{"id":471477,"date":"2026-10-20T09:58:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T09:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/471477\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T09:58:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T09:58:09","slug":"houston-drought-deepens-as-rain-chances-remain-slim-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/471477\/","title":{"rendered":"Houston drought deepens as rain chances remain slim this week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img alt=\"The precipitation outlook from\u00a0NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center for Oct. 24-28 shows below-normal rainfall is expected near and east of Houston, with above-normal precipitation across much of the state.\" loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:16 \/ 9\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofcv bgscv block bg-gray200 mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The precipitation outlook from\u00a0NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center for Oct. 24-28 shows below-normal rainfall is expected near and east of Houston, with above-normal precipitation across much of the state.<\/p>\n<p>NOAA&#8217;s Climate Prediction Center \/ Pivotal Weather<\/p>\n<p>The Houston area\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/news\/houston-weather\/forecast\/article\/houston-pollen-stays-elevated-warm-dry-weather-22482693.php\" data-link=\"native\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">best chance of rain<\/a> this week arrives Tuesday as a coastal atmospheric disturbance could bring a few showers toward the shoreline.<\/p>\n<p>However, most of the rain is expected to stay over the water, with only a slim chance of reaching the coast. The rest of the week looks dry, leaving little relief for soils as drought deepens across Southeast Texas.<\/p>\n<p>Tuesday brings a few coastal showers<\/p>\n<p class=\"MM_onlineOnly\" title=\"CCI Online Only\">HEAT TRACKER: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/projects\/weather\/texas-heat-tracker\/\" data-link=\"native\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Is Texas weather getting more extreme? Find out with the Houston Chronicle\u2019s interactive tracker.<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>Forecast models suggest a few spotty showers will approach the Texas shoreline Tuesday afternoon, especially near\u00a0Matagorda Bay. Some of these may even work as far inland as Victoria or Columbus by Tuesday evening before drying up. Rain chances remain at only 10% to 20%, with higher chances offshore.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"A snapshot from future weather radar modeling shows scattered showers Tuesday evening, mainly offshore of the Texas Gulf Coast. Rain chances Tuesday will be found mainly along the immediate coast south of Houston.\" loading=\"lazy\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:16 \/ 9\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofcv bgscv block bg-gray200 mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>A snapshot from future weather radar modeling shows scattered showers Tuesday evening, mainly offshore of the Texas Gulf Coast. Rain chances Tuesday will be found mainly along the immediate coast south of Houston.<\/p>\n<p>Pivotal Weather<\/p>\n<p>A few light showers could linger near the coast into early Wednesday before fading during the afternoon. For the rest of us, this week\u2019s rain chances are virtually nonexistent.<\/p>\n<p>Dry weather, warmer temperatures through the weekend<\/p>\n<p>After Tuesday, high air pressure will help keep skies mostly dry and winds light across Southeast Texas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>Temperatures will climb into the mid- to upper 80s by Thursday and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/news\/houston-weather\/forecast\/article\/could-houston-lows-fall-into-the-40s-this-weekend-22477366.php\" data-link=\"native\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">stay there through the weekend<\/a>. Morning temperatures will generally land in the lower to mid-60s across the Houston metro area, with temps closer to 70 degrees near the coast.<\/p>\n<p>How much rain would soak Southeast Texas?<\/p>\n<p>Drought has deepened across the region, with nearly all of Southeast Texas now experiencing at least moderate drought, the lowest level of dryness as measured by the U.S. Drought Monitor.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/current_wfohgx_trd.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>Data from the U.S. Drought Monitor\u2019s Oct. 13 map show <a href=\"https:\/\/droughtmonitor.unl.edu\/Maps\/MapArchive.aspx\" data-link=\"native\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">about 97% of the region<\/a> in drought or pre-drought conditions. Nearly 80% is in moderate drought, while about 19% is in severe drought, the next highest level. A week earlier, about 66% of the region was in drought or pre-drought conditions, and none of the region was in severe drought.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MM_onlineOnly\" title=\"CCI Online Only\">WINTER IS COMING: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/news\/houston-weather\/article\/super-el-nino-rainfall-texas-winter-history-22447191.php\" data-link=\"native\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Super El Ni\u00f1o winter is coming: Here\u2019s which Texas cities will likely be most affected<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, or KBDI, offers one way to gauge how dry the ground is by estimating how much rain it would take to saturate the soil. The index is measured in hundredths of an inch, so a value of 500 means roughly 5 inches of rain would be needed.<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"This map of Texas shows the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. The index estimates how much rain is needed to saturate dry soil. Values are shown in hundredths of an inch, so a reading of 500 indicates about 5 inches. Southeast Texas, would need 4 to 6 inches of rain to saturate soils.\" loading=\"eager\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:3 \/ 2\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofct bgsct block bg-black mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>This map of Texas shows the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. The index estimates how much rain is needed to saturate dry soil. Values are shown in hundredths of an inch, so a reading of 500 indicates about 5 inches. Southeast Texas, would need 4 to 6 inches of rain to saturate soils.<\/p>\n<p>Texas A&amp;M AgriLife Research \/ Texas A&amp;M Forest Service<img alt=\"This map of Texas shows the Keetch-Byram Drought Index averaged by county. Across Southeast Texas, most counties would need 4 to 6 inches of rain to saturate soils.\" loading=\"lazy\"   style=\"aspect-ratio:3 \/ 2\" class=\"x100 y100 opc bgpc ofct bgsct block bg-black mnh0px fill\"\/><\/p>\n<p>This map of Texas shows the Keetch-Byram Drought Index averaged by county. Across Southeast Texas, most counties would need 4 to 6 inches of rain to saturate soils.<\/p>\n<p>Texas A&amp;M AgriLife Research \/ Texas A&amp;M Forest Service<\/p>\n<p>The Oct. 19 county-average map shows KBDI values of about 400 to 700 across much of Southeast Texas. Most Houston-area counties fall between 400 and 600, suggesting <a href=\"https:\/\/twc.tamu.edu\/kbdi\" data-link=\"native\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">about 4 to 6 inches of rain<\/a> would be needed to saturate soils. These are broad estimates, not rainfall forecasts. Soil conditions can vary within a county, and rain would need to soak into the ground to make a meaningful difference.<\/p>\n<p class=\"uiTextSmall f aic jcc\">Article continues below this ad<\/p>\n<p>With no reliable signs of widespread wet weather across Southeast Texas over at least the next seven to 10 days, we are left with little prospect for the soaking rain the region needs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The precipitation outlook from\u00a0NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center for Oct. 24-28 shows below-normal rainfall is expected near and east&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":471478,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[56,58,57],"class_list":["post-471477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-houston","tag-houston","tag-houston-headlines","tag-houston-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=471477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/471478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=471477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=471477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=471477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}