{"id":467888,"date":"2026-10-16T14:44:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/467888\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T14:44:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:44:43","slug":"super-el-nino-winter-is-coming-heres-which-texas-cities-will-likely-be-most-affected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/467888\/","title":{"rendered":"Super El Ni\u00f1o winter is coming: Here’s which Texas cities will likely be most affected"},"content":{"rendered":"

The tropical waters across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean continue to warm up rapidly, signaling that\u00a0El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o is continuing to strengthen.<\/a><\/p>\n

According to the latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, sea-surface temperatures have already reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above average. Anything more than 2 degrees warmer than normal is considered by the weather agency to be a “very strong” El Ni\u00f1o, also unofficially known as a “super” El Ni\u00f1o.<\/a><\/p>\n

That already makes this the third-strongest El Ni\u00f1o recorded in the satellite era \u2013 which dates back to 1950 \u2013 trailing only the El Ni\u00f1o events of 1997-98 and 2015-16. However, forecast models show that the current El Ni\u00f1o event will continue to strengthen through the end of the year, potentially becoming the strongest on record by December.<\/p>\n

What does El Ni\u00f1o mean for Texas?<\/p>\n

An active El Ni\u00f1o in the Pacific triggers a significant shift in weather patterns across the globe. In North America, El Ni\u00f1o typically forces the Pacific jet stream to shift southward, resulting in a more active storm track and more frequent cold fronts<\/a> across the southern United States.<\/p>\n

BUSTING El NI\u00d1O MYTHS: 5 things El Ni\u00f1o isn’t: Separating fact from fiction about the weather phenomenon<\/a><\/p>\n

For Texas, that shift in the jet stream typically means below-average temperatures, less sunshine, and more\u00a0precipitation than normal. The strongest effects tend to occur during the winter months, from December through February.<\/p>\n

The biggest change for Texas is the increase in winter precipitation. Weather history shows that strong El Ni\u00f1o events can bring double the typical rainfall to parts of the state. But which Texas cities are the most affected by El Ni\u00f1o? We looked through yearly weather records across different sections of the state to find out.<\/p>\n

\"Sea-surface<\/p>\n

Sea-surface temperatures cross the central and eastern pacific ocean along the equator has grown to 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above average, signaling a super El Ni\u00f1o. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\/WeatherBELL)<\/p>\n

How much rain is coming?<\/p>\n

North Texas: Since 1950, there have been 27 winters with an active El Ni\u00f1o in place. During those winters, the Dallas-Fort Worth area has averaged 6.91 inches of rain \u2013 just 7% higher than during a non-El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o winter. While that is still a slight increase, North Texas is historically the least influenced by the presence of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Southeast Texas: The effects of El Ni\u00f1o become more pronounced farther south. In Houston, El Ni\u00f1o winters have brought an average of 11.34 inches of rain, nearly 20% higher than during non-El Ni\u00f1o winters.<\/p>\n

If we exclude the “weak” \u00a0El Ni\u00f1o events, the difference becomes even more significant. During the nine moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o events since 1950, Houston’s average wintertime rainfall has been 39% higher than during winters without El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

The chances of a “very strong” or a so-called super El Ni\u00f1o persisting into early next year are fairly high, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediciton Center. (Climate Prediction Center\/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)<\/p>\n

South-Central Texas: The effects of El Ni\u00f1o in this section of the state are huge, significantly changing the typical winter climate. In Austin, wintertime rainfall has increased by 38% during El Ni\u00f1o events of any strength, with a 62% increase during moderate-to-strong El Ni\u00f1o events.<\/p>\n

The numbers are even more striking in San Antonio. During an active El Ni\u00f1o, the Alamo City averages 6.88 inches of rain during the winter, nearly 60% more than during a non-El Ni\u00f1o winter. During strong El Ni\u00f1o events, that number jumps to 9.88 inches – more than double the typical amount.<\/p>\n

In Laredo, strong El Ni\u00f1o events have resulted in an average of 4.48 inches of wintertime rainfall, a 149% increase over the non-El Ni\u00f1o average of 1.8 inches.<\/p>\n

West Texas: The difference continues to be staggering across West Texas, a region that is typically quite dry during the winter. In Lubbock and El Paso, El Ni\u00f1o has historically brought about 50% to 70% more wintertime rainfall, while strong El Ni\u00f1o events have resulted in more than double the typical rainfall.<\/p>\n

The effects of El Ni\u00f1o are less pronounced in the Panhandle. Still, Amarillo has recorded about 20% more rainfall when El Ni\u00f1o is in place.<\/p>\n

The strengthening El Ni\u00f1o is likely to bring significant changes to Texas’ weather, especially when it comes to wintertime rainfall. South-Central and West Texas are likely to see the largest increases in moisture, while more subtle increases are expected elsewhere across the state. However, a strong El Ni\u00f1o does not guarantee heavy rainfall \u2013 it only makes it more likely.<\/p>\n

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This article originally published at Super El Ni\u00f1o winter is coming: Here’s which Texas cities will likely be most affected<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The tropical waters across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean continue to warm up rapidly, signaling that\u00a0El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":467889,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,29,28],"class_list":["post-467888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/467888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=467888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/467888\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/467889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=467888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=467888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=467888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}