![\"James](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1793268502_961_talarico-paxton-split.png\")
<\/p>\nNEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!\n <\/p>\n
I met Mark, in his late 50s, at an upscale restaurant in downtown Dallas. He is a lifelong Democrat and an immigration attorney, and, in general, is the kind of voter Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico needs not only to vote for him but to be excited to do so.<\/p>\n
“My dad worked the railroad, made me go to college, we were LBJ [Lyndon B. Johnson] Democrats, and well, let\u2019s just say, Talarico is obviously very different from Johnson, or even Ann Richards [Texas\u2019 last Democratic governor, who served in the 1990s].”<\/p>\n
Mark declined to tell me who he was voting for, or even whether he would vote, but I suspect Talarico can count on him, especially given Mark\u2019s less-than-favorable view of Republican Ken Paxton. But there was no excitement when he talked about the race. Like so many others I spoke with, he said, “This isn\u2019t like when Beto [O\u2019Rourke] ran.”<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, left, and his Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Brandon Bell\/Getty Images; Brandon Bell\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n
FOX NEWS POLL: IT\u2019S A LONE STAR SENATE SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TALARICO AND PAXTON<\/a><\/p>\n If enthusiasm is a potential weak point for the Talarico campaign, then an even more worrisome one is his lagging support in the Black community, long the bedrock of Texas Democratic politics.<\/p>\n Jay and Darryl are two Black men in their 50s whom I met while they were having breakfast near the AT&T Discovery District. They each have very different ideas about what is going to happen Tuesday, when voters have their final say.<\/p>\n Jay told Fox News Digital of the Senate race, “Actually, I don\u2019t think it’s going to be close, he\u2019s going to kill it, because he can get people to flip over,” adding, “He would have had a harder time with [Sen. John] Cornyn.”<\/p>\n Darryl, however, seemed less convinced, arguing that in Texas, “Conservatives aren\u2019t loud, they don\u2019t march, they don\u2019t act up, they paint their hair, but I think they are the silent majority.”<\/p>\n Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is facing a problem with Black voter enthusiasm in Texas, according to insiders. (John Moore\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n TALARICO SKIPS BERNIE SANDERS RALLY IN TEXAS, CAMPAIGNS SEPARATELY AS SENATE RACE HEATS UP<\/a><\/p>\n Both men agreed that Talarico\u2019s failure to mend fences with his primary opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, is a problem for Talarico, but they differed on how significant a problem it was, with Jay arguing, “She\u2019s still helping, just down-ballot.”<\/p>\n Carlos, who lives in Dallas and works in a hotel, told me over a cigar that looking “at the trajectory of America\u2026 I just don\u2019t feel represented in any way.” He went on to say, “I really wanted to believe it, the whole thing about no wars\u2026 my gas is super expensive from the people who said there was not going to be a war.”<\/p>\n VOTERS PREPARE TO WEIGH IN ON TRUMP’S ECONOMY AS COSTS CONTINUE TO SURGE<\/a><\/p>\n This is good news for Talarico, in part because Carlos is a Joe Rogan fan who, though not a President Donald Trump voter, was open to the possibility that Trump could sway him, something that has not happened.<\/p>\n On the other side of the ledger for Talarico, or perhaps I should say for Paxton, is Debbie, a suburban mother who told Fox News Digital, “I\u2019m a moderate, I have voted for Democrats, I voted for Beto, but Talarico just says so much crazy stuff, it’s too much for Texas.”<\/p>\n Had these conversations taken place across the Lone Star State, it might be good news for Talarico, but all of these people are in the Dallas area, where he needs to rack up major numbers to offset GOP dominance in rural areas.<\/p>\n On Tuesday, I spoke with GOP consultant Vinny Minchillo before we appeared on “The Will Cain Show.” He said, “I do not like what I see in the early voting for Paxton.” He estimated that the GOP was about 100,000 votes behind but acknowledged that, as a consultant, he never tries to paint a rosy picture.<\/p>\n Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican U.S. Senate candidate, during a “Come and Take It Tour” campaign event in San Antonio, Texas, on Oct. 18, 2026. (Christopher Lee\/Bloomberg\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n TRUMP WON THIS RELIABLY RED STATE BY DOUBLE DIGITS. NOW A DEADLOCKED RACE IS BRINGING HIM BACK<\/a><\/p>\n When asked specifically about the early vote in the Black community, he told Fox News Digital, “It looks like it is down.” So again, a mixed bag.<\/p>\n One wild-card issue that continues to come up in my conversations on the ground is the riots in France<\/a>, with one voter telling me, “What if that was New York City, or D.C.? That doesn\u2019t really seem impossible.”<\/p>\n The GOP, especially at Vice President JD Vance\u2019s rallies, has been hitting the France issue and what it says about unchecked immigration, hard in recent days, and I would expect that to continue.<\/p>\n![\"james](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/james-talarico-with-voters.png\")
<\/p>\n![\"Ken](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-tx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/ken-paxton-rally.png\")
<\/p>\n