Week 1 is here, and welcome to my weekly DST rankings! I’ve been running a version of this column for five years now, and it has won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Series twice, so I hope I can continue providing you with informative and helpful content. I utilize my research/articles for my own weekly DST streams and waiver adds, so we’re truly in this together. I promise to continue pushing myself to ensure the information below remains useful.

We’ve spent months during this NFL offseason evaluating and analyzing, but truth be told, we were mostly guessing. We assumed which teams would be good and who would have which roles on their teams, but now we get to see these teams in action. When it comes to defenses, that means we get to finally see who has schemes that could generate consistent pressure and which players put in the work over the offseason to take their game to another level. We also get to see which offenses we truly want to attack when choosing our defenses.

What you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula:

((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 1.5) + TACKLES FOR A LOSS/NO GAIN PER GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED PER PLAY + OPPONENT SCORING RATE)

I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

2025 DST WEEK 1 RANKINGS

Rank

Tier One DSTs

Opponent

1Denver Broncosvs TEN2Pittsburgh Steelersat NYJ3Minnesota Vikingsat CHI

Denver was the top-ranked defense last year, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game, so it’s no surprise they’re at the top of this list too. Last year, they ranked 1st in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 1st in EPA Per Play, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in turnover rate. They will also play a Titans offense that has a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward and will be without Tyjae Spears, who was placed on IR. Even though I like Ward, a rookie QB going on the road into Denver in their first NFL start is an extremely tall order, and so I think Denver is one of the safer defenses available this week and potentially all season.

Last year, Pittsburgh was the 4th-ranked defense and finished 4th in turnover rate, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, 9th in EPA per play allowed, and had the 4th-fewest missed tackles per game. They open up the season against a Jets offense that will be starting Justin Fields at quarterback and doesn’t have many proven options in the passing game other than Garrett Wilson. We like Fields for fantasy because of his rushing upside, but this is an offense that is going to want to run and then run and then run some more. I just don’t see them as an explosive offense, and Fields has historically made some bad decisions when he’s forced to throw the ball often, so I like the Steelers in this spot.

We rode the Minnesota defense for most of last season. They finished 2nd in fantasy points per game and were ranked 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 2nd in turnover rate, 3rd in EPA allowed per play, and had the 6th-fewest missed tackles per game. I know we expect the Bears’ offense to take off because Ben Johnson is in town, but I don’t love their running back situation, and it’s no lock that this offense will hit the ground running immediately. The Bears have a good offensive line, so that could neutralize this Vikings pass rush, but I think there are some talented pieces in this secondary too, and I’m not yet sure just how good Caleb Williams will be. At this point, I’m gonna trust the talent of the Vikings defense.

Rank

Tier Two DSTs

Opponent

4Philadelphia Eaglesvs DAL5Cincinnati Bengalsat CLE6Houston Texansat LAR7Arizona Cardinalsat NO8Washington Commandersvs NYG9Seattle Seahawksat SF

The Eagles got a lot of their fantasy value from big plays and touchdowns last season, and we need to acknowledge that type of production is not always repeatable every season. However, they also finished as the 7th-ranked defense on the season, ranking 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 2nd in EPA allowed per play, and 5th in turnover rate. They get a Week 1 matchup against a Cowboys offense that has a below-average offensive line (23rd in PFF’s rankings), and a fairly mediocre running game with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders leading the way, with Jaydon Blue dealing with an ankle injury. We know CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are talented, but this Eagles pass rush could prevent Dak Prescott from having any time to hit big plays down the field to either receiver.

The Bengals’ defense was brutal last year, but now Trey Hendrickson has been re-signed and will play on the same line as Shemar Stewart, which should be a big help. A matchup against the Browns in Week 1 is also super enticing. PFF ranked the Browns as the 27th-best offensive line in football, and they will start immobile Joe Flacco under center to begin the season. Quinshon Judkins’ contract and legal situations mean Jerome Ford or Dylan Sampson will be the starting running backs behind that poor offensive line, and all of the wide receivers behind Jerry Jeudy have not proven to be consistent producers during their NFL careers. This is a risky pick, but I like Cincinnati this week.

Houston finished last season as the 5th-ranked defense, ranking 5th in EPA allowed per play, 6th in turnover rate, and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate. They’ll hope to get a fully healthy season from Will Anderson and brought in Darrell Taylor to add pass-rush chops to the defense. They’re also going to face a Rams offense that is going to have the frozen back version of Matthew Stafford under center. Stafford is not going to be mobile at all, not that he was before, and one bad hit could bring in Jimmy Garoppolo under center. In general, I like a defense playing a backup quarterback, and there’s certainly a chance we see that here.

The Cardinals finished as the 18th-ranked defense last year, but I like a lot of their young high draft picks, like Walter Nolen III, Will Johnson, and Darius Robinson, who played just six games last year. I think this could be an improved unit in 2025 with additions of Dalvin Tomlinson, Josh Sweat, and more. However, the main reason they are ranked this high is that they play a Saints offense that will start Spencer Rattler and his 57% completion rate under center. This Saints offense may be one of the worst in football, so I’m OK targeting that matchup with this Cardinals defense.

I know it’s hard to trust the Commanders’ defense, but there are some talented pieces here with Bobby Wagner, Von Miller, Mike Sainristil, and Jonathan Jones. If they can also get a bounce-back season from Marson Lattimore, this could be a good secondary. They are going up against a Giants offense that has one of the worst offensive lines in football (apart from Andrew Thomas) and will start a past-his-prime Russell Wilson at quarterback with limited receiving options apart from Malik Nabers. I’m OK with this gamble in most formats.

Seattle finished 6th in fantasy points per game last season, which is not entirely surprising when they hired a defensive-minded coach in Mike Macdonald. Their defense ranked 4th in Pass Rush Productivity rate, 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 9th in Expected Points Added (EPA) Per Play. They struggled against the run, which is a bit of a concern against Christian McCaffrey, but I think this pass rush, now with DeMarcus Lawrence in the fold, should make life hard on Brock Purdy, who also has basically no healthy receivers to throw to. As it stands right now, the top two wide receivers who could be active in Week 1 for the 49ers are Ricky Pearsall and Skyy Moore, or maybe Russell Gage. That would be one of the worst three-man receiving groups in the NFL, so I’m OK with taking the Seahawks as a back-end top 10 unit.

RankTier Three DSTsOpponent10New York Jetsvs PIT11Los Angeles Ramsvs HOU12Chicago Bearsvs MIN13Tampa Bay Bucsat ATL14Kansas City Chiefsat LAC15Detroit Lionsat GB16Green Bay Packersvs DET17Miami Dolphinsat IND

The Jets’ defense was a mess for fantasy last season, but I think that Jets team kind of quit mid-way through the year. I expect them to come out a little more motivated to start the season, and there are plenty of talented players on that side of the ball. They’ll get to match up against their old quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who I think is well past his prime. The Steelers also have a receiving corps that’s DK Metcalf and then, I guess, Calvin Austin. This isn’t really an offense that strikes fear in my heart.

I was a big fan of the Rams’ pass-rush last year. They were 7th in Pass Rush Productivity rate and have plenty of talent with Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, and Braden Fiske. I expect more sacks in 2025, especially against a Texans offense in Week 1 that has PFF’s worst-ranked offensive line heading into 2025. The Texans’ line was brutal last year and might be even worse this year. With Joe Mixon on the PUP list with a foot injury and still out, this Rams defensive front may put a lot of pressure on C.J. Stroud and rack up their fair share of sacks.

The Bears’ biggest addition may have been hiring Dennis Allen to run their defense. He was not a good head coach in New Orleans, but he has always been a solid defensive coordinator, so I’m intrigued by what he can do with this Bears defense. Against another opponent, I might have the Bears ranked higher, but I have confidence in J.J. McCarthy, and the Vikings have enough pass-catchers to make up for the suspension of Jordan Addison. Plus, I like their running back duo. That makes the Bears just a fringey option for me.

The Bucs are a solid defensive unit overall and get a decent but not great matchup against the Falcons. We expect this Falcons offense to be better this year with Michael Penix Jr. under center, but Darnell Mooney being out hurts this passing attack, and they also just lost starting right tackle Kaleb McGary for the season. Those are not insignificant losses, and are ones I think make the Bucs a bit more attractive in this matchup.

My fantasy model is intrigued by the Chiefs this season after they finished 11th in Pass Rush Productivity rate, 12th in opponents’ scoring rate, and had the third-fewest missed tackles per game of any team in football. However, they don’t get a great matchup against a solid Chargers offense that should be very run-heavy. That should limit opportunities for sacks, and the Chargers have enough talented players on the offense side of the ball that I think the Chiefs are just a deep-league play this week.

Green Bay and Detroit are two defenses I like this year. I had Green Bay as my 6th-ranked defense in my pre-season rankings, and Detroit right behind them at 7th.

The Dolphins’ front seven still has some solid pieces on it, but their secondary is such a mess that they signed Rasul Douglas this week, and he might immediately be a starter for them. The problem with that for me is that the main weakness for the Colts is that Daniel Jones is under center. If the Dolphins don’t have the secondary to take advantage of that, then that means they will need to score defensive points through sacks, which will be hard to come by, or limiting points. I just don’t see this as a high upside spot this week.

RankTier Four DSTsOpponent18New England Patriotsvs LV19New Orleans Saintsvs ARI20Indianapolis Coltsvs MIN21Buffalo Billsvs BAL22Las Vegas Raidersat NE23San Francisco 49ersvs SEA24New York Giantsat WAS25Baltimore Ravensat BUF26Los Angeles Chargersvs KC

Back in the Bill Belichick years, the Patriots always had one of the best defenses in football. Last year, they finished 31st in fantasy points per game. By all accounts, we should avoid them, but they now have Mike Vrabel leading the way and should have Christian Barmore healthy, Robert Spillane in the fold, and Carlton Davis added to the secondary. I don’t think they’ll have a great defense, but I think they’ll be an improved one, and I think this Raiders offense will be really bad. They have Geno Smith under center and Ashton Jeanty at running back, but little else in the way of dynamic talent. When you add to that a slightly below-average offensive line, I think you get an offense that we want to target in fantasy leagues.

I have both the Bills and Ravens inside my top 10 defenses for the season. However, I don’t want to play either defense when they’re facing each other if I don’t have to.

A defense I’m fading for this week is the San Francisco 49ers. Consensus has them 9th, and I have them down at 22nd. I know the 49ers dealt with plenty of injuries last year and should be better this season, but I just don’t love this matchup. The Seahawks made some upgrades to their offensive line in the offseason and made big upgrades to their offensive coaching staff. There is a lot of talent on that offense, and I don’t think Sam Darnold is a downgrade on Geno Smith at all. This doesn’t feel like an offense that I want to attack in Week 1, especially since San Francisco has so many injuries on offense that could put their defense in some bad field positions in this one.

I think the Giants’ defense is underrated. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Darius Alexander, and Abdul Carter are just a stupidly good defensive line group. This is just a bad matchup.

Maybe I should have the Chargers higher with Rashee Rice out, but it’s just really hard to pick on this Chiefs’ offense.

RankTier Five DSTsOpponent27Jacksonville Jaguarsvs CAR28Tennessee Titansat DEN29Cleveland Brownsvs CIN30Carolina Panthersat JAX31Dallas Cowboysat PHI32Atlanta Falconsvs TB

Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.