Griffin Wong details his top A’ja Wilson prop bet for tonight’s Aces-Sky game.
A’ja Wilson’s run of three MVP’s in five seasons is likely to end this season, as the Minnesota Lynx’s Napheesa Collier is a -400 favorite to win the award at DraftKings Sportsbook, well ahead of Wilson (+300). Still, that doesn’t mean that the Las Vegas Aces star has regressed at all.
She’s averaging 23.2 points and 10.2 rebounds per game this season entering tonight’s 8 p.m. ET road contest against the Chicago Sky, as the Aces seek their 11th consecutive victory.
Las Vegas is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 166. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Wilson.
Best A’ja Wilson Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
A’ja Wilson 40+ Points + Rebounds (+135)
With all due respect to Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young, who are having fine seasons in their own right, the Aces’ 10-game winning streak has been a hard Wilson carry job, as her numbers across that span — 27.0 points and 13.1 rebounds per game on 50-40-90 shooting splits, with four 30-point performances in her last five games — are downright mythical. She still has by far the most extreme on-off splits of any player with more than 100 minutes this season, as Las Vegas has been an eye-popping 27.4 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court than off.
Chicago’s defense should be no match for her. The Sky have been by far the league’s worst team since the All-Star break, posting just a 2-12 record and a negative-18.0 net rating across that span, and though All-Star forward Angel Reese’s three-week absence with a back injury didn’t help, Chicago has still had the league’s second-worst defensive rating since her return on August 19. To be fair, the Sky have controlled the glass with or without Reese — six-foot-seven center Kamilla Cardoso has averaged 9.9 boards per game since the All-Star break — but their porous defense should allow Wilson to rack up points regardless. Since the All-Star break, Chicago has allowed the second-most points in the restricted area, where Wilson has made 72.1% of her shots.
The main risk is that the score will be lopsided and Wilson won’t play enough minutes to reach 40 combined points + rebounds. However, that won’t necessarily stop her, given that she’s been the most efficient per-minute scorer and seventh-most efficient per-minute rebounder in basketball this season and has posted easily the league’s highest usage rate across the 10-game win streak. She played just 30 minutes in a 106-87 win over the Dallas Wings on August 17 and recorded 34 points and eight rebounds.