{"id":465840,"date":"2026-10-14T14:50:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T14:50:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/465840\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T14:50:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T14:50:10","slug":"new-texas-senate-poll-shows-where-the-race-stands-before-early-voting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/465840\/","title":{"rendered":"New Texas Senate poll shows where the race stands before early voting"},"content":{"rendered":"

Texas voters are split on the U.S. Senate race<\/a> heading into early voting, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico<\/a> holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The latest University of Texas\/Texas Politics Project poll<\/a> shows Paxton trailing Talarico, 47% to 50%, within the poll’s 3.3-point margin of error, with 1% of voters preferring Libertarian Ted Brown and 2% preferring an unspecified “someone else.”<\/p>\n

It’s the latest in a string of October polls<\/a> showing the race tightening in a state that last elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 1988.<\/p>\n

Here’s what the poll says and how it compares to other October polls.<\/p>\n

\"Texas<\/p>\n

Texas lawmaker James Talarico, a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate, campaigns on July 11, 2026, in El Paso.<\/p>\n

James Talarico, Ken Paxton within Texas Senate poll’s margin of error<\/p>\n

The Texas Politics Project poll was conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 5, with trial ballot results presented among a sample of 861 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.<\/p>\n

The poll found that both candidates are holding their partisan bases: 92% of Republican likely voters picked Paxton, and 98% of Democrats picked Talarico. Among those who recalled voting for Vice President Kamala Harris<\/a> in 2024, 98% back Talarico. Among 2024 President Donald Trump<\/a> voters, 89% back Paxton.<\/p>\n

Trump has made several Texas campaign stops for Paxton in recent weeks, including Oct. 1 in Denton<\/a> and Oct. 7 in San Antonio<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"US<\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump and Republican US Senate candidate Ken Paxton shake hands as they attend a campaign rally at Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Texas, US, October 7, 2026.<\/p>\n

Talarico’s favorability ratings remain strong among Democratic partisans, according to the poll’s analysis, with 92% viewing him favorably and 1% unfavorably, compared with Paxton’s among his Republican base, with 69% viewing him favorably and 15% unfavorably.<\/p>\n

The poll also looked at how independents are breaking and found that independent likely voters prefer Talarico over Paxton, 69% to 11%.<\/p>\n

The poll also broke out support by key demographic groups:<\/p>\n

Latinos: Talarico 54%, Paxton 41%<\/p>\n

Urban: Talarico 54%, Paxton 41%<\/p>\n

Suburbs: Talarico 54%, Paxton 44%<\/p>\n

Rural: Talarico 30%, Paxton 66%<\/p>\n

Women: Talarico 56%, Paxton 40%<\/p>\n

Men: Talarico 42%, Paxton 54%<\/p>\n

Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls<\/p>\n

Here’s what other October polls have shown. Early voting begins Oct. 19:<\/p>\n

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.<\/p>\n

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Texas Senate poll shows where the race stands before early voting<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Texas voters are split on the U.S. Senate race heading into early voting, with Democratic state Rep. James…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":465841,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,29,28],"class_list":["post-465840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=465840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/465840\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/465841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=465840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=465840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=465840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}