Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Desjardins Securities analysts led by Chris MacCulloch have made changes to their commodity price assumptions – most notably lowering forecasts for natural gas prices – resulting in two rating downgrades and one upgrade in the Canadian energy sector.

The new assumptions were made in conjunction with reviewing second quarter results from producers.

“While acknowledging that our bearish oil price thesis has been slow to materialize, we ultimately expect market conditions to loosen exiting the summer driving season. Since our last update in late July, OPEC+ has communicated another 548 mbbl/d supply hike (for September), which would conclude the return of the initially planned 2.2 mmbbl/d tranche 12 months ahead of schedule, with additional spare productive capacity on tap. However, most forecasters expect the cartel to pause supply hikes this fall, and we would not rule out the potential for a rapid pivot in output policy if Brent prices deteriorate below the US$60/bbl level,” Desjardins said in a note to clients.

“Meanwhile, the geopolitical environment remains volatile as market focus shifts from the Middle East to Ukraine, where there is rising international pressure on the Russian Federation to establish a ceasefire, which would likely be bearish for oil prices. Accordingly, we have maintained our 2025–26 WTI price deck of US$65/bbl and US$55/bbl, respectively, the latter of which is ~12% below the current futures strip. Notably, we have made limited adjustments to our oil and refined product forecast, including Canadian differentials,” it added.

For natural gas, Desjardins has grown more cautious, due to elevated production in both Canada and the U.S., which has diminished the impact on pricing from rising liquified natural gas export capacity.

“Specifically, Lower 48 production has recently flirted with the 110 bcf/d level, which appears poised to result in relatively full US storage caverns entering the winter heating season. Meanwhile, Western Canadian output remains elevated, which has crashed AECO and Station 2 prices, although we see emerging relief from ramping LNG Canada operations. Accordingly, we have slashed our 2025–26 NYMEX price forecast to US$3.50/mcf and US$4.00/mcf (from US$3.75/mcf and US$4.50/mcf), respectively, which was the primary driver of our reduced AECO forecast of C$1.75/mcf and C$3.75/mcf (from C$2.25/mcf and C $4.25/mcf, respectively),“ Desjardins said.

NuVista Energy Ltd. (NVA-T) was downgraded to “hold” from “buy” while the price target was cut to C$17 from C$17.50. The average analyst price target is C$17.50, according to LSEG data.

“Our downgrade is partially commodity price–driven, reflecting our reduced natural gas price forecast, which weighed on 2026 FCF generation relative to peers given the company’s elevated operational torque and reliance on third-party infrastructure. The latter remains a point of increased frustration following recent delays at third-party facilities, which forced temporary production curtailments in 2Q25 that have spilled over into 3Q25. Although NVA is well-positioned to continue executing on its ambitious growth targets, given support from a pristine balance sheet which enables it to direct essentially all free cash flow to share repurchases, we expect relatively modest buybacks on our US$55/bbl WTI and US$4.00/mcf NYMEX 2026 price forecast. Accordingly, we would await a more attractive entry point as we see better opportunities to deploy capital elsewhere in the sector,” Desjardins said.

Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T) was downgraded to “hold” from “buy” with a price target of C$5.75. The average analyst target is C$5.90.

Spartan has been on a tear since June 3, rallying 61% compared with a 7% gain for the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index.

“To be clear, we are highly encouraged by the strong well results the company has delivered in the play to date, which have been complemented by improvements in cost structure, including recent investments in water infrastructure. However, we caution that cash flow generation would be subdued with our US$55/bbl WTI and C$3.75/mcf AECO 2026 price forecast, while remaining cognizant that the Duvernay retains elevated development costs relative to other oil-weighted plays in the WCSB. To put a finer point on it, following our commodity price adjustments, we now calculate a capex-adjusted payout ratio of 138% next year assuming a C$375m capital program, which would nearly exhaust the company’s financial liquidity by year-end 2026, suggesting that SDE would be forced to throttle development activity or seek additional sources of capital. Meanwhile, we expect a positive operational update from the company prior to the upcoming fall conference season, which could lead to further outperformance. Either way, we would await a more attractive entry point as we see better opportunities to deploy capital elsewhere in the sector,” Desjardins said.

More positively, Desjardins upgraded Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T) to “buy” from “hold” while raising its price target to C$12.50 from C$12. The average analyst price target is C$13.17.

Whitecap has returned 17.5% since Desjardins downgraded the stock on June 3, more than double the return of the energy index. “Simply put, we got the call wrong,” Desjardins conceded.

“Following several rounds of positive estimate revisions since early June and the company’s stellar 2Q25 financial results, we have gained better comfort in the resilience of the business model in a softer commodity price environment, including its ability to sustain the C$0.73/share annual dividend. Moreover, we recognize that our model retains some degree of conservatism following the massive 2Q25 cash flow beat, which could support continued outperformance, particularly with respect to the C$210m of identified synergies from the Veren transaction, which we ultimately expect to be lapped. Bottom line, we see a green light to return to the story.”

Overall in the energy sector, Desjardins analysts said they remain biased toward large-cap producers, which offer superior downside protection in a softer commodity price environment. They highlighted Suncor Energy (SU-T), Cenovus Energy (CVE-T) and Topaz Energy (TPZ-T) as top picks.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Irene Nattel has raised her price target on Dollarama Inc (DOL-T) to C$212 from C$207 ahead of fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday. She is maintaining an “outperform” rating.

Ms. Nattel is forecasting second quarter EPS of $1.14, up 12% from a year earlier and a penny better than the consensus.

“Forecasting solid DOL FQ2 results with KPIs toward the high end of F26 guidance, reflecting value-oriented yet resilient consumer spending,” the analyst said in a note to clients. “We are also incorporating preliminary forecasts for Australia (13 days of FQ2) and fine-tuning core Canadian forecast, notably Q4/ F26E and F28E,” which resulted in the higher price target, she said.

“Sector-leading growth trajectory underpinned by visible and sustainable runway in core Canadian market, augmented by accelerating contribution from LatAm, emerging opportunities in Mexico/Australia, and favourable flow of funds all supportive of DOL premium valuation, in our view,” Ms. Nattel said.

The average analyst target is C$204.79.

CIBC analyst Ty Collin upgraded Martinrea International Inc (MRE-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” while raising the target price to C$13 from C$10.50. The average analyst price target is C$12.35.

Mr. Collin, who recently took over coverage of the stock at CIBC, said the bank sees a “more positive setup” for the auto suppliers now that worst-case tariff risks have receded and lower expectations are priced in for the sector.

“In addition, our outperformer rating for MRE reflects its attractive valuation and an improved cash flow profile that provides increased capacity for capital deployment. While we acknowledge that MRE’s small market cap limits ownership from certain investors, we see an attractive risk-reward setup for the stock, with limited downside,” Mr. Collin told clients in a note.

He also sees potential for a resumption in share buybacks in the coming quarters at Martinrea, which could act as an important catalyst.

Meanwhile, he also upgraded the rating to “outperformer” from “neutral” on Linamar Corp (LNR-T) while raising the target price to C$87 from C$77. The average analyst target is C$79.83.

“LNR is our top pick within our auto coverage universe based on its best-in-class balance sheet, leading profitability and cash flow, modest tariff exposure, and growth upside,” Mr. Collin said.

“We believe that worst-case tariff risks for the auto industry have receded, and we see LNR as a fundamentally healthy business well positioned to navigate near-term challenges. Despite a strong rebound in the shares since April, the stock trades at a below-average valuation on earnings estimates that are at or near cyclical lows, and we see significant upside when a true earnings recovery starts to get priced in. We acknowledge the risk that our call may be early, but overall we see an attractive risk-reward setup with limited downside risk,” he said.

Ty Collin has also taken over coverage of Autocanada Inc. (ACQ-T) at CIBC, and he upgraded the rating to “outperformer” from “neutral”. CIBC’s price target went to C$38 from C$32.50. The average analyst target is C$35.16.

Mr. Collin said the operational transformation at Autocanada has exceed expectations, which has led to meaningful improvements in profitability and leverage.

“The business has been simplified, and we believe it is positioned to return to a growth footing in 2026 with a streamlined cost structure and new leadership. We acknowledge that ACQ still faces an uncertain macro environment punctuated by tariffs. However, its modest valuation reflects these risks, in our view, and we believe the company has enough internal levers for earnings growth (i.e., cost improvement, sales initiatives, M&A) to compensate for market-level uncertainties,” Mr. Collin told clients.

Beacon Securities analyst Michael Curran raised his price target on Marimaca Copper Corp. (MARI-T) to C$15 from C$12 following what he called a “robust” feasibility study on the Marimaca Oxide Deposit (MOD) in northern Chile.

The study envisions a conventional open pit and solvent extraction-electrowinning operation that would deliver about 50,000 tons per year of copper cathode production at below average capital costs.

Mr. Curran said many of the major parameters outlined in the feasibility study were in line with his expectations, including low capital expenditures required, grades and recoveries, and certain costs. There were some negatives, however, including sustaining capital required for the project.

Marimaca believes it can complete environmental permitting later this year and be in a position to begin construction at MOD in 2026.

Mr. Curran has a “buy” rating on the stock. The average analyst target is C$10.31.

In other analyst actions:

Groupe Dynamite Inc (GRGD-T): TD Cowen raises target price to C$40 from C$32 and reiterated a “buy” rating. “In advance of Groupe Dynamite’s Q2/F25 results, we are increasing our financial forecast/target multiple. We believe its brand strength is driving outsized SSSG, its real estate optimization is accelerating revenue growth/margin expansion, and that eCommerce revenue is growing with digital initiatives/influencer campaigns. This is complimented by net cash/FCF supporting its NCIB,” TD said.