Ever since the Indy-Charlotte Double didn’t go to plan for Kyle Larson, Young Money has seemed like old hat — but are looks deceiving?
Photo: Dominic Aragon/TRE
In the last 10 races, Kyle Larson has averaged just 22.4 points per race and a finish of 18.7. He has led just 31 laps and finished top-10 just four times — and top-five in half of those top-10s. In the two races between Charlotte and the recent 10-race stretch, Larson finished eighth at Nashville Superspeedway and fifth at Michigan — but hardly earned any stage points.
Meanwhile, Larson’s teammates have gotten stronger. Chase Elliott turned up the heat on William Byron for the regular season championship until Byron locked it up before the regular season finale. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman has earned the most points in the last 10 races and has mostly rode the tide well to not be caught out like his competitors — such as Chris Buescher — have.
Still, Kyle Larson is Kyle Larson — the man who has made the Championship 4 every other year dating back to his 2021 title.
This year is his time but is Kyle Larson ready to rise with the alarm — or will we be sounding it?
A streak-y clean season for Kyle Larson
Photo: Colby Evans/TRE
When Kyle Larson has been on this season, he has been on. In a seven-week stretch between early-April and early-May, Larson won almost every other race. In race No. 6 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he rose to the occasion when others faltered and won. Three weeks later, he charged ahead to lead 411 of 500 laps at Bristol — and backed it up another three weeks later with a win and 221 of 267 laps at Kansas.
Right around those races were Las Vegas where he led 61 of 267 laps and finished ninth, Texas where he led 90 of 267 laps and finished sixth and Charlotte where he led 34 of the first 41 laps — but crashed out in 37th.
A tough Indianapolis earlier in the day wore heavy on Larson at Charlotte — and beyond. In the 12 races since Charlotte, he has led just 31 laps and slid to fourth in points after leading the points going into Charlotte. He also hasn’t earned any playoff points.
Luckily, Larson entered the summer with 23 playoff points and his points position will likely give him seven more. Plus, his summer performance hasn’t fallen off completely. It’s all encouraging as he heads into the first round with some great tracks for himself:
Round of 16: Darlington, Gateway, Bristol
The Round of 16 has historically been easy for playoff points leaders — like Larson — as long as they don’t have something go wrong.
Round of 12: New Hampshire, Kansas, Charlotte Roval
The Round of 12 sees another strong stretch of races at tracks Larson has won at recently. Then comes the Round of 8.
Round of 8: Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville
How Larson may do in the Round of 8 is contingent on how he starts the playoffs. If he can run well at Darlington and Bristol and get a good finish at Gateway, where Hendrick Motorsports has historically struggled, the momentum will be on his side the rest of the playoffs.
The key to making the Championship 4 is performing at an elite level. Las Vegas is just that for him — as long as he avoids mistakes.
Talladega, again, is a huge variable but Larson has been surprisingly strong there, finishing second and fourth recently, despite otherwise hating superspeedways.
Then, Martinsville is where Larson has finished no worse than sixth in the last six races. An elite Round of 8, like it’s shaping up to be, could get him to Phoenix.
Photo by Dominic Aragon/TRE
At Phoenix, Larson’s biggest challenge is Toyota. Names like Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and even teammate William Byron looked much stronger in the spring.
Still, Larson was there when Hamlin and Bell banged doors at the line — and he could be right there again in November to try and get his second Bill France Cup.
It all goes back to the first round. Momentum is everything and if he can start strong, watch out for Kyle Larson in November.
Kyle Larson overview
2025 Stats
Three wins
Homestead-Miami, Bristol, Kansas
11 top-five finishes, 15 top-10s
One pole
882 of 5,962 laps led
Two DNFs
14.2 average finish
Strengths
Dominant speed
Strong just about everywhere
Elite talent
Weaknesses
Weak summer
Can Larson get the momentum going in the playoffs?
Jonathan Fjeld is the co-owner of the The Racing Experts, LLC. He has been with TRE since 2010.
A Twin Valley, MN, native, Fjeld became a motorsports fan at just three years old (first race was the 2002 Pennsylvania 500). He worked as a contributor and writer for TRE from 2010-18. Since then, he has stepped up and covered 24 NASCAR race weekends and taken on a larger role with TRE. He became the co-owner and managing editor in 2023 and has guided the site to massive growth in that time.
Fjeld has covered a wide array of stories and moments over the years, including Kevin Harvick’s final Cup Series season, the first NASCAR national series disqualification in over 50 years, Shane van Gisbergen’s stunning win in Chicago and the first Cup Series race at Road America in 66 years – as well as up-and-coming drivers’ stories and stories from inside the sport, like the tech it takes for Hendrick Motorsports to remain a top-tier team.
Currently, he resides in Albuquerque, N.M., where he works for KOB 4, an NBC station. He works as a digital producer and does on-air reports. He loves spending time with friends and family, playing and listening to music, exploring new places, being outdoors, reading books and writing among other activities. You can email him at fjeldjonathan@gmail.com