Four of the top 10 quarterbacks in the current odds to win the Heisman Trophy lack experience, having started less than a quarter of a season.

Six of the top 10 quarterbacks in the current odds to win the Heisman Trophy profile as pocket passers, limiting their ability to accumulate the kind of eye-popping statistics that voters have gravitated towards recently.   

Oklahoma junior John Mateer is one of only two among the group who fit in both categories. That helps make the Washington State transfer the best bet on the Heisman board ahead of Week 1, available at as high as 25-to-1 at Boyd Sports.

The other quarterback who fits the above criteria is South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers. But he’s stuck with more team questions around him — headlined by the Gamecocks’ exodus of defensive talent to the NFL — and as low as 14-to-1 to win the award.

The market is mostly beaten into shape after being posted for seven months, but Mateer is one player who hasn’t gotten enough credit. He might not have been a surefire contender on his own but the fact that he’s moved to Oklahoma alongside his offensive coordinator the past two seasons, Ben Arbuckle, elevates his chances for success.

If the Sooners bounce back after losing seasons in two of the past three years, Mateer will be the face the turnaround. That type of narrative also goes a long way in determining the Heisman.

Oklahoma will be favored in its first five games with three of them providing stat-padding opportunities for Mateer considering it plays against Football Championship Subdivision foe Illinois State and Football Bowl Subdivision bottom-feeders Temple and Kent State.

The midpoint of the season brings an opportunity for an early exclamation point for his candidacy — a showdown with current Heisman favorite Arch Manning (5-to-1) for the Red River Rivalry.

Manning would have been a worthwhile bet when he opened as high as 10-to-1, but the action has pushed the unproven sophomore’s odds down too far. Similarly, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier may project as the best passer in the nation but it’s hard to sign off on taking 8-to-1 now when bettors could fire at as high as 12-to-1 earlier in the offseason.

Building a futures portfolio is all about timing so there could be a chance to buy low and add Manning, Nussmeier or others later but, for right now, Mateer checks all the boxes.

Read below for my handicaps of Manning’s and Nussmeier’s big-time Week 1 games. Mateer’s team isn’t included this week as this column picks only all the widely-lined games between FBS opponents. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Las Vegas. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. I went 4-2 (2-2 on plays, 2-0 on leans) in Week 0 including the bonus over/under play, which will be stashed among the spread picks on a weekly basis.

Top Games

Boise State -6.5 at South Florida, over/under: 63. Boise State spent the early part of the summer as a 10-point favorite, which was far too high. The line may have moved too much in South Florida’s direction since then though. Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown has proven he can shoulder the type of points-producing load that Broncos counterpart Maddux Madsen will be asked to carry for the first time this season. Guess: South Florida +6.5.

Nebraska -6.5 vs. Cincinnati in Kansas City, over/under: 53.5. Nebraska has more upside with the potential of a top-tier offense under coordinator Dana Holgorsen and quarterback Dylan Raiola but Cincinnati’s roster might be more complete. The line certainly appears to have steamed a bit too high, but the better way to bet on this game is to play over 53.5 points. Lean: Cincinnati +6.5.

Auburn -1.5 at Baylor, over/under: 57.5. Baylor will need quarterback Sawyer Robertson to work miracles to make up for shortcomings all over the rest of the field. It’s certainly possible — Robertson is one of most underrated players in the nation — but probably more likely that Auburn’s massive advantages in the skill positions with the likes of Eric Singleton and Cam Coleman at receiver win out. Lean: Auburn -1.5.

Texas pick’em at Ohio State, over/under: 48. Texas has gotten all the love in this matchup with Manning Mania striking early, including presumably in a large way at Wynn Las Vegas. The sports book might be the only in the world dealing a pick’em price as opposed to the more widespread Ohio State -2.5. That’s enough of a difference to take a nibble on the Buckeyes, which have the two biggest difference-makers in this game in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs. Play: Ohio State pick’em.

Alabama -13 at Florida State, over/under: 50.5. Quarterback Ty Simpson is a bit of an unknown for the Crimson Tide, but they may not have a single question mark anywhere else on the roster. That’s in direct contrast to the Seminoles, which are largely a mystery as they try to rebound from last year’s disgraceful 2-10 straight-up season. This isn’t a good place to start, and there’s no reason the number shouldn’t be at least Alabama -17. Play: Alabama -13.

LSU +4 at Clemson, over/under: 57.5. Clemson has largely gotten crushed whenever it’s stepped up in competition over the last five years, a 38-24 loss to Texas as 13.5-point underdogs in last year’s College Football Playoff included. That decent showing seems to have sparked some positive perception heading into this season but most of the Tigers’ success in that game came after they fell down three touchdowns. Pass defense in particular is a concern for Clemson, which is a big problem going up against Nussmeier. Play: LSU +4.

Notre Dame -2.5 at Miami, over/under: 49.5. The training-camp reports coming out about Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr were almost unanimously troubling. There’s real question whether he’s ready to step in and lead a team with championship aspirations. The Irish are so strong everywhere else that it might not matter against lesser opponents, but the Hurricanes are one team they won’t be able to push around up front. Consider playing Miami to win outright on the moneyline at +120. Play: Miami +2.5.

TCU -3 at North Carolina, over/under: 56. No one is paying enough attention to TCU. The Horned Frogs were one of the better teams in the nation over the second half of last season, going 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread with the only loss a last-second setback to Baylor. Don’t rule out Bill Belichick’s first season at North Carolina being a success with the favorable schedule ahead, but he doesn’t yet have the pieces to match up with TCU’s passing attack behind quarterback Josh Hoover. Play: TCU -3.

Top Plays

Wyoming -7.5 at Akron, over/under: 49.5. The Cowboys won only one game by this many points a year ago – 31-19 victory against Air Force at War Memorial Stadium where they have one of the nation’s biggest home-field advantages given the elevation. Their offense has been too horrendous to lay this many points against anyone, let alone an Akron team that’s not quite the doormat it once was with coach Joe Moorhead entering his fourth season. Play: Akron +7.5.

Florida Atlantic +15 at Maryland, over/under: 60.5. Few coaching hires this offseason were more inspired than Florida Atlantic’s addition of Zach Kittley, who should have the Owls’ offense humming in no time. Few coaching decisions this offseason were less inspiring than Maryland’s retraining of Mike Locksley, who’s consistently underwhelmed. Play: Florida Atlantic +15.  

Toledo +7.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 48.5. Toledo is set up to have a great, potential championship-winning year in the MAC. Kentucky is set up to have a terrible, potential last-place season in the SEC. But the discrepancy of those two conferences has never been larger, leaving the move from the opening price of Kentucky -10 unjustified. Play: Kentucky -7.5.

Coastal Carolina +12.5 at Virginia, over/under: 58. The Cavaliers spent big in the transfer portal this offseason, but a number of their prized newcomers have gone down with injuries during training camp. The Chanticleers should at least have a formidable offense with veterans like well-traveled quarterback MJ Morris and leading returning receiver Jameson Tucker. Play: Coastal Carolina +12.5.

UTSA +24.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 56.5. UTSA has as much roster continuity as any team in the nation, especially among the Group of Five conferences. So does Texas A&M in fairness, but the Aggies might not have the explosiveness to pull away from a lowkey talented opponent like the Roadrunners. Play: UTSA +24.5.

Utah -6.5 at UCLA, over/under: 52. This is another spread that has moved too much and now merits buyback on the other side after Utah opened as low as a 3-point favorite this offseason. The Utes should be better than last year’s mediocre 5-7 straight-up season but so should the Bruins, which showed real progress down the stretch in coach Deshaun Foster’s first year and now add blue-chip hometown quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Play: UCLA +6.5.  

Other Games

Play: Michigan -34.5 vs. New Mexico

Play: Ball State +17.5 at Purdue

Play: NC State -13.5 vs. East Carolina

Play: Colorado +5 vs. Georgia Tech

Play: Wisconsin -16.5 vs. Miami (Ohio)

Play: Wake Forest -16.5 vs. Kennesaw St.

Lean: Colorado State +22.5 at Washington

Lean: Marshall +40 at Georgia

Lean: Mississippi State -11 at Southern Miss

Lean: Fresno State pick’em vs. Georgia Southern

Lean: Virginia Tech +8 at South Carolina

Lean: Louisiana -11.5 vs. Rice

Lean: Syracuse +14 at Tennessee

Lean: Penn State -44 vs. UNR

Lean: Indiana -22.5 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Central Michigan +12.5 at San Jose State

Lean: UCF -17.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Lean: Northwestern +6 at Tulane

Lean: Arizona -17 vs. Hawaii

Lean: UNLV -10.5 at Sam Houston

Guess: Ole Miss -35.5 vs. Georgia State

Guess: USC -34.5 vs. Missouri State

Guess: Charlotte +7 vs. Appalachian State

Guess: Minnesota -18 vs. Buffalo

Guess: Michigan State -20 vs. Western Michigan

Guess: Rutgers -14.5 vs. Ohio

Guess: Oregon State -1.5 vs. California

Guess: Utah State -6.5 vs. UTEP

Guess: Eastern Michigan +14 at Texas State

Guess: Massachusetts +2.5 vs. Temple