobby Pulido<\/a> leads Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, 50% to 45%. That 5-percentage-point margin in a competitive contest would not be shocking on its face\u2014it puts a Republican victory within the margin of error, in fact\u2014but Republicans drew the lines here to be not at all competitive. In 2024, voters in the new district backed President Donald Trump 18 points, according to data<\/a> from The Downballot.<\/p>\n

If Pulido, a superstar in the world of Tejano music, were to win the district by 5 points, it would represent a jaw-dropping 23-point swing in Democrats\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n

Similar trends pop up in the poll\u2019s two Democrat-held House districts. In Texas\u2019 28th District, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar<\/a> leads Republican Tano Tijerina, 45% to 34%, in a district that went for Trump by 10 points in 2024. And in Texas\u2019 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez<\/a> leads Republican Eric Flores, 45% to 42%, in a district that backed Trump by just over 10 points.<\/p>\n

There are caveats here, of course.<\/p>\n

We shouldn\u2019t take too much away from any single survey. Even high-quality polls can be wrong sometimes. That said, the Texas Southern University poll represents the first nonpartisan look at these races since May 26, when Texas had runoff elections and its slate of candidates was finalized. Since then, the only other surveys for these races have been sponsored by partisan sources, including a pro-Democratic PAC<\/a> and two<\/a> Republican candidates<\/a>.<\/p>\n

If we include all polls conducted since May 26, the races tighten up. But even then, the Democratic nominees are outperforming the 2024 presidential margins in all three districts, suggesting that Lone Star State Republicans\u2019 new map isn\u2019t as solid as they expected it to be.<\/p>\n

Another thing to keep in mind about the poll is that none of the Democratic nominees have an outright majority (i.e., 51%). Given the districts\u2019 Republican leanings on paper, undecided voters may skew to the right.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the same time, the Texas gerrymander is heavily based on the myopic belief<\/a> that Republican gains among Latino voters are solid, if not improving further. This belief stems from Trump\u2019s consistent improvement with Latino voters. In the 2016 presidential election, he lost these voters by 38 points, according to the Pew Research Center<\/a>. He closed the gap a little in 2020, losing the group by 25 points, then closed it almost entirely in 2024, losing them by just 3 points.<\/p>\n

However, newer data suggests Latinos\u2019 recent support for the GOP is far from solid.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In an average of the first three polls YouGov<\/a> conducted in Trump\u2019s second term, his net approval rating among Latino voters was -6 points. But across the three most recent polls, it has fallen to -31 points.<\/p>\n

Latinos have turned on him more than the broader American public, too. Between the first three surveys of Trump\u2019s second term and the three most recent ones, his average net approval rating has fallen 20 points among all registered voters, but among Latino voters, it\u2019s dropped 25 points.<\/p>\n

Other data shows even more of a dropoff. A Pew study<\/a> released in May found that a large number of Latino Trump voters are souring on him. Ninety-three percent of them approved of the job he was doing as president in February 2025, but that is down to just 66% as of April.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And a July survey<\/a> from Pew found that 49% Hispanic voters would back the Democratic candidates in their district if the midterm elections were held today. Only 26% would back the Republican candidate. (The remainder are not sure or would back another candidate.) That 23-point margin in favor of Democrats is considerably better than the 13-point lead the party held among Hispanic voters in the final YouGov\/Economist poll<\/a> ahead of the 2024 election.<\/p>\n

In Texas, Republicans made a bet\u2014and a gerrymander\u2014based on the idea that their gains with Latino voters were solid. But this new poll suggests that bet may not pay off.<\/p>\n

Any updates?<\/p>\n

After a shock victory<\/a> in Wisconsin\u2019s Democratic primary for governor, David Crowley is leading in the general election, per a new poll<\/a> from the esteemed Marquette University Law School. Forty-nine percent of registered voters back Crowley, while 44% support Republican nominee Tom Tiffany. That doesn\u2019t get the Democrat out of the woods yet\u2014for one thing, he\u2019s still under 50% support\u2014but it\u2019s promising.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s tariff-based attack on Canada is facing steep repercussions abroad<\/a>\u2014and at home. A new YouGov poll<\/a> finds that just 27% of Americans approve of Trump\u2019s 50% tariff on various goods from the Great White North. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of Americans (62%) oppose them, including 1 in 4 Republicans.<\/p>\n

Trump claims to have a friend<\/a> who is on, in his words, the \u201cfat drug\u201d\u2014aka weight-loss drugs like Ozempic\u2014and new polling finds that having a friend supporting one\u2019s GLP-1 journey is key to people finding the drugs effective. Among those who have used GLP-1 drugs, 71% say they\u2019ve been effective or extremely effective in aiding their weight loss, according to Gallup<\/a>. And GLP-1 users who have someone to support their health are almost twice as likely as those without that support to report that the drugs have been extremely effective for them. Trump may have called this GLP-1-using friend of his a \u201cfat slob,\u201d but he also called the man \u201cbrilliant,\u201d so maybe that counts as support?<\/p>\n

Vibe check<\/p>\n

In general, Democrats\u2019 hopes of winning a Senate majority this year take it as a given that they will defend the New Hampshire seat held by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is retiring. But a new poll from a high-quality nonpartisan firm finds the Democratic front-runner trailing the Republican front-runner in a hypothetical general-election matchup.<\/p>\n

Among likely voters in the Granite State, 43% support Democrat Chris Pappas and 45% back Republican John E. Sununu, according to the latest University of New Hampshire survey<\/a> of the race. It is the first time in five polls, dating back to last September, that Pappas has trailed in this matchup, though recent surveys have seen his support slide.<\/p>\n

Likewise, Pappas\u2019 support in the Democratic primary has been dropping. In January, 65% of likely primary voters backed him, but that\u2019s down to 47% now\u2014a fall that has largely tracked with the rise of progressive Karishma Manzur. In January, her support was at 22%, but now it is 34%, putting her only 13 points behind Pappas, a moderate.<\/p>\n

In the Republican primary, the pollster\u2019s data shows that Sununu, part of a state political dynasty, has shored up his support and is now a clear favorite against his top competitor, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.<\/p>\n

Senate elections in the Granite State are often close, for what it\u2019s worth. Since 1992<\/a>, five of its past 11 Senate elections have been decided by less than 5 points. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":421644,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[30716,10741,20114,146741,1726,146745,27,29,28,146742,146743,146744],"class_list":["post-421643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-gerrymander","tag-house","tag-midterms","tag-midterms2026","tag-series","tag-surveysays","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news","tag-tx-15","tag-tx-28","tag-tx-34"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=421643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/421644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=421643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=421643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=421643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}