ALSO | Abbott raked in $9 million from data center-related donors as he called for regulations<\/a><\/p>\nEven with Talarico leading on the platform, Kagan emphasized that the odds reflect trading activity, not a direct measure of how Texans are voting.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the way that I would put it is 60 percent is not 100 percent,\u201d said Kagan. \u201cTalarico is currently trading at 62 percent on our market. That is not 100 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n
Legal questions remain about how prediction markets operate in Texas and what protections exist for users.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are not explicitly allowed to operate in Texas. They do operate in Texas because they claim that they\u2019re under federal jurisdiction,” said Austin attorney Jay Stewart, managing law partner at Hance Scarborough.<\/p>\n
Stewart said the companies point to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, as the federal agency that oversees them, describing their products as “swaps.”<\/p>\n
The attorney said the platforms\u2019 presence in Texas raises issues related to state gambling laws and consumer protections.<\/p>\n
\u201cBecause these industries are not regulated by the state, they do not have licenses. There is no recourse,\u201d said Stewart.<\/p>\n
Stewart argues Texans could have limited options if there is a dispute with a platform.<\/p>\n
He says Texas law has long treated gambling as an area regulated by states, and he pointed to the Texas Penal Code, Section 4702, as part of the legal debate.<\/p>\n
He said the statute prohibits sports betting and election betting \u2014 categories he said are among the biggest moneymakers for prediction markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is solely consumer protection,\u201d Stewart said when asked about the danger of prediction markets compared with traditional sports betting platforms.<\/p>\n
He also mentioned how a number of attorney generals have filed litigation and complaints against the prediction markets, adding that those officials want the platforms regulated by states to ensure \u201cthe integrity of the game.\u201d<\/p>\n
Stewart said Texas did not join those actions.<\/p>\n
Campaign finance records show in May 2025, Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour donated $5,000 to the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which has ties to Paxton. A month later, Mansour donated $7,000 to Paxton\u2019s Senate campaign.<\/p>\n
When asked about the donations, Kalshi said, \u201cLike many leaders at U.S. regulated companies, ours support candidates on both sides of the aisle.\u201d<\/p>\n
Our research did not reveal any involvement with Talarico.<\/p>\n
Stewart also raised concerns about gambling addiction safeguards and oversight, saying there is \u201cvery, very little consumer protection\u201d and describing the regulatory structure as \u201cself-regulation.\u201d<\/p>\n
The broader debate centers on whether event contracts fall under federal financial rules or should be considered gambling under state law.<\/p>\n
Earlier this year, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick asked state senators to study prediction markets<\/a> ahead of next year\u2019s legislative session.<\/p>\nStewart questioned what prediction markets could mean for elections.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ll never know because they\u2019re not subject to state regulation,\u201d he said, adding that \u201cElections are too sacred. We don\u2019t want betting on that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Polymarket did not provide an interview response when contacted. Early voting in Texas opened Monday and extends through Oct. 30. The general election date for the 2026 midterms is Nov. 3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"AUSTIN, Texas \u2014 As attention intensifies on Texas\u2019 U.S. Senate race, prediction markets are offering a fast-moving look…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":471024,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,29,28],"class_list":["post-471023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=471023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471023\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/471024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=471023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=471023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=471023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}