Arizona +150 vs. Texas TechOklahoma State -9.5 (-112) vs. Iowa StateClemson +6 (-112) vs. Florida StateArizona vs. Texas Tech Best Bet<\/p>\n
In this week’s edition of my favorite upset picks<\/a>, I broke down why I’m betting Arizona to upset Texas Tech:<\/p>\n Texas Tech showed its true colors against Cincinnati last week. The Red Raiders simply aren’t as good a team as the betting market says they are. Arizona ranks right next to them in adjusted net EPA per play, at 27th compared to 25th, but the Wildcats outrank them significantly in net success rate, ranking 14th in the country compared to Texas Tech at 32nd.<\/p>\n Texas Tech’s offense is average at best, ranking outside the top 50 in almost every metric. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have one of the best passing attacks in the country, ranking fourth in EPA per pass. The wrong team is favored in this game.<\/p>\n Pick: Arizona +150<\/p>\n Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Best Bet<\/p>\n This is a terrible stylistic matchup for Iowa State. Oklahoma State’s biggest strength is its passing game, led by Drew Mestemaker, who has them ranking 14th in the country in both EPA per pass and pass success rate. Now they get to face a terrible Iowa State secondary that ranks 106th in opponent EPA per pass and 103rd in defensive pass success rate.<\/p>\n I’ll bet on the good time to continue to roll for the Cowboys. I’ll lay the points on Oklahoma State.<\/p>\n Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5 (-112)<\/p>\n Clemson vs. Florida State Best Bet<\/p>\n There isn’t enough to separate these two teams to justify a 6-point spread. Clemson enters the game ranking 51st in net adjusted EPA per play and 91st in net success rate. By comparison, Florida State ranks 52nd and 106th in those two metrics.<\/p>\n The Clemson defense has also been extremely good this season, including ranking eighth in college football in opponent EPA per play.<\/p>\n I’ll take the points with the Tigers on the road.<\/p>\n Pick: Clemson +6 (-112)<\/p>\n Follow Iain on\u00a0X<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Instagram<\/a><\/p>\n You can check out all of\u00a0Iain’s bets here!<\/a><\/p>\n Register with DraftKings today and get $200 in bonus bets + 3 months of NBA League Pass. <\/a>Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code<\/a> offer by making a $5 deposit, applying your bonus token and making your first $5 wager.<\/p>\n Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.<\/p>\n If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/assets.minutemediacdn.com\/platform\/google_discover_icon.svg\"){kind=icon}
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