“Now, as we enter the August series expiry week, 25,000–25,200 is likely to act as a major supply zone. On the downside, if we are able to sustain above 24,800, then some consolidation could happen at current levels. So, Nifty may remain in the range of 24,800–25,000 for a few more days. A breakout above 25,000 could then trigger short-covering action. But for the near term, we expect range-bound activity until expiry,” says Rajesh Palviya, Axis Securities.
In the last trading session, Nifty failed to hold on to the 25,000 mark. We had expectations because the week had started on a very positive note with a lot of conviction, but we could not maintain those levels, at least in Friday’s session. What is your view on the indices, strategy-wise, for the coming week and the start of the next session?
Rajesh Palviya: Looking at the structure and the way profit-booking has taken place, especially in today’s session, we are again below the 25,000 level. The market managed to cross 25,000, but major call writing activity did not get covered, despite Nifty crossing that level. Call writers were confident at the 25,000 and 25,100 strikes, which is why we again saw Nifty slip back below 25,000.
Now, as we enter the August series expiry week, 25,000–25,200 is likely to act as a major supply zone. On the downside, if we are able to sustain above 24,800, then some consolidation could happen at current levels. So, Nifty may remain in the range of 24,800–25,000 for a few more days. A breakout above 25,000 could then trigger short-covering action. But for the near term, we expect range-bound activity until expiry.
On the downside, the key support area is at 24,800, which coincides with both the 20-day and 100-day moving averages. This level needs to be watched very closely in the coming week.
For Bank Nifty, we are now trading below the 100-day moving average. We have already broken important support zones of the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and in today’s session, we also slipped below the 100-day moving average. Derivative data too shows short build-up in Bank Nifty. Structurally, Bank Nifty looks weaker. Unless we cross above 55,500, further weakness is possible, with downside levels of 54,800 and even 54,700 likely in the coming week. So, compared to Nifty, Bank Nifty looks a bit weaker, but for Nifty, 24,800 remains the key level to watch.
Live Events
I want your view on the auto and auto ancillary space. The auto sector registered its biggest weekly gain since May 2025. There are a lot of positives here — the expected GST rate cut on two-wheelers will boost sentiment, the festive season outlook is strong, inventory issues could ease with discounts, and falling global uncertainty supports exports. Raw material prices have also been stable. Particularly in autos and auto ancillaries, are there any stocks on your radar?
Rajesh Palviya: Yes, we have witnessed a very strong rally in most auto stocks. The auto index itself was up around 5% week-on-week. Large-cap auto names from both the two-wheeler and four-wheeler space have done well.
From the two-wheeler space, Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto look very promising. Both stocks gave a breakout after long consolidation on daily as well as weekly charts. Bajaj Auto looks strong at current levels, with an upside target of 8,900–9,000 in the coming weeks, while 8,450 should be the stop loss. For Hero MotoCorp, the breakout on the weekly chart suggests the next target is 5,500, with 4,800–4,750 as the stop loss.
In the four-wheeler space, Maruti looks very promising as it has given a breakout on the long-term chart. This stock has the potential to move further, and any minor decline should be used as a buying opportunity. Mahindra & Mahindra and Ashok Leyland are also showing good traction. Ashok Leyland is near its all-time high trajectory, and Mahindra & Mahindra too is around record levels. Overall, most auto stocks are showing strength on both near-term and long-term charts. We believe this sector may continue to extend gains in the coming week, making it attractive for momentum plays.
We would also like your trading ideas for the coming week.
Rajesh Palviya: I have two buy-side ideas.
The first is from the pharma space — Cipla. After three to four months of consolidation, the stock has given a breakout on the weekly chart and is holding strength week-on-week. We expect more upward momentum in the coming week. One can buy Cipla with a target of 1,650 and a stop loss of 1,560.
The second idea is from autos — Maruti. As mentioned earlier, the stock has given a breakout on both monthly and weekly charts, with a clear contracting triangle breakout. Looking at this structure, we believe Maruti can extend its gains. Short covering has already started in this counter, and ahead of expiry we may see another leg of rally. Our projected target is 14,800–15,000, with a stop loss at 14,170. Buy and accumulate would be the strategy here.