Redistricting, retirements and realignments are reshaping politics in Texas.<\/p>\n
The state is home to what is likely to be one of the most expensive and divisive Senate contests next year, with fierce battles on both sides.<\/p>\n
The House landscape has been significantly overhauled by a mid-decade redraw of Texas\u2019 congressional map<\/a> at the urging of President Donald Trump, which could help the GOP flip up to five additional seats.\u00a0<\/p>\n And the Lone Star State\u2019s House delegation faces a wave of departures. Nine members are either retiring or running for another office next year: six Republicans and three Democrats, all vacating seats seen as safe for their party. The exodus could erode the delegation\u2019s clout in the House.<\/p>\n Larger trends are at play as well. Republicans made significant gains with working-class Latino voters in 2024, with Trump at the top of the ticket. That was especially notable in a pair of south Texas battleground districts.<\/p>\n But there are already signals that realignment might not hold this cycle. A national poll released last month by the Pew Research Center<\/a> found that 70 percent of Latino voters disapproved of Trump\u2019s job performance, with the president\u2019s hard line on immigration and his handling of the economy as the major drivers.<\/p>\n It\u2019s all happening on a compressed timeline: The Texas primary is March 3, the earliest date on the congressional primary calendar. But even then, the slates may not be settled: If a candidate does not cross 50 percent of the primary vote, the top two finishers will compete in a May 26 runoff.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s how races in Texas are shaping up following Monday\u2019s filing deadline for candidates for office in next year\u2019s midterm elections.<\/p>\n Senate primaries<\/p>\n On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn is fighting for his political future against two leading challengers: state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.\u00a0<\/p>\n The contest among Democrats lost a contender Monday, with former Rep. Colin Allred switching to a House race<\/a> and Rep. Jasmine Crockett joining the Senate race<\/a>. The congresswoman, a social media star known for her viral takedowns of Trump and his allies, faces state Rep. James Talarico, who has quickly built a national profile for blending progressive politics with his Christian faith.\u00a0<\/p>\n Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales<\/a> rates the Senate race Likely Republican.\u00a0<\/p>\n Competitive House races<\/p>\n Out of 38 House races in Texas, just four are rated as competitive by Inside Elections<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n They include the Democrat-held and Latino-majority 28th and 34th districts in south Texas that Trump carried last year \u2014 and which became even more hospitable to the GOP under the new map.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the 34th District, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ranks among the most vulnerable House incumbents<\/a> as he seeks a sixth term. The Democrat, who outperformed the top of the ticket last year,\u00a0has criticized his party for moving too far to the left on abortion and transgender rights. A bevy of Republicans have filed to challenge him, including former Rep. Mayra Flores, who\u2019s twice lost to Gonzalez, Army veteran Eric Flores and businessman Scott Mandel. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.<\/p>\n In the 28th District, Democrat Henry Cuellar has a well-known brand and a culturally moderate voting record that has contributed to his staying power. He had been facing bribery, money-laundering and conspiracy charges but won a \u201cfull and unconditional\u201d pardon<\/a> from Trump last week. While Trump\u2019s move \u2014 which he later expressed regret over after Cuellar filed for reelection as a Democrat \u2014 effectively neutralized a political attack<\/a>, Republicans remain confident that the Laredo-centered seat is winnable. They\u2019ve landed a top recruit to take on the longtime incumbent, with Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat, entering the race last week. Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Democratic.\u00a0<\/p>\n Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is running for reelection in the 15th District, a Rio Grande Valley seat that was largely unchanged in redistricting. Democratic hopes rest with Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, who is already a household name in the region with two Latin Grammy Awards under his belt. But he must first get past emergency medicine physician Ada Cuellar in the primary.<\/p>\n The 35th District, which currently stretches from Austin to San Antonio, has been redrawn as a seat Trump would have carried by 10 points last year. Democratic incumbent Greg Casar has switched to the deep-blue 37th District, where Rep. Lloyd Doggett retired<\/a> to avoid a divisive primary. Republicans have a packed field in the 35th District, now anchored in the San Antonio exurbs. GOP hopefuls include state Rep. John Lujan; Navy veteran Jay Furman, who lost to Rep. Cuellar last year; Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz; and former congressional aide Josh Cortez. Democrats have added the seat<\/a> to their 2026 target list, with Bexar County Sheriff\u2019s deputy Johnny Garcia and Marine veteran John Lira vying for the party nod. Inside Elections rates the race Likely Republican.<\/p>\n Safe Republican House seats<\/p>\n With six Republicans from deep-red districts either retiring or seeking another office, their successors will likely emerge from the GOP primaries.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the Houston-area 8th District, several Republicans are hoping to succeed Rep. Morgan Luttrell, who is stepping down after two terms. Luttrell is supporting former Ted Cruz aide Jessica Hart Steinmann, who worked in the Justice Department during Trump\u2019s first term and at the America First Policy Institute. Army veteran Nick Tran is also running.<\/p>\n Rep. Michael McCaul is retiring after more than two decades in Congress, and multiple Republicans have filed for his 10th District, which now stretches from the Austin suburbs to East Texas. They include attorney Chris Gober, a former general counsel at the National Republican Senatorial Committee who has also represented Elon Musk<\/a>, lobbyist Jessica Karlsruher, businessman Ben Bius and Bee Cave Mayor Kara King.\u00a0<\/p>\n With Rep. Jodey C. Arrington\u2019s retirement, there\u2019s a busy Republican primary for his 19th District in West Texas. Hopefuls include former Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley; Abraham Enriquez, the founder of a conservative Hispanic advocacy group; and consultant and former congressional aide Tom Sell.\u00a0<\/p>\n There\u2019s another crowded Republican race for the 21st District, which Rep. Chip Roy is vacating to run for state attorney general. GOP hopefuls for the Hill Country seat include former Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira; former Federal Election Commissioner James \u201cTrey\u201d Trainor III; former Kendall County GOP Chair Mike Wheeler; and Navy veteran Jason Cahill.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the 22nd District, retiring Rep. Troy Nehls has endorsed his identical twin to succeed him in suburban Houston. Trever Nehls, a former Fort Bend County constable who also has Trump\u2019s support, faces geophysicist Rebecca Clark in the GOP primary.\u00a0<\/p>\n And in the nearby 38th District, Republicans contenders for the seat Hunt is leaving behind to run for Senate include mortgage broker Jon Bonck, Army veteran Barrett McNabb and businesswoman Shelly deZevallos.\u00a0<\/p>\n Several House Republican incumbents are facing primary challengers in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n Among the more notable intraparty races is in the 23rd District, where Rep. Tony Gonzales once again faces pro-gun activist Brandon Herrera. Gonzales, who angered Second Amendment champions by supporting a bipartisan gun violence measure after the Uvalde school shooting in this border\u00a0district, defeated Herrera by just 354 votes in a runoff last year.<\/p>\n In the 31st District, north of Austin, Rep. John Carter won an endorsement from Trump last week as he bids for a 13th term. He\u2019s drawn numerous challengers in next year\u2019s primary, including conservative activist Valentina Gomez, who ran for Missouri secretary of state last year and has gained notoriety for stunts such as burning the Quran, and former infomercial pitchman Offer Vince Shlomi, best remembered<\/a> for promoting \u201cShamWow\u201d towels.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the Houston-area 2nd District, Rep. Daniel Crenshaw is once again facing a challenge from his right in the Republican primary. State Rep. Steve Toth is making his second bid for Congress \u2014 he took 37 percent of the primary vote in a 2016 challenge to then-Rep. Kevin Brady.<\/p>\n Two Democrat-held seats are now safely red as a result of the new GOP-drawn map.\u00a0<\/p>\n They include the 9th District, which takes in conservative Houston exurbs and would have backed Trump by 20 points in 2024. The busy Republican primary includes state Rep. Briscoe Cain; Army veteran Alex Mealer, the losing GOP nominee for Harris County judge in 2022; businessman Dan Mims; and former Rep. Steve Stockman, who served two separate stints in Congress and whose remaining prison sentence over corruption charges was commuted by Trump<\/a> in 2020. Several Democrats have filed for the seat, including retired NASA astronaut Terry Virts, who initially ran for Senate.\u00a0<\/p>\n The 32nd District now stretches from Dallas into deep-red East Texas, and Democratic Rep. Julie Elizabeth Johnson has opted to run for the bluer 33rd District. California Rep. Darrell Issa isn\u2019t running for the seat<\/a> after reportedly weighing a bid to avoid a more competitive race back home. Republicans who are running include pastor and 2024 presidential candidate Ryan Binkley; businessman Paul Bondar, who spent millions<\/a> on an unsuccessful House campaign in Oklahoma last year; businessman Monty Montanez and 2024 nominee Darrell Day.<\/p>\n Safe Democratic House seats<\/p>\n The GOP-led redistricting effort forced some Democratic lawmakers into some tough choices this cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n Rep. Al Green, whose 9th District was transformed into a solid-red bastion, is running for the redrawn 18th District, which includes territory he currently represents. But that will set up a primary battle next year with a future House colleague. Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards, who are vying to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner in a Jan. 31 special election runoff<\/a> for the current version of the 18th District, have both filed for the primary in the redrawn district.<\/p>\n