by Ryan Kemna and Jonathan Fjeld

In setting a new NASCAR Cup Series record for the most wins in a single rookie season, Shane van Gisbergen qualified for his maiden Cup playoff appearance.

Photo: Ryan Kemna/TRE

Photo: Ryan Kemna/TRE

Shane van Gisbergen amassed four race wins – Mexico City in June, Chicago and Sonoma in July and Watkins Glen in August – and finished sixth at Circuit of the Americas in March. He racked up 22 playoff points from his race wins and two stage wins – all from road course races in the regular season.

Normally, that could lock a driver in for a deep playoff run – but he still has work to do on ovals, which comprise nine of the 10 playoff races. In 2025, he has just six top-20 finishes on ovals: 14th at Richmond in August and at Charlotte in May, 18th at Michigan in June, 19th at Indianapolis in July and 20th at Kansas in May and Darlington in April.

As we saw last year, however, anything is possible in the playoffs.

Is there a path to the Cup for Shane van Gisbergen?

Photo: Ryan Kemna/TRE

With three challenging ovals in the Round of 16, including one he has never raced on, SVG has an uphill battle, especially with an average oval finish of 26.9 in 2025.

The first stop of the round, Darlington, has been noted as Van Gisbergen’s favorite oval. In the spring, he finished 20th and seems to learn more about tracks with each trip.

World Wide Technology Raceway Gateway is entirely new for him but brings a similar approach as Richmond, where SVG finished 14th and tied his season-best on ovals.

Darlington and Gateway set up an outside chance for SVG to make the Round of 12 – but Bristol could stand in his way. SVG had a rough race in the spring and struggled with the track in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, albeit with a different car.

Improved strength and consistency on ovals inspires some hope for the No. 88 team’s playoff run. If SVG can maintain strong enough finishes and stay out of trouble, he can advance to the Round of 12.

The Round of 12 features the Charlotte Roval where he is an instant favorite. If SVG can win at the Roval, points are no matter.

Then, the Round of 8 gets harder. Much harder. More on that in a second.

Crunching the numbers on Shane van Gisbergen

Photo: Ryan Kemna/TRE

Here is the average points total a driver has to reach in each round to advance to the next round:

Round of 16

2,077 – Four-season average

2,085 – 2024

SVG is starting the playoffs with 2,022 points. He will need to average around 18-21 points per race to advance. That means amassing an average finish of around 17.5 but he could need less than that if he earns any stage points.

Round of 12

3,106 – Average

3,104 – 2024

(Note: This is Alex Bowman’s points total that provisionally advanced him to the Round of 8 in 2024 before he was disqualified in post-race tech at Charlotte Roval.)

Even if SVG doesn’t win at the Charlotte Roval and can replicate his average road course points total (47), 47 points can reduce the average number of points needed at New Hampshire and Kansas to 17-19 points per race – or an average finish of 18th-20th – not including any stage points.

Round of 8

4,141 – Average

4,156 – 2024

(Note: We included Alex Bowman’s points total that provisionally advanced him to the Round of 8 in 2024 before he was disqualified in post-race tech at Charlotte Roval.)

This is where it gets really hard for SVG – even if sweeping the stages and winning at the Roval boosted him to 4,029 points.

Starting with 4,029 points, SVG would need to average 37-42 points per race in the all-oval round. His best oval points day was at Talladega last fall. SVG was fourth in the second stage and finished 15th – the equivalent of 29 points.

Earning 29 points would be great – but his average would go up to 42-49 points per race. (Maximum points in a race is 61.)

Of course, winning at Talladega would cure everything. At Phoenix, he’d surely be the longshot for the championship.

The Round of 8 would be tough for the Cup rookie and road course ace – but it’s a feat he could build on for the future.

Shane van Gisbergen playoff overview

gfx: Ryan Kemna/TRE

2025 stats:

Four wins

Mexico City, Chicago Street Course, Sonoma, Watkins Glen

Two stage wins

Four top-five finishes and five top-10 finishes

Two poles

Mexico City, Chicago Street Course

246 of 5,746 laps led

21.3 average finish

Three DNFs

Phoenix (crash), Las Vegas (crash), Bristol (suspension issue)

Strengths:

Weaknesses:

Oval Experience and Performance

Unload and Qualifying Speed

Putting a Whole Race Together