Bitcoin is currently facing significant bearish technical signals, with multiple analysts and onchain metrics suggesting a potential decline toward $99,000 or even lower. The cryptocurrency has recently broken below a rising wedge pattern on its daily chart, a classic bearish reversal formation that often precedes a sharp correction. This breakdown, observed by analyst Captain Faibik, raises the possibility of Bitcoin testing support levels in the $110,000–$112,000 range before potentially declining further to $105,000–$108,000 [1]. If the selling pressure intensifies and the price fails to hold above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a 20% correction to the key $98,000–$100,000 psychological zone by September becomes increasingly likely [1].

In addition to the wedge breakdown, Bitcoin is exhibiting a 2021-like double top pattern on the weekly chart, a structure that historically has signaled weakening momentum and a high probability of a significant price decline. The 2021 version of this pattern was followed by a 77% correction, with the price falling from around $69,000 to below $16,000 in subsequent months. Analyst Swissblock has noted that the current setup could lead to a similar short-term bearish outcome unless a strong reversal is triggered [2]. According to this pattern, the price could drop to the 50-day EMA level of around $94,750 by September [1]. This would represent a continuation of the bearish narrative playing out across technical indicators and whale activity.

Onchain data further supports the bearish case. Whale address activity has shown a sustained decline in the number of mega-whale wallets (balances over 10,000 BTC) since mid-July, with the count dropping to its lowest level of the year [1]. Similarly, the number of large wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has also decreased, indicating profit-taking near recent highs and increased distribution activity [1]. These trends, combined with the breakdown of bullish technical structures, suggest that Bitcoin may face a broader pullback unless strong on-chain demand returns.

Despite the bearish technical signals, some analysts point to a potential macroeconomic divergence between the 2021 and 2025 cycles. In 2021, Bitcoin peaked as the Federal Reserve began tapering and transitioning toward quantitative tightening. This time, however, the odds favor a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in September, according to CME data [1]. Additionally, a persistently growing global money supply (M2) has led some analysts to propose a more bullish scenario, with price targets as high as $132,000 or even $170,000 in the coming months [1]. Swissblock suggests that these macroeconomic tailwinds could counterbalance the short-term technical weakness, potentially keeping Bitcoin’s broader uptrend intact [2].

However, the bearish sentiment is also reflected in investor psychology. The Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment indicator that combines factors such as trading volume, volatility, and social media sentiment, has dropped below the 47 threshold, signaling a shift from greed to fear in the market [5]. This is a notable change from the previous months, where the index had been in the greed zone since June. Historical data shows that such a shift can sometimes signal the formation of market bottoms, as seen in the June 2025 dip. Whether this current decline is enough to trigger a reversal or if sentiment will continue to deteriorate remains to be seen.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently navigating a complex mix of bearish technical signals and potential macroeconomic support. While the double top and rising wedge patterns suggest a possible drop to $99,000 or below, the Fed’s potential rate cut and growing money supply may provide a counterbalance. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize and rebound or if it will continue its downward trajectory.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Rising Wedge Breakdown: How Low Can … (https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-rising-wedge-breakdown-how-low-can-bitcoin-go)

[2] 2021 Bitcoin Double Top? Crypto Analytics Firm Flags Two … (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/08/19/2021-bitcoin-double-top-crypto-analytics-firm-flags-two-macro-tailwinds-to-fuel-btc-rallies-to-new-all-time-highs/)

[3] Bitcoin Price Prediction Signals Upside as MSTR Stock … (https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-signals-upside-as-mstr-stock-weakens-sharply/)

[4] Bitcoin Warning Signs You Can’t Ignore Right Now (https://medium.com/coinmonks/bitcoin-warning-signs-you-cant-ignore-right-now-dd9af1bd536b)

[5] Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To … (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1057178-20250821)