{"id":468303,"date":"2026-10-16T23:36:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T23:36:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/468303\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T23:36:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T23:36:09","slug":"prediction-markets-think-2-texas-republicans-will-lose-their-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/468303\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets think 2 Texas Republicans will lose their election"},"content":{"rendered":"

Early voting in Texas starts on Monday, and as of now, two of the state’s biggest races-for governor<\/a> and the U.S. Senate<\/a>-remain closely contested.<\/p>\n

Over the past decade, the accuracy of polls has repeatedly been called into question as they were often very inaccurate during the 2016 presidential race. The Pew Research Center recently highlighted reasons polls might not be reliable in 2026, including synthetic AI polling, the impact of mail-in ballot changes, and the uncertainty around data centers as a wedge issue.<\/p>\n

This year, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are offering a new way to track the likelihood of a particular race swinging toward Republicans or Democrats. Here’s who bettors are predicting will win Texas’ biggest races with Election Day a little more than two weeks away:<\/p>\n

Texas Senate: James Talarico opens a big lead over Ken Paxton<\/p>\n

Both Kalshi and Polymarket show Democrat James Talarico with a big lead over Republican Ken Paxton as of Friday afternoon. Kalshi has Talarico ahead 61% to 39% and Polymarket has Talarico ahead at 62% to 40%.<\/p>\n

Despite Talarico’s lead, both Kalshi and Polymarket have the race tightening over the past couple weeks. Talarico had been up to 66% on Kalshi and 68% on Polymarket earlier this month. Kalshi shows that more than $30.4 million has been spent trading on this race.<\/p>\n

Texas Governor: Greg Abbott dominating Gina Hinojosa in prediction markets\"Republican<\/p>\n

Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in prediction market trading on Polymarket as of Oct. 16, 2026. (Polymarket)<\/p>\n

Most polling shows Gov. Greg Abbott in the toughest gubernatorial race of his political career. Recent polls actually showed Hinojosa ahead<\/a> before Abbott regained the lead by a single point. But not nearly as many people are willing to bet on Hinojosa winning.<\/p>\n

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have Abbott ahead by 50 points. He leads 75% to 25% on Kalshi and 76% to 25% on Polymarket. Currently this is one of the biggest gaps between what polls are showing and the public’s confidence.<\/p>\n

Texas Lieutenant Governor: Dan Patrick still holds huge lead over Vikki Goodwin<\/p>\n

It’s a similar story in the race for lieutenant governor. While stories abound about Dan Patrick in a neck-and-neck race with Democrat Vikki Goodwin, few in the prediction markets see it the same way.<\/p>\n

Kalshi has Patrick comfortably ahead at 72% to 28%.<\/p>\n

Texas Railroad Commissioner: Bo French could lose following racist posts\"Controversial<\/p>\n

Controversial Republican Bo French is losing on Kalshi for Texas Railroad Commissioner in what had been historically a very safe seat for Republicans. (Kalshi)<\/p>\n

While people spending on prediction markets don’t see Abbott or Patrick in trouble, the same can’t be said for Bo French, the Republican candidate for Texas Railroad Commissioner. French has made a name for himself by being a terrible<\/a> human being<\/a>. At times it’s been too much for even fellow Republicans like Abbott<\/a>, and Sens. John Cornyn<\/a> and Ted Cruz<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Houston Chronicle Editorial Board recently put together a list of all the worst Democrat and Republican candidates<\/a>. The entire ignominious list deserves your attention, but French, who has embraced Islamaphobia as a platform, was not a surprising addition.<\/p>\n

Bettors have taken notice. Kalshi has Democrat Jon Rosenthal leading French 56% to 44%, while Polymarket has it at 50% to 44% for Rosenthal. It remains to be seen whether Texas voters will see it that way, as well.<\/p>\n

Harris County Judge: Leticia Plummer expected to coast to victory<\/p>\n

Only one of the two prediction markets-Kalshi-is letting people bet on the Harris County Judge race, but very few people are betting on anyone except Democrat Letitia Plummer. She leads Republican Orlando Sanchez 90% to 10%.<\/p>\n

This article originally published at Prediction markets think 2 Texas Republicans will lose their election<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Early voting in Texas starts on Monday, and as of now, two of the state’s biggest races-for governor…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":468304,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,29,28],"class_list":["post-468303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/468303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=468303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/468303\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/468304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=468303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=468303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=468303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}