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The downtown skyline is seen through windows at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center on Monday, Feb. 5, 2024, in Dallas.<\/p>\n
Smiley N. Pool\/Staff Photographer<\/p>\n
Dallas\u2019 economy appears to be surging, yet another metric is seemingly heading in the wrong direction: Average hourly earnings for Dallas private sector workers have dropped in recent months, according to data\u00a0published this summer<\/a> by the Dallas Fed, even as the Texas and national averages have risen. Wages are also up in Fort Worth.\u00a0<\/p>\n At least for now, the seemingly negative Dallas indicator isn\u2019t actually a cause for concern, \u00a0said Dallas Fed labor economist Pia Orrenius. \u201cSometimes it\u2019s just an artifact of which sectors are growing versus not,\u201d Orrenius told The Dallas Morning News. \u201cI think it\u2019s too soon to say anything ominous.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The local earnings data was sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Texas Workforce figures and was published by the Dallas Fed in late July as part of the regional bank\u2019s latest bimonthly economic indicators report for metro Dallas.<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n On the whole, that report, which included data through June, was overwhelmingly positive, showing that Dallas has continued to add jobs while unemployment has been stable. In June, the Dallas economy added jobs at an annualized rate of 3.7%, up from 1.3% in May. June unemployment was 4.3%, unchanged from May.\u00a0<\/p>\n Dallas\u2019 monthly jobs growth figure outpaced both the Texas and national figures \u2014 as it has continuously since 2020 \u2014 while Dallas\u2019 unemployment rate was in line with the state and national figures. Texas posted a June unemployment rate of 4.4%, while the U.S. rate was 4.2%.\u00a0<\/p>\n The report also showed that local housing demand strengthened, with existing-home sales up 1.3% in June and 3.7% year-over-year \u2014 a figure that was lower than Texas\u2019 home sales increase but higher than the national bump. \u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s been a solid, robust year so far for Dallas,\u201d said Orrenius.\u00a0<\/p>\n Economic growth has been especially notable because economists generally expected headwinds coming into the year, particularly from the Trump administration\u2019s tariff policies and immigration crackdown, which has limited Texas\u2019 labor supply<\/a>. Instead, both the Texas and Dallas economies have expanded at rates near the state\u2019s historical 2% long-term employment growth average: Texas employment, according to the Dallas Fed\u2019s latest data<\/a>, has grown year-to-date by 1.6%, while metro Dallas saw annualized job growth of 1.8% from March through June, according to the bank\u2019s report. Researchers chalk up much of the unexpected growth to the broader artificial intelligence boom<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n \u201cIf you look at the construction part, it\u2019s contributing a lot of jobs,\u201d Luis Torres, an economist based at the Dallas Fed\u2019s San Antonio branch, told The News earlier this summer. \u201cAnd I think a lot of those construction jobs are AI, but overall the economy continues to grow, to chug on, so it\u2019s interesting to see that.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The most recent Dallas earnings data, though, showed movement in the opposite direction: In June, the local average private sector hourly wage was $37.05, down from $37.30 in May. Year over year, metro Dallas earnings were up just 0.5%.\u00a0<\/p>\n Dallas\u2019 June average was still higher than the state average \u2014 Texas workers earned an hourly average wage of $35.63 \u2014 but dipped below the national average, which came in at $37.64. That\u2019s somewhat unusual: Since 2012, according to the Dallas Fed data, Dallas\u2019 average hourly earnings have mostly been higher than the national average, although local wages also dipped below national averages in 2023 and 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n