Red Wings mailbag: How does Detroit stack up in the Atlantic Division?

It’s officially cottage season in the NHL.

The draft is done. The free agents are (mostly) signed. There’s even a new collective bargaining agreement.

Yes, there’s still the possibility of a trade adding some spark to the summer — and for the Red Wings, that could be of particular importance — but for the most part, business is winding down.

Before unplugging, though, it felt like a good time to open the mailbag.

Note: Questions have been edited for clarity and length

After the NHL Draft and free agency, how do you compare Detroit to the other rebuilding teams in the Atlantic Division? Where do you see them finishing in the division? — Eric J.

Well, it’s Groundhog Day … again.

Answering this question in 2025, though, there are some differences.

Last year, the Ottawa Senators broke through, finally becoming the first of the Atlantic rebuilders to make the playoffs. More surprisingly, they were joined in the postseason by Montreal — a team that was supposed to be at least a couple of years behind the Senators, Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres in the building process. Meanwhile, Boston — a longtime playoff staple — finally slipped up, due in part to injuries, and actually finished last in the division.

Even after all that, it feels as if the 2025-26 season will once again be defined by how Detroit compares to these same few teams within the division.

By now, you know what the Red Wings did this summer. Here’s what’s fundamentally changed around them:

• The Maple Leafs lost Mitch Marner and added forwards Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy
• The Canadiens traded for Noah Dobson and Zack Bolduc, and should have Calder Trophy candidate Ivan Demidov full-time
• The Bruins traded for scoring winger Viktor Arvidsson and should get key pieces back from injury
• The Senators added some depth with Lars Eller and Jordan Spence
• Buffalo added a potential top-four RHD in Michael Kesselring, and got tougher with winger Josh Doan, but lost scoring winger JJ Peterka in the process

With Florida and Tampa both still excellent teams atop the division, it’s shaping up to be quite the battle behind them.

Even without Marner, the Maple Leafs still should have the inside track to the third divisional spot — they’re deep down the middle and have star goal scorers in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, plus a steady top four on the blue line — though they do suddenly look much more vulnerable if injury strikes.

Ottawa’s big step last year looked legit, sparked by a big goaltending addition in Linus Ullmark and bolstered when it added Dylan Cozens at the trade deadline. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Senators finish third in the division ahead of Toronto, especially after seeing them push the Leafs in the playoffs. I might like their top nine the best of this bunch.

Montreal certainly appears to have netted the most new talent of the bunch, with Dobson an excellent top-pair level defenseman and Bolduc and Demidov both legit top-nine additions. That said, the Canadiens’ 2024-25 run was crying out for regression. They gave up more expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five than any NHL team except the Sharks or Ducks. That’s concerning, to say the least. However, by adding those three exciting young players, it’s at least plausible that they continue to outscore those issues next season.

To make the playoffs, then, Detroit has to finish ahead of at least one of those three teams — and hold off both the Bruins (who stand to get star defenders Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm back from injuries) and the Sabres (who have lots of young talent), plus teams such as the Rangers and Blue Jackets in the Metro. It’s a tall task.

The Red Wings’ path to beating out those teams likely depends on two big factors: how much improvement they get from their young players and how big an upgrade John Gibson turns out to be in goal. Detroit needs him to be a differentiator as the biggest addition they made this summer.

If Gibson can replicate his 2024-25 numbers, but in a 50-game workload, and the Red Wings get steps forward from players such as Marco Kasper, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson and perhaps a surprise rookie (Nate Danielson? Carter Mazur?), they’ll at least give themselves a chance. And that could happen. Detroit hasn’t been that far outside the playoffs the last two seasons.

However, because of how many “ifs” are required, I think it’s more likely Detroit once again finishes sixth in the division.

What is more likely: the Red Wings trade for a top-six forward or a top-four defenseman? Or do you suspect no move is to be made? — Conner L.

If we’re talking likeliest outcomes, I’d have to go with Detroit not making another move. I just don’t see that many obvious fits out there.

Between the two options you laid out, I guess I’d land on a defenseman, simply because that’s the bigger need. The top-line left-wing spot is a hole, but one for which Detroit can probably find satisfactory short-term answers throughout the season.

On defense, though, they currently have little choice but to bank on Johansson being ready to play a top-four role all season. And hey, maybe he is. He earned a lot of trust from the coaches last season and should only improve from where he was as a rookie. For 82 games, though, that’s still a question mark.

The issue is: Where do you find a real upgrade? Maybe you can pry a defenseman out of crowded New Jersey, but I don’t think that will come cheap. Any Rasmus Andersson conversation has to start with whether he’d be interested in extending, since Detroit isn’t in the business of trading first-round picks for rentals.

I know many fans are interested in Erik Karlsson from the Penguins, and I can certainly see the argument there. Karlsson would add some important puck-moving to Detroit’s back end, can handle the top-four workload, and could even mentor Axel Sandin Pellikka over the next two years.

The flip side is the contract, which pays him $10 million for those two seasons while on the decline at 35 years old. Karlsson still gets his points, to be sure, but he gives plenty back the other way. He also doesn’t make the Red Wings any more physically imposing, nor does he improve their league-worst penalty kill.

If the acquisition cost is low enough, it could be a worthwhile gamble to try to end this playoff drought. However, it’s not a very exciting market.

Kyle Connor’s hometown is Shelby Township, Michigan. (Sam Hodde / Getty Images)

Let’s say Kyle Connor wants to come home and makes it clear he’s only coming here after this year (not everyone is Alex DeBrincat, I know, but we can dream). Do we give up assets now to get him like we did with “Cat” and get one more year of his prime or just wait til next year? And what would the Jets ask for? — Ian W.

I’m going to half-answer this question, because I just don’t think it’s realistic to believe there’s only one place Connor would be willing to play.

So I’m going to re-frame it to a more realistic one: “If Connor is interested in playing in Detroit, how should the Red Wings proceed?”

As much as you’d prefer to wait until free agency and keep the assets, the last year has made clear how that approach can backfire.

Mikko Rantanen got traded twice in-season, and still ended up signing an eight-year deal in Dallas at the end of it. Marner rode the season out in Toronto and appeared headed to market … right up until he was dealt in a sign-and-trade with Vegas. Brad Marchand was traded from Boston as a rental, only to win a Cup in Florida and extend for six years there at age 37.

The lesson: You simply can’t count on anyone actually making it to July 1 anymore.

So, if the Red Wings find out Connor has an interest in playing (and extending) in Detroit, they can’t really afford to get cute. They’d have to get serious about adding a player who has twice scored 40 goals and put up more than 90 points.

As for what Winnipeg would want, you’d have to think any ask would start with Nate Danielson, a young, top-10-pick center who is close to NHL-ready. Seeing what Rantanen netted for Carolina, the Jets will probably also want a first-round pick.

It’d be a painful deal to make, in terms of the futures required. I’m not sure whether it would be the right move or not, but recent history says most of these top players won’t actually make it to market. So if (and remember, this is a hypothetical here) Connor comes available and the Red Wings want him, they’d probably have to jump the line in order to get him.

Waiting feels like a surefire way to miss out on the player.

With the cap expected to positively explode over the next 2-plus years, is this year’s free agency a portent of things to come? The Haves resign their players and roll it back, while the Have Nots (our Wings) are only able to sign scraps? How does this affect Steve Yzerman’s plan of building through the draft? — Jeffrey W.

It sure looks that way to me.

Right now, there are 13 teams with at least $10 million in unused cap space, according to PuckPedia. And it’s not just rebuilders who are looking to stay cost-effective in their lean years. There are playoff teams and playoff hopefuls in that group — even the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Jets.

In other words, thanks to the rising cap, most teams will have the space to keep their stars when their current deals expire. That doesn’t mean some players won’t shake loose for other reasons (like Marner leaving Toronto), but even then, the most desirable markets now have the space to snap up those players, too. So I certainly wouldn’t count on getting a star in free agency.

That does make the Red Wings’ commitment to building through the draft more important. They look like they’ll be a deep team in the near future, though, and the rising cap should at least allow them to keep that depth together.

The issue, though, is that the Red Wings still need to find a way to add some star power, and free agency looks less and less like a viable avenue to doing so. That means they’ll likely either need the draft-and-develop approach to produce a star who outperforms expectations or use their prospect capital to trade for one.

The Red Wings’ farm system is good and should have enough to help make this a playoff team soon. To be a true contender, though, they’re going to need more than just time.

How unattractive is Detroit for free agents now? Does the perception of Yzerman’s GM skills drive free agents away? How much does the playoffs-missed streak factor in? The team as presently composed? — Roderick K.

It’s hard to quantify “how unattractive” or to apportion exact weight to all the factors, but I’d just lay it out like this.

Every player has different priorities, but the big, common ones seem to be winning, making money, living in warm climates and/or big cities, and playing close to home.

The Red Wings have certainly gotten some players, such as Copp and DeBrincat, through the hometown factor, and it’s possible they get a couple more in the years to come. But in a rising-cap world, making money is possible everywhere, and Detroit is neither a warm climate nor a splashy city (though, as someone who lives here, I do think there’s a lot more to do here than people realize).

That means if the Red Wings want to appeal to more players, they have to show they can win.

Don’t get me wrong, the Red Wings do have other things going for them. Detroit is a great, history-rich hockey market. The Little Caesars Arena facilities are top-notch. However, without winning, they’re going to be fighting uphill just to make that pitch to free agents.

There may be some players who only want to go to warm weather, no-tax states, if all else is equal, but the Red Wings’ biggest problem right now is that all else isn’t equal. They aren’t winning, and haven’t won for a long time now. That will put them at a disadvantage until they can prove otherwise.

(Top photo of Matthew Knies and Simon Edvinsson: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)