The thinktank estimates that if a quarter of non-doms – roughly 10,000 individuals – moved abroad, tax receipts could fall by £4.6bn over the next five years. That figure could rise to nearly £8bn if half of them departed.
The CEBR’s model, based on the approach used by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), also predicted that such a shift could cause the UK to lose between 3,100 and 6,300 jobs, depending on how many wealthy residents choose to relocate.
This potential tax shortfall poses a serious challenge for chancellor Rachel Reeves, who currently has £9.9bn in fiscal headroom. Experts warn that this cushion could be halved or even wiped out by the autumn due to other financial pressures, such as changes to welfare payments and weaker-than-expected economic growth.
Although Labour has stood by its commitment to end the non-dom tax regime, Reeves is now believed to be considering a partial rethink. Specifically, she may drop plans to apply inheritance tax to non-doms’ worldwide assets, following concerns that the proposal could accelerate the departure of wealthy individuals.
“We’re continuing to work with stakeholders to ensure the new system remains competitive on the international stage,” a Treasury spokesperson said, noting the importance of attracting global talent and investment.
Some high-profile figures have already indicated they might leave, including steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal.
Lakshmi Mittal
According to Companies House filings, more than 4,400 directors have stepped down from UK-based firms in the past year, with April departures up 75 per cent compared to the same month in 2024. Most of those exits were from finance, insurance, and property – sectors with high numbers of non-doms.
According to the report, the policy change is triggering an exodus of top earners. The centuries-old non-dom system allowed wealthy foreign residents to shield overseas income from UK taxes for a flat annual fee starting at £30,000. In its place, the government introduced a stricter residence-based scheme.
Now, anyone living in Britain for more than four years must pay income and capital gains tax on global income, with inheritance tax at 40 per cent also looming if they stay longer.
Sam Miley of the CEBR warned that even small economic shifts could have wider implications. “Our findings show the changes would negatively affect the economy, albeit modestly,” he was quoted as saying. “At a time of limited fiscal space, even marginal losses matter.”
Andrew Barclay, who runs the entrepreneur-led group Land of Opportunity, which commissioned the report, said: “It’s increasingly clear that abolishing non-dom status could do real harm to the economy and public finances. There’s still time to stop the outflow.”
A recent Oxford Economics survey of tax advisers found that 60 per cent expect over 40 per cent of their non-dom clients to leave the UK within two years of the changes taking effect.
While the exact number of departures remains unclear, the list of wealthy individuals who have already moved abroad includes billionaire Anne Beaufour, investor Max Gottschalk, and boxing promoter Eddie Hearn, among others.
Meanwhile, Labour faces growing pressure to strike a balance between tax fairness and maintaining the UK’s status as a global hub for wealth and investment.