{"id":469539,"date":"2026-10-18T09:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T09:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/469539\/"},"modified":"2026-10-18T09:30:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T09:30:08","slug":"can-ken-paxton-outrun-a-trail-of-scandal-to-win-us-senate-seat-in-ruby-red-texas-ken-paxton","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/469539\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Ken Paxton outrun a trail of scandal to win US Senate seat in ruby-red Texas? | Ken Paxton"},"content":{"rendered":"

Depending how you look at the situation, it is either predictable that Ken Paxton, Texas\u2019s attorney general and Republican candidate for US Senate, is struggling in the polls \u2013 or impressive that he is not doing worse. Beloved by hardcore Maga voters and regarded with skepticism by the broader voting public, Paxton is also puzzlingly bland. Recently, Donald Trump told<\/a> a crowd of supporters that the 63-year-old Paxton \u201cmay not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I\u2019ve ever seen\u201d. The president was endorsing him.<\/p>\n

Yet it is Paxton\u2019s ability to attract \u2013 and somehow scrape through \u2013 scandal that makes him a less charismatic, perhaps, but still kindred spirit of \u201cTeflon Don<\/a>\u201d: nothing sticks. He has survived state prosecution (on securities-related charges that he settled without admitting guilt), impeachment by the Republican-led Texas legislature (on abuse-of-office charges of which he was later acquitted), and so many controversies that it can be difficult to pin down the most outrageous.<\/p>\n

There was the time in 2011 that God appeared to a tech entrepreneur in a red-roofed Dairy Queen in McKinney, Texas<\/a>, and told him to give 100,000 shares of company stock to Paxton, then a state legislator, in what the entrepreneur called a gift and critics called an illegal commission. (Paxton and the entrepreneur denied that allegation.) There was the time in 2013 that Paxton allegedly stole a fellow lawyer\u2019s $1,000 Montblanc pen. (Paxton said that it was a mix-up while going through a security screening at a courthouse.)<\/p>\n

Then there was the time in 2020 that eight of Paxton\u2019s staffers asked the FBI to investigate whether their boss had, as attorney general, abused his office to help a real estate investor and political donor \u2013 in return for a free kitchen renovation and a job for a woman with whom Paxton was having an affair. (Paxton and the real estate investor denied those allegations; the investor was never charged with a crime and Paxton\u2019s impeachment over the matter ended in acquittal.)<\/p>\n

Donald Trump and Ken Paxton at a rally in San Antonio on 7 October 2026. Photograph: Evan Vucci\/Reuters<\/p>\n

And there was the time in 2022 that Paxton\u2019s wife, state senator Angela Paxton, allegedly helped him escape, in a Chevrolet truck, from someone trying to serve him with a subpoena for a federal court case. (Paxton said that the man was harassing him.) That screwball romcom ended sadly, however, when Angela Paxton filed for divorce last year on \u201cbiblical grounds\u201d. Ken Paxton\u2019s scandal sheet includes two alleged extramarital affairs.<\/p>\n

All of it may be catching up to Paxton \u2013 an ultraconservative Republican, in a diverse but still very right-leaning state, who has somehow found himself in a muddy political trench fight with a babyfaced Democratic state legislator, James Talarico, whom Republicans have likened to a \u201cCoexist\u201d bumper sticker<\/a> in human form. Talarico, 37, is a former teacher and a seminarian affiliated with an arch-progressive mainline Christian church in Austin. (Trump has dubbed him \u201cTalafreako\u201d.)<\/p>\n

Texas has not elected a single Democrat to statewide office since 1994 \u2013 the worst state losing streak, for either party, in the United States. But Paxton and Talarico are in a dead heat. Some polls even show<\/a> Talarico leading.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the closest race that we\u2019ve seen in the state in three decades,\u201d James Henson, a political scientist and pollster who directs the Texas Politics Project, said. Rightwing groups in \u201cred-alert mode\u201d, he added, are pouring millions of dollars into the state to prop up Paxton and other Republicans<\/a> fighting for election next month.<\/p>\n

Polls have, famously, been wrong before. But the fact that a Republican candidate in a Republican stronghold is struggling would be notable by itself even if this were not also one of the most high-profile of all the midterm elections. The race is critical to either party securing a Senate majority. It is already one of the most<\/a> expensive<\/a> of its kind in US history.<\/p>\n

Democratic candidate James Talarico at a rally in San Marcos on 15 October 2026. Photograph: Eric Gay\/AP<\/p>\n

The situation has put Paxton \u2013 a hard-right Maga sycophant endorsed by Trump over the misgivings of some other Republicans \u2013 under a harsh and unflattering light. Paxton has repeatedly dodged opportunities to debate<\/a> Talarico, enabling Talarico\u2019s campaign to paint him as cowardly.<\/p>\n

Less than a month before the election, Paxton\u2019s woes keep growing. This week the Wall Street Journal reported<\/a> that in 2024, he was filmed at a New Year\u2019s Eve party in Dubai in the company of an extramarital girlfriend and two men who were under indictment for federal healthcare fraud and considered fugitives from justice. One of them had donated $190,000 to Paxton.<\/p>\n

His campaign has shrugged off the new reporting. \u201cLike President Trump, Ken Paxton has been politically persecuted for years,\u201d a spokesman told the Wall Street Journal. \u201c[A]nd every time, voters have seen through it and sent him back to office because they know he has always fought for Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet in a series of audio clips leaked to the news media by unnamed sources over the past several weeks, even Paxton could be heard admitting, in closed-room conversations with conservative allies, that he and other Republicans in Texas were struggling.<\/p>\n

In one clip, he seemed to say that Trump\u2019s recent midterm convention in Texas \u2013 where voters, as elsewhere, are furious about high fuel costs worsened by the Iran war \u2013 had hurt more than helped. (Trump\u2019s approval numbers, according to recent polling, are at a dire low<\/a>.) In another, he said, \u201cI\u2019ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign \u2026 it\u2019s all coming \u2013 you know \u2013 from DC.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gas prices at a Shell station in Houston on 2 October 2026. Photograph: Ronaldo Schemidt\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Were the tapes leaked by Republicans unhappy<\/a> at the resources the party is expending to save the flailing Paxton? Or by loyalists of John Cornyn, the longtime Republican senator whom Paxton knifed in a party primary, earlier this year, and displaced as the Republican nominee?<\/p>\n

Whatever the case, the tapes are embarrassing. \u201cI thought that was a bad look for Ken Paxton,\u201d Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said. \u201cIt makes it look like he\u2019s not grateful for all of the help that\u2019s come to him. He needed all the attention that Trump can give. It may be that it comes with these caveats, and it\u2019s not an unqualified good. But without Donald Trump, there would be no Ken Paxton.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Scandal resilience\u2019<\/p>\n

As attorney general of Texas, Paxton sued the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia for, he claimed, voting irregularities that had stolen the 2020 presidential election from Trump. The lawsuit lacked evidence and critics on both sides of the aisle accused the lawsuit of being a political stunt and legal farce; some even speculated<\/a> that Paxton was vying to win Trump\u2019s favor in case his legal problems necessitated a presidential pardon. (Paxton\u2019s campaign did not reply to an opportunity to provide comment for this story.)<\/p>\n

Earlier this year Trump repaid Paxton\u2019s loyalty when he endorsed him for Senate over Cornyn \u2013 the more bipartisan, respected and generally less scandal-prone politician who had represented Texas in the Senate, as a conservative Republican, since 2002.<\/p>\n

Journalists, ex-employees, and political opponents have also questioned<\/a> Paxton\u2019s expensive and jet-setting tenure as attorney general, as well as the perks he has enjoyed and the energy he has often seemed to devote to building a national profile in the Maga movement, according to critics, instead of solving problems in Texas.<\/p>\n

Senator John Cornyn at the US Capitol last month. Photograph: Tom Williams\/CQ-Roll Call, Inc\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Of course, many Texans are well aware of Paxton\u2019s alleged trespasses, some of which go back years, and have repeatedly elected him to office anyway. (The pen-theft allegation is less well-known, though the Talarico campaign \u2013 which did not respond to a query from the Guardian \u2013 recently began selling<\/a> ballpoint pens marked \u201cNot Ken Paxton\u2019s Pen\u201d.)<\/p>\n

Jed Silverman, an attorney who prosecuted the state securities case against Paxton, noted that, in the eyes of the law, Paxton has a clean bill of health. \u201cMy opinion of him, my subjective belief one way or another, really doesn\u2019t matter,\u201d he said. \u201cHe made an agreement with the state, did what he was supposed to do, and got his cases resolved.\u201d<\/p>\n

For his part, Rottinghaus, whose recent research has studied politicians\u2019 ability to navigate scandal, views Paxton\u2019s career as \u201ca textbook example of \u2018scandal resilience\u2019\u201d. Political polarization, he noted, \u201chas raised the standards for what a scandal breaking point is\u201d. Voters in the Republican or Democratic bases are more likely to weigh their candidate\u2019s alleged ethical lapses against a sense that their party \u201cneeds to win\u201d.<\/p>\n

Bill Miller, a Texas political consultant and lobbyist, made a similar point. \u201cBaggage is something that the American public seemingly has learned to accept,\u201d he said. Trump has \u201cbeen elected twice, and everyone knows who he is and all that comes with that. I mean, people don\u2019t expect squeaky clean. They hope they get squeaky clean, but they elect people who aren\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n

Miller noted that he has known Paxton for years and is friendly with him; despite Paxton\u2019s blotted public image and reputation as bumbling and less than charismatic, he described him as a savvy operator with a Bill Clinton-style facility for remembering people\u2019s names and a history of being underestimated by political opponents.<\/p>\n

Silverman, similarly, called Paxton a \u201cpolitical animal\u201d.<\/p>\n

The national political climate is overwhelmingly tough right now for Republican candidates, and strategists and pollsters are predicting that the midterm elections could be a bruising referendum on Trump\u2019s second presidency. From that vantage, Paxton is facing uniquely fierce headwinds, or is uniquely ill-chosen for the moment, or both. His unorthodox opponent has benefited.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Democrats<\/a> were looking for somebody who wasn\u2019t a traditional politician,\u201d Rottinghaus said. \u201cTalarico fit that mold. He kind of looks like a youth minister, he talks like a choirboy and he\u2019s committed to his values, which Democrats like and independents feel like they can trust. He\u2019s a good candidate in that way. There\u2019s baggage, though, that people are ignoring.\u201d<\/p>\n

James Talarico at a grocery drive in Dallas on 9 September 2026. Photograph: Brandon Bell\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Talarico has never held a statewide elected office. And, though he has tilted toward the center, he has a record<\/a> of statements and policy stances that would be eyebrow-raisingly \u201cwoke\u201d in Brooklyn, let alone in suburban Texas. Republicans are growing frustrated, Rottinghaus added, because they believe that he has been able to define himself to the public in a \u201cway that isn\u2019t the real James Talarico\u201d.<\/p>\n

Based on remarks Talarico made in the past about the environmental costs of eating meat, conservatives have even accused him of being a closeted vegetarian, a charge that he denies. In March, his campaign posted<\/a> a photograph, hostage-style, of Talarico eating barbecue.<\/p>\n

This month Talarico disappeared from the campaign trail for more than a week, prompting Democratic concerns as well as wild Republican rumors that he was secretly seeking mental health treatment in Ohio; his campaign has said that he had a bad flu, and had never been to Ohio. The campaign went so far as to provide<\/a> the New York Times with time-stamped security camera footage from the days-long stretch that he was convalescing at home.<\/p>\n

\u2018The hide of a rhinoceros\u2019<\/p>\n

Flipping a Texas Senate seat or governorship is a holy grail of the Democratic party: a seismic political victory that many hope could set the party on a path to winning the second-largest state in the union in a presidential election. The last time that happened was 1976.<\/p>\n

For Republicans, losing to Talarico would be psychologically shattering \u2013 though there are those who might argue, perhaps with some credence, that Paxton was a uniquely flawed candidate.<\/p>\n

Yet the memory of Beto O\u2019Rourke\u2019s 2018 longshot bid to unseat Senator Ted Cruz still haunts Democrats. O\u2019Rourke attracted enormous Democratic enthusiasm and money but ultimately lost by 2.6 percentage points. Democratic donors felt burned. After a short-lived presidential bid, O\u2019Rourke ran again in 2022 \u2013 for Texas governor, against incumbent Greg Abbott \u2013 and lost by an even larger margin.<\/p>\n

Despite Paxton\u2019s tainted image and tight poll numbers, there are factors in his favor.<\/p>\n

One is money<\/a>. Nationally and in Texas \u2013 and even as Democrats are reporting impressive fundraising<\/a> in key races \u2013 Republicans have a considerable advantage in campaign spending. To protect the seat of Governor Abbott, a Republican fighting for re-election against the Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa, a conservative political action committee has been spending<\/a>, by one estimate, nearly $1m a day.<\/p>\n

\u201cPaxton or any other Republican on the ballot is a beneficiary\u201d of Abbott\u2019s spending, Miller said, \u201cbecause what that money does is find Republicans under every bush and rock and make sure that they\u2019re motivated and they vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

And Elon Musk is personally bankrolling a Super Pac to back Paxton\u2019s Senate bid.<\/p>\n

Ken Paxton watching Vice-President JD Vance speak at a rally in Tyler, Texas, on 13 October 2026. Photograph: Saul Loeb\/Pool AFP\/AP<\/p>\n

Republican get-out-the-vote efforts, meanwhile, seem aimed less at reaching undecided voters, according to Henson, the political scientist and pollster, and more at \u201cshoring up support and enthusiasm among a probably relatively small, but still crucial, band of Republican voters who might be considering either sitting this election out entirely or at least not voting for Paxton\u201d.<\/p>\n

Even Angela Paxton has now appeared<\/a> in a political ad urging Republican voters to support the ticket. \u201cEither we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team,\u201d she argued. She did not mention her ex-husband, but the message was clear.<\/p>\n

The other advantage Paxton holds is the political composition of Texas. Although the state\u2019s major cities tilt Democratic and the state has become more diverse, urban and \u201cpurple\u201d in recent years, a slightly higher percentage of its population is rural<\/a> compared with other large states such as Florida and California. \u201cThose small communities\u201d, Miller said, were \u201cnot purple, they\u2019re not orange, they\u2019re blood-fucking-red\u201d.<\/p>\n

So far, according to polling, Democrats in Texas are seeing higher enthusiasm from their base than Republicans are seeing from theirs, Henson said, though Republican enthusiasm has begun to pick up. In a few weeks, Texas will find out the results. Even if Paxton loses, he will no doubt land on his feet somewhere in Maga political world.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey say you need the sensitivity of a violinist and the hide of a rhinoceros to be good in this business,\u201d Miller said. \u201cWell, I don\u2019t know if he has the sensitivity of a violinist, but he\u2019s damn sure got the hide of a rhinoceros.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Depending how you look at the situation, it is either predictable that Ken Paxton, Texas\u2019s attorney general and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":469540,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,29,28],"class_list":["post-469539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=469539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469539\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/469540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=469539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=469539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=469539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}