Uhhh, is this thing on?

The NBA world is quiet, mired in the deep summer with most of the league’s big news already settled. But we have thoughts.

Three of The Athletic’s NBA reporters — Sam Amick, Marcus Thompson II and Fred Katz — got together to discuss the latest on Jonathan Kuminga, the league’s ongoing restricted free-agency saga, which rosters they are most excited to see in the upcoming season and which ones have them most confused.

Here is their conversation:

Katz: With the start of training camp a month away, the NBA is home to two types of news: news that’s already in the past and news that seems like it will never end. Decades from now, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be on the verge of their 14th title, LeBron James will be averaging an efficient 16 points and six assists and, without question, Jonathan Kuminga will still be a free agent.

Kuminga has lingered on the open market for the past two months — and he’s not the only one. Three other significant restricted free agents remain unsigned: the Chicago Bulls’ Josh Giddey, the Philadelphia 76ers’ Quentin Grimes and the Brooklyn Nets’ Cam Thomas. But let’s start on Kuminga, the former lottery pick who has jostled in and out of the Golden State Warriors’ favor and whose free agency appears to be in a stalemate.

Sam, you’re around the Warriors often — and Marcus, you have covered them for years. How do you two see this situation developing?

Amick: If Kuminga’s latest Instagram post is to be believed, he’s doing just fine during this drawn-out and borderline contentious process. The caption below that picture of him working out says it all about his state of mind — “Enjoyment” with a chef’s kiss emoji for good measure. Truth be told, those are the kinds of uber-confident optics a player in his position should be putting into the digital ether right about now.

Kuminga needs the Warriors to believe that he’s truly willing to take the hard road here, picking up that $7.9 million qualifying offer for next season as a way to earn his free-agency freedom next summer rather than accepting the two-year, $45 million offer that he’s been ignoring for months now ($21.75 million first season; second-season team option). And it wouldn’t surprise me at this point if he did.

But as one involved party put it to me earlier this month, the pressure that might prompt either side to change its stance doesn’t actually start rising until mid-September. With the qualifying offer deadline set for Oct. 1, and with training camp starting right before then, that’s when everyone will finally start to get truly antsy here.

The Warriors, who so badly need Kuminga to accept their offer as an avenue to a significant salary slot for trade purposes down the line, will want to know how much money they have left to pay players like Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II, who have been waiting in the (free-agency) wings. The Sacramento Kings, who have been the most serious suitors in sign-and-trade scenarios, have been resisting the urge to make other, smaller moves all summer long because the Kuminga pursuit was a bigger priority. More specifically, the odds of a Russell Westbrook signing go up if they know they’re completely out on Kuminga (though they aren’t expected to make that move unless they can make room in the rotation by trading a guard).

But back to the Warriors’ side of this sensitive situation. Who blinks first here, Marcus?

Thompson: Me. I’ve been blinking nonstop for months now. Hoping to get one of them to flinch.

I have to believe Kuminga blinks first. Because it sounds good to say he’ll sign the qualifying offer, but actually taking $14 million less than the deal on the table seems harder to execute. I know Kuminga to be principled, but that’s a lot of money to pass up on in the name of principle. I understand the reasons why he doesn’t want to take the team-friendly deal. But if you’re getting the short end of the stick either way, you may as well get the $14 million extra on the table.

I understand why Kuminga doesn’t want to do it. If he signs, gets traded and balls out, the team that acquires him would have a team option. That would keep him from entering the open market in 2026, delaying his big payday. Not the best scenario. But $23 million if the team picks up the option is still pretty good. It wouldn’t be incredibly less than what he’d get on the open market.

The Warriors could, however, sweeten the deal to keep Kuminga. More money. Guarantee the second year. They really need that contract. Kuminga is their last significant piece to use to build around the core. Re-signing Kuminga keeps them in the game. That’s why upping the dollar figure doesn’t hurt them too much, even if they don’t think Kuminga is worth that much. If two years for $50 million gets him to sign, that’s better than losing him for nothing.

The interesting element is how the owner of the franchise still wants him. If the hope is for Kuminga to be patient, to bide his time until the Hall of Famers exit, that’s much easier to do if they take care of him at this stage.

Amick: So Kuminga is hardly alone when it comes to this summer of restricted free-agency staring contests. There’s Cam Thomas, who was surely hoping that his best offensive season yet (24 points per game) would lead to a massive payday but is now facing the very real possibility of taking his qualifying offer ($6 million) for the rebuilding Nets. There’s Grimes, the 25-year-old who showed out in 28 games for the Sixers after getting traded from the Dallas Mavericks last season but is getting pinched at the moment because of their payroll situation. (As Fred wrote recently, even his qualifying offer of $8.7 million would push the Sixers into luxury tax territory.) And then there’s Giddey, the Bulls’ guard who was reportedly offered a four-year, $80 million deal at the start of free agency but is pushing for much more (his qualifying offer is $11.1 million).

Decisions remain on contracts for the Bulls’ Josh Giddey, right, and the Nets’ Cam Thomas (Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)

If there’s one thread that connects all of these situations, it’s the massive gap between those respective qualifying offers and what these particular players think they’re worth on the open market. You can blame the rapidly soaring salary cap for that part, as the numbers are truly bonkers these days and players (rightfully) want their piece of this historically great financial pie. Consider this much: The salary cap doubled in the last 10 seasons, after it took 17 seasons to double leading up to that point.

Yet while the cap is now at an all-time high of $154.6 million, that doesn’t matter much if teams don’t have the room to spend in this luxury tax system that is, in essence, a hard cap (at the second apron, anyways). None of these four players landed an offer sheet from a rival team, which means their incumbent squad is negotiating against itself. And while the threat of losing them for nothing a year from now is certainly a significant factor, it’s safe to say the leverage is — by design — on the team side here. So is this an outlier offseason on this front, or some sort of trend? And if you had to pick one player who gets a deal done, who would it be?

Thompson: There is a common element among the players who are trapped in this offseason purgatory: They’re all question marks, at best. So it’s interesting that this problem is being painted as a product of the new CBA rules, when it could just be that these players aren’t excellent enough to force any hands. Kuminga and Giddey, the best of this bunch, are both high-potential players with obvious flaws. It’s not quite clear yet whether they’re very good players or budding superstars. Could the issue in this second apron be a lowered tolerance for risk? The proven, veteran role player — even those who have reached their ceiling — seems to get the value these high-potential, unproven players want.

It seems Giddey would be in the lead to get a deal done. He has well more than Kuminga’s $21.75 million guaranteed on the table. Based on that four-year, $80 million figure, he’d be sacrificing $14 million by taking his QO. Giddey has more to lose. Not to mention, Kuminga’s situation comes with the context of four years of inconsistent minutes. I can see him taking the hard stance.

Katz: It’s not the first time restricted free agency has dragged late into the summer — and if one of these guys took the qualifying offer, it wouldn’t be the first instance of that. Ben Gordon, as you all undoubtedly remember, took the qualifying offer with the Bulls a decade and a half ago. He averaged over 20 points a game in the next season, then signed a gaudy contract with the Detroit Pistons.

The appeal of taking the QO is not actually complicated, by CBA standards: If a player does it, then he’s able to hit the market again the following summer but as an unrestricted free agent. Meanwhile, he gives himself stability. If a team trades a player who is making his qualifying offer, then that player loses his Bird rights, making it more difficult for the team trading for him to re-sign him in the ensuing offseason.

Gordon got his payday, even if he flamed out in Detroit. But the strategy is risky.

Nerlens Noel turned down $70 million from the Mavericks to take the qualifying offer, then settled for a minimum contract the next summer.

Teams have always used restricted free agency to squeeze young players. The difference now is that organizations are more scared than ever of two elements that apply to each member of this aforementioned quartet, as I expanded upon in a series about the foursome from earlier this month:

1. Mid-sized salaries
2. Long-term money

It leaves a team like the Warriors willing to offer Kuminga a contract commensurate with that first fear but which saves them from the second. Or a team like the Nets dangling a short-term offer to Thomas. Or a team like the Sixers playing hardball with Grimes, either to save salary years down the line or a more bloated one now.

But enough of this off-the-court stuff. Teams are making changes for a reason. They want to win.

So, Sam, I ask you this: Which squad that renovated its roster this offseason are you most excited to see in 2025-26?

Amick: The beauty of going first here is that the most obvious answer is still on the board: The Houston Rockets. As our David Aldridge chronicled in his offseason rankings, the Kevin Durant trade alone was enough to put them at the top of the list. But not only did they add one of the greatest scorers of all time, they landed one of the most coveted free agents on the market in Dorian Finney-Smith (while delivering a blow to the Los Angeles Lakers in the process).

So, does that suddenly make the Rockets title favorites? Not at all. The Thunder earned that honor with what they did in June, and they’re not going away anytime soon. But it would not surprise me to see Houston emerge as the top threat to Oklahoma City’s throne.

More specifically, I’m really curious to see how Durant handles this challenge from a chemistry standpoint. If he leans too far into his superpowers, that might take away from players like Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson (and several others) who need to keep growing. There will be some (added) pressure on Ime Udoka, as the coaching staff needs to make the most of all this talent in a collaborative kind of way. In that regard, this is a much different situation than the one Durant entered in 2016 when he joined the Warriors team that already had one title under its belt.

But Durant was an absolute monster back then, one who found a way to add greatly to what the Warriors had while still empowering those around him. What’s more, he was at his defensive best when surrounded by an already elite defense. Sound familiar? Even with Durant being older now, the combination of this Rockets defense (fifth in the league last season) and an offensive upgrade like Durant means the Rockets are going to be a problem for all comers.

Thompson: Denver. The Nuggets won 50 games last season and pushed the eventual champions to seven games. Then they went and bolstered their roster. Swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson makes them better on defense without sacrificing too much on offense. Jonas Valančiūnas gives them a capable backup big. Getting Bruce Brown back to add with Christian Braun, Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson gives the Nuggets some depth to work with. Throw Jalen Pickett in there.

It feels like the new front office leaders, Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer, along with coach David Adelman, understand the assignment. Nikola Jokić is arguably the best player in the world and with a competent roster is a championship threat. The way Aaron Gordon has grown makes this team even more intriguing.

Katz: I will fight through temptations to say the Atlanta Hawks, who have surrounded Trae Young with length, shooting and defense, and answer with a team I believe will finish top three in the East: the Orlando Magic.

There was a point when the Magic were frisky — darn it, maybe even feared — last season, reeling off 16 wins in their first 24 games and beating up offenses like no team outside of Oklahoma City could. But they struggled with injuries: the obvious one to All-Star youngster Paolo Banchero and the less-discussed-but-as-damning one to defensive heartbeat Jalen Suggs. And the historically dreadful 3-point shooting derailed them.

They smoothed out, though didn’t solve, the issue behind the arc with the trade for Desmond Bane, who is one of the world’s most accurate movement shooters and who will initiate more of the attack than he did with the Memphis Grizzlies. Yet, there are four other positions — and Orlando has questionable shooting at all of them.

The Magic are physical. They whack the souls out of their opponents. If you miss ’90s basketball, you should be tuning into the slugfests in Orlando. If they stay healthy, they will win and probably often. The question will be: How does the path to 45 or 50 or 55 wins look?

Is the offense once again in the league’s bottom 10, bogged down with too many errant jumpers? If so, Orlando’s regular-season flash could be brighter than any in April or beyond. Or do Bane’s presence, progression from the young core (Banchero, Suggs and Franz Wagner) and continuity with the rest of the roster change the group enough to turn it into a threat?

Let’s move to the other side of this question: What squad are you the most confused about heading into the season?

Thompson: I am perennially confused by what Chicago is doing. Free Coby White.

But I’ll go with Sacramento. The Kings seem to be aging up while collecting flashy-but-flawed players. Check out this backcourt: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Dennis Schröder, Malik Monk, Keon Ellis, Devin Carter. These are interesting players for a team that’s close. But the Kings aren’t close.

Domantas Sabonis is the only quality big man on the roster, and he’s not a center. Stanford rookie Maxime Raynaud is intriguing, and they will need him. Remember when Keegan Murray was a potential budding star? The Kings keep adding players who only deemphasize him. Which one of those guards is deferring to Murray?

It’s hard to see what the vision is with Sacramento. Which is disappointing because two years ago, it was so much fun when they were on the come-up.

Katz: I’ll answer my own question again.

As with every other year, the 76ers have the widest delta between their best and worst possible outcomes.

Maybe Joel Embiid and Paul George churn out renaissance seasons. The young guards, led by Tyrese Maxey and including Jared McCain and VJ Edgecombe, provide a burst of energy and playmaking. Maybe Grimes returns and shows that his leap at the end of last season was real. Perhaps the Sixers capitalize on a weak conference and finally win a couple of playoff series.

Or maybe none of that happens.

Who knows what to expect from the oft-injured Joel Embiid and Paul George? ( Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)

George and Embiid haven’t shown positive signs of health. McCain is barely old enough to drink. Maxey can’t do it all by himself. If the 2024-25 Sixers proved anything, it’s that this team is capable of losing aplenty. And maybe they will.

Or maybe they’ll be in the middle.

I don’t know. I’m confused.

Amick: The Indiana Pacers. Scratch that: The Eastern Conference defending champion Pacers.

Welp.

So I understand why they didn’t sign Myles Turner — instead watching him pull off the stunner of the summer by landing with the Milwaukee Bucks on a four-year, $120 million deal — but that doesn’t mean I have to like it. When your team pulls off that kind of remarkable run, getting to the NBA Finals for the first time in a quarter century and coming so close to winning the whole thing, the notion of losing a foundational member because of money less than a month later just doesn’t add up.

Even with the profound impact that comes with Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear in Game 7.

The question of whether to pay big for the 29-year-old Turner is definitely a debate, especially considering how poorly he played when it mattered most (10.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game in the finals; 37.7 percent shooting overall and 21.4 percent from long range) and the omnipresent luxury tax implications. But they never would have been there without him, and his value as a stretch five/rim protector is the kind of thing that doesn’t always show up in his stats. As Bucks officials said so many times during Turner’s introductory news conference after they landed him, there just aren’t many players with his kind of skill set (they see him as a younger Brook Lopez, whom they lost to the Los Angeles Clippers). Without him, this already-challenging Pacers time is about to get even tougher.

(Top photo of Jonathan Kuminga and Kevin Durant: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)