Texas quarterback Arch Manning enters his redshirt junior season as the most celebrated and scrutinized quarterback in the country and thus is the most intriguing NFL prospect. But he’s not a shoo-in to be the No. 1 overall pick of the 2027 NFL Draft.\u00a0<\/p>\n
There is no denying Manning\u2019s appeal. He\u2019s supremely talented, boasting an ideal blend of size, arm talent and mobility with the Hall of Fame bloodlines every QB-needy NFL franchise would seemingly love to build its team around.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But is it as simple as Manning, whose 2026 season kicks off Saturday against Texas State, “just staying healthy” before earning the distinction of being the top pick next spring?<\/p>\n
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Arch Manning is aiming to become the third member of his family to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. (Photo by Parker S. Freedman\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n
To put it bluntly, no. In a class this gifted<\/a>, no one can afford to simply rest on their r\u00e9sum\u00e9. Not Manning nor Ohio State phenom receiver Jeremiah Smith nor any of the top QBs<\/a>.<\/p>\n But, if Manning can improve in three particular areas, I believe he will follow in his famous uncles\u2019 footsteps and hear his name called first on draft day. \u00a0<\/p>\n 1. Improve In The Quick Game<\/p>\n Like most quarterbacks drawing attention from NFL scouts, Manning will ultimately get drafted because of his ability to accurately throw the football long distances. It is easy to assume that if a quarterback is accurate on longer passes, he\u2019ll also be precise on shorter throws.\u00a0<\/p>\n That was not the case with Manning last year, however. In fact, he was arguably at his worst on the shortest throws \u2014 a flaw that simply must be corrected if he is to earn an early first-round selection next spring.\u00a0<\/p>\n The so-called quick game \u2014 i.e. slants, bubble screens, pop passes \u2014 is as fundamental to the modern era of football as shooting 3-pointers is to modern basketball.\u00a0<\/p>\n These routes have gained importance in recent years with today\u2019s elite pass-rushers and all the exotic scheming and blitzing done to pressure quarterbacks immediately. Signal-callers absolutely must be able to get the ball in and out of their hands efficiently.\u00a0<\/p>\n Manning was surprisingly inaccurate on several short throws last year, espeically early in the season. (Photo by Tim Warner\/Getty Images) <\/p>\n When operating out of the shotgun \u2014 as Manning typically did in 2025 \u2014 quarterbacks are taught to first secure the snap and then simultaneously turn their feet in the direction of the intended receiver while spinning the ball to allow their fingers to grip the laces. Once the ball is comfortably in their grasp, a quick, strong throw should be out long before the pass rush has any chance to get home.\u00a0<\/p>\n Experienced quarterbacks can make these throws seem like little more than extended handoffs, collecting and distributing in one fluid motion.\u00a0<\/p>\n Manning is as quick as you\u2019ll see in this regard. In fact, he\u2019s quicker than most. However, his technique was off and therefore so was his accuracy. Manning didn\u2019t consistently pair his upper and lower body last season, failing to either grip the laces or turn his feet properly (or both), resulting in the ball spraying erratically. These issues were further exacerbated by a sloppy sidearm release that left potential pass-catchers struggling to pick up the ball in flight. With less distance for the ball to cover, receivers had a hard time locating and corralling throws that came in at the head or knee level just as often as they did near the chest, as intended.\u00a0<\/p>\n Manning\u2019s inconsistent accuracy forced receivers to adjust, contributing to a whopping 22 charted drops by Texas receivers, per PFF. It also disrupted opportunities to create yards after the catch.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fortunately, this is a coachable skill that a lot of young quarterbacks struggle with. Manning did improve in this area over the course of last season, eventually showing both greater poise and precision. I expect he will be even better in his second year as the Longhorns\u2019 starter.\u00a0<\/p>\n 2. Work Through His Progressions Better<\/p>\n Too often last year, Manning stared down his primary target and either tried to throw him open or resorted to scrambling. While he was fairly successful at improvising, the competition will be much better in the NFL.\u00a0<\/p>\n It is difficult to convey Manning\u2019s struggles in this area with statistics, but consider this: Per Pro Football Focus, Manning had 10 passes batted down at the line of scrimmage last year. Of all the quarterbacks selected in the NFL Draft in April, only fellow first-year starter Ty Simpson had this many throws knocked down \u2014 and that’s with the 6-foot-1 Simpson attempting 69 more passes at Alabama last year than the 6-foot-4 Manning did for Texas.\u00a0<\/p>\n Arch Manning in Joel Klatt’s top 10 players for 2026 \ud83c\udfc8 Joel Klatt Show It is the same story if we compare Manning to the rest of this year\u2019s loaded quarterback class.\u00a0<\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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