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Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg speaks at his campaign launch party. Credit: Michael Karlis<\/p>\nFormer San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg speaks at his campaign launch party. Credit: Michael Karlis<\/p>\n
Last week, after significant speculation, former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg finally announced he would seek to unseat Peter Sakai in the Democratic primary for Bexar County judge.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cFive months ago, I walked out of the mayor\u2019s office for the last time,\u201d Nirenberg said in front of hundreds of supporters at north-of-downtown gathering spot Backyard on Broadway. \u201cSince then, I\u2019ve heard a lot of rumors about my political future. As you\u2019ve heard, my North Star has always been the people of this community and the work that needs to be done right here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even so, Nirenberg\u2019s announcement came months after he told the Express-News in January that he had \u201cno interest in the county judge position.\u201d To be sure, the former mayor had once been talked about as a possible contender for a Biden White House job, and earlier this fall, the chattering class speculated that he\u2019d set his sights on running for governor or federal office.<\/p>\n
So, why the change of heart?\u00a0<\/p>\n
Experts tell the Current county judge is the seat that Nirenberg could feasibly win.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cI think he peered out and realized he didn\u2019t really have a path to federal office, and he wasn\u2019t inclined to go to Washington since Democrats aren\u2019t in charge,\u201d UT-San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor said. \u201cSo, he probably thought if he was going to run for something and leverage something like positive vibes about him as mayor, then the best opportunity is to run for county judge.\u201d<\/p>\n
To Taylor\u2019s point, Nirenberg left the mayor\u2019s office with a 56% approval rating, according to an April 2025 survey by UT-San Antonio\u2019s Center for Public Opinion Research. What\u2019s more, political observers argue he has better name recognition than Sakai, who\u2019s remained relatively unknown despite leading one of Texas\u2019s largest counties for the past four years.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u2018Not a lot of ideological daylight\u2019<\/p>\n
There\u2019s just one problem: it may be difficult for Nirenberg to convince Democratic voters that change is in order when it comes to county judge.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s not a whole lot of ideological daylight between the two,\u201d said political consultant Kelton Morgan, who served as a consultant on Nirenberg\u2019s 2017 and 2019 mayoral races.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe contrast that Ron is trying to present is that we need strong leadership. That\u2019s not the kind of bullshit that motivates people to vote,\u201d Morgan added. \u201cYou can\u2019t be running against an incumbent in a primary and say that without pointing to the failures of leadership of the person you\u2019re running against.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the media-shy Sakai hasn\u2019t exactly seized the spotlight, he hasn\u2019t necessarily done anything to turn people against him either. That much is event evident from a recent endorsement from the Deputy Sheriff\u2019s Association of Bexar County, which last week said its members will continue their endorsement of Sakai until \u201cthere\u2019s some reason to rescind it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sakai also vocally supported Propositions A and B, which raised the county visitor tax to 2% to publicly finance a new Spurs arena and fund improvements to the area surrounding the Frost Bank Center. Nirenberg also supported the propositions, both of which passed.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cHonestly, the best thing for Ron would have been if those failed,\u201d Morgan said. \u201cIf that had failed, people would be pissed at Sakai, donors would be pissed at Sakai and Ron would have an opening. But Ron doesn\u2019t have that.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ready to Work?<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Nirenberg\u2019s candidacy does come with baggage, most notably San Antonio\u2019s job training program, Ready for Work, which has yet to meet expectations for the number of individuals served and placed in new positions. Ambitious new programs can be slow-building affairs, but opponents still could weaponize the sluggish movement.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cAnybody who wants to [run against Nirenberg] should hang Ready to Work around his neck like an anchor,\u201d Morgan said. \u201cThat has been the most disastrous policy failure by any possible metric.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sakai\u2019s lack of controversy and the baggage Nirenberg picked up during his years at City Hall suggest it\u2019s the former mayor\u2019s race to lose, according to Democratic political consultant Bert Santiba\u00f1ez.<\/p>\n
Most analysts watching the race aren\u2019t taking the top of the Democratic primary ticket into account, Santiba\u00f1ez added. Those include popular candidates who could turn higher turnout, including State Reps. Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico, who are running for governor and the U.S. Senate, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cI think we\u2019ll see an increase in turnout overall,\u201d Santiba\u00f1ez said. \u201cI think that favors Nirenberg, because it\u2019ll bring out more progressives or younger voters. Sakai, his voting block is typically seniors.\u201d<\/p>\n
Further, any upcoming elections, local or national, are expected to be referendums on the Trump presidency. That means Democrats will likely gravitate toward, younger, fierier candidates who appear better able to stand up to the president and his ally, Gov. Greg Abbott, Santiba\u00f1ez said<\/p>\n
Looking for leadership<\/p>\n
Another factor that may play in Nirenberg\u2019s favor is current Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones, who still appears to be settling into her role and learning the ropes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The county judge position is elastic and can be modeled in a way that best serves the person who holds office, UTSA\u2019s Taylor said. For example, former Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff wielded considerable power thanks to his dealmaking prowess, whereas Sakai has taken a more nuanced approach.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Santiba\u00f1ez speculates that voters may be missing Nirenberg\u2019s ability to build coalitions and consensus as mayor. They may yearn to see him bring that skill set to the county judge\u2019s office.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a lack of direction and leadership in the Mayor\u2019s Office and a lack of vision or someone that can build consensus,\u201d Santiba\u00f1ez said. \u201cRon, when he was mayor, was able to do that really well. So, I think it makes sense in the county judge position that he would approach it the same way, and I think there\u2019s a need for that type of steady, assertive leadership.\u201d<\/p>\n
With a little over three months to go before the March 6 Democratic primary, the biggest challenge for Nirenberg may be fundraising, Morgan said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The political consultant speculates Nirenberg will need at least $1.5 million to run a respectable campaign against a well-liked incumbent. The former mayor had just $7,000 in cash on hand last month, according to his most recent campaign finance report.<\/p>\n
As the race heats up, Morgan added, Sakai\u2019s biggest weakness may prove to be his humility.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cPeter should sing his own successes a little bit louder,\u201d Morgan said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Subscribe to SA Current newsletters.<\/a><\/p>\n Follow us:\u00a0Apple News<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Google News<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0NewsBreak<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Reddit<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Instagram<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Facebook\u00a0<\/a>| Twitter<\/a>\u00a0| Or sign up for our\u00a0RSS Feed<\/a><\/p>\n Related Stories<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\tSpeculation has swirled that Nirenberg plans to challenge current Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai in the Democratic primary.\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
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