The 3.2% year-over-year increase in U.S. inbound container volume for July 2025 represents a temporary reprieve driven entirely by tariff frontloading, according to shipping analyst John McCown. This modest growth masks an impending historic decline in container volumes through the remainder of 2025.
“This is a temporary reprieve and was driven by frontloading to get goods in prior to additional tariffs going into effect in early August,” McCown states in his latest report.
McCown describes the National Retail Federation’s projection of a 5.6% decrease in total inbound volume for 2025 as “a reasonable estimate” for U.S. containerized imports. Given that year-to-date volume is up 3.6% through July, this forecast indicates a dramatic 17.5% decline for the final five months of 2025.
However, McCown warns the coming volume drops could be even more severe: “I anticipate a negative trendline with some months showing more than 17.5% decreases.”
This downturn represents a structural shift in U.S. maritime trade patterns. Unlike previous container volume declines during the financial crisis and pandemic—both of which proved short-lived—the current situation stems from policy decisions with potentially longer-lasting effects.
“The downward turn in 2025 will be due solely to tariffs and unfortunately there is nothing at present that suggests it will be short-lived,” McCown notes. “More than ever, it now looks like significant tariffs will be in place at least during the balance of the current administration.”
Beyond reducing volumes, the USTR ship fee plan targeting Chinese-built or operated vessels is expected to create additional upward pressure on shipping rates. The plan, scheduled to take effect in October, will likely result in “a noticeable withdrawal of overall capacity that will put upward pressure on the shipping rates charged by carriers for loads into and out of the U.S.”
Current spot rate trends seem to confirm this outlook, with Drewry’s World Container Index declining for the 11th consecutive week. The earlier phase of “accelerated purchasing by US retailers, which induced an early peak season, has ended” as they scale back procurement in response to “a decelerating US economy and increased tariff costs.”
“The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain,” Drewry said in its report.
The container shipping industry faces a stark choice between volume losses and inflation effects. McCown describes it as a spectrum: “The more inbound container volume to the U.S. declines, the more commerce and growth will be impacted but the less inflation we will get. The less inbound container volume to the U.S. declines, the more inflation we will get but the less commerce and growth will be impacted.”
With U.S. container volumes historically growing at multiples of GDP, this reversal marks an unprecedented shift in global trade patterns that will widen the gap between U.S. and global container growth rates.
Subscribe for Daily Maritime Insights
Sign up for gCaptain’s newsletter and never miss an update
— trusted by our 108,377 members