{"id":472806,"date":"2026-10-22T00:38:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T00:38:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/472806\/"},"modified":"2026-10-22T00:38:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T00:38:07","slug":"2026-races-in-texas-are-looking-competitive-can-dems-end-32-year-streak-of-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/472806\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 races in Texas are looking competitive. Can Dems end 32-year streak of losses?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>AUSTIN, Texas \u2014 Polling data continues to show what some are describing as the most competitive statewide elections in Texas this century as Democrats fight to end a streak of statewide losses spanning over three decades.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent Democratic win in a U.S. Senate election in Texas was in 1988. The most recent Democratic win in a gubernatorial race in Texas was in 1990.<\/p>\n<p>The last time a Democrat won any statewide office in the Lone Star State was 1994. <\/p>\n<p>Flash forward to 2026, and some analysts and political science experts believe a Democratic win may be possible again, particularly in the Senate race between Democratic State Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.<\/p>\n<p>The polling<\/p>\n<p>Polling released Wednesday by the Cook Political Report shows Talarico leading Paxton by 5% among likely voters. Other recent polls, like a CBS News Poll, show Talarico leading by 2% among likely voters, within the margin of error.<\/p>\n<p>Down-ballot, polls continue to show competitive statewide races as well.  The same Cook survey shows Gov. Greg Abbott leading his Democratic challenger, State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, by 2% among likely voters.<\/p>\n<p>From lieutenant governor to land commissioner, polls show races that are closer than in recent memory.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The polling is obviously pretty tight, and so we&#8217;ll definitely see a competitive race,&#8221; said Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Houston. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cbsaustin.com\/news\/local\/texas-counties-see-high-early-voting-turnout-in-midterms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ALSO| Texas counties see high early voting turnout in midterms<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Brian Smith, political science professor at St. Edward&#8217;s University, said it&#8217;s still very possible for Republicans to overcome the trends favoring Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s all about which party does a better job motivating their base out to vote,&#8221; he said. &#8220;High turnout among the Republicans can negate any of those political headwinds their party is facing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>What Democrats are saying<\/p>\n<p>Chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, Kendall Scudder, said he believes the Democratic coalition in Texas is larger than in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It is working-class Texans of all stripes that have been fed up with the billionaires treating their tax dollars like their own personal feeding trough, and they&#8217;re ready to make sure that their own tax dollars go towards their own communities,&#8221; Scudder said.<\/p>\n<p>Scudder added that the party is focused on grassroots support and meeting with voters directly ahead of the election.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We can&#8217;t just camp out in Austin and expect to buy our way out of problems,&#8221; he said. &#8220;This is showing up in communities, shaking hands, telling people what we stand for, looking them in their eye and asking them for their vote.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>What Republicans are sayingPaxton publicly acknowledged the competitive nature of the race this week at a tour stop in Conroe.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Every poll in this race says we have a close race, and it&#8217;s gonna come down to the wire,&#8221; he told supporters, encouraging them to vote early.<\/p>\n<p>Locally, the Travis County GOP is out rallying voters to support Republican candidates as Election Day nears.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Really, there&#8217;s no excuse not to vote, but we have to make that personal connection to make sure people know they&#8217;re invited to and know that it&#8217;s important,&#8221; said Andy Hogue, communications director for the Travis County GOP.<\/p>\n<p>Hogue said the party is well aware of the competitive nature of the race, but doesn&#8217;t have full faith in the numbers ahead of the official results.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Well, we&#8217;re under no illusions. Beto O&#8217;Rourke came very close to unseating Ted Cruz. We&#8217;re very aware of that. We&#8217;re also aware that Ken Paxton has his troubles as well. But we also know that polling goes unregulated,&#8221; Hogue said.<\/p>\n<p>How the results could shape Texas politics<\/p>\n<p>A Democratic statewide win in Texas could have lasting impacts. Rottinghaus said the competitive nature of the election alone could be felt moving forward.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;For Democrats, that&#8217;s good news. They may not win, they may not flip Texas, but at least they&#8217;ll be competitive. And if they can show that the recipe exists for them to be competitive, then they&#8217;ll be able to recreate that in the future,&#8221; Rottinghaus said.<\/p>\n<p>Democrats, like Scudder, believe that ending the streak of Democratic losses could change the Republican Party in the state.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What it will mean for the people of Texas is that Republicans finally got a check on their bad behavior, and they&#8217;re forced to moderate themselves if they want to be competitive in Texas. It means a government that is focused on solutions, not one on ideological battles,&#8221; Scudder said.<\/p>\n<p>Republicans, like Hogue, however, say they don&#8217;t believe one or two Democratic wins will necessarily cause a &#8220;sea change.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;d be a wake-up call for us. Democrats are going on their fourth decade out of power,&#8221; Hogue said. &#8220;Republicans will hold power overall, but we need to articulate our message, work better on our primary candidates, and make sure that we get the word out on who better reflects your values.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Early voting continues across the state until Friday, Oct. 30.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"AUSTIN, Texas \u2014 Polling data continues to show what some are describing as the most competitive statewide elections&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":472807,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[27,29,28],"class_list":["post-472806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-texas","tag-texas","tag-texas-headlines","tag-texas-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=472806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/472806\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/472807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=472806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=472806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=472806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}