Mainers’ economic outlooks vary based on their political affiliation, but only about 19% overall believe their households are better off than a year ago, according to a University of New Hampshire survey that also indicates Republicans are split on some economic issues while Democrats are more aligned.
Regardless of political party, the majority of the 840 Maine residents who participated in the UNH Survey Center’s August Pine Tree State Poll agree that the prices of everyday goods are higher than they were a year ago.
Most Democrats surveyed expect prices to continue to climb, while most Republicans expect prices to flatten out or fall. Additionally, a vast majority of Democrats expect to be worse off financially a year from now, while a slim majority of Republicans believe they will be better off.
Of the 840 respondents, 44% said they align most with Democrats, 38% with Republicans and 19% with independents. Fifty-one percent said they voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, while 45% said they voted for Donald Trump.
That mirrors the results of the election, where 52.4% of Mainers’ votes went to Harris and 45.5% to Trump.
The roughly 2,600 members of the Pine Tree State panel were invited to complete the survey online Aug. 14-18. The 840 respondents represent a 41% response rate. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.4%.
PRICES
When it comes to the prices of everyday goods, 78% of respondents agree that they have increased in the past 12 months — including 97% of Democrats, 81% of independents and 52% of Republicans.
About 71% of respondents — including 99% of Democrats and 78% of independents — think prices will climb in the next year, while 14% expect them to stay the same and 13% believe they will fall.
“Republicans are divided,” the survey report states, “with 34% expecting higher prices and 30% expecting lower prices.”
Another 33% of Republicans predict prices will remain about the same a year from now.
Tariffs were the most prevalent reason behind respondents’ predictions. About 61% of those who expect prices to increase said tariffs are a factor in their belief, while 37% of those expecting a decrease cite tariffs.
Other prevalent reasons for those who expect a decline in prices were good economic stewardship (20%), lower interest rates (17%) and lower energy prices (8%). Other reasons cited for people expecting price increases include poor economic stewardship (11%) and general inflation (7%).
Overall, the majority of respondents (53%), regardless of political party, believe the economy is getting worse, while just 38% of Mainers feel the economy is getting better.
However, when broken down by party, only 6% of Republicans surveyed feel the economy is getting worse compared to 90% of Democrats and 54% of independents. The vast majority of Republicans (80%) believe the economy is getting better, but only 32% of independents and 5% of Democrats agree.
PERSONAL FINANCE
While only 19% of the respondents said their household is better off financially than a year ago, 44% think their finances are about the same but 37% believe they are worse off. Roughly 54% of independents, 42% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans say they are worse off.
The survey also looked at whom respondents voted for in 2024.
About 45% of Trump voters and 44% of Harris voters say they are doing about the same financially as they were a year ago. However, 27% of Trump voters said they are doing better, compared to 12% of Harris voters. Meanwhile, 44% of Harris voters said they are worse off than they were this time last year, compared to 28% of Trump voters.
Answers also varied by household income.
While 44% of all respondents said their financial condition is about the same as it was a year ago, 62% of those with an annual household income of $100,000 or greater feel they are better off than a year ago, but just 40% of households making less than $100,000 feel the same.
Only 4% of households making $45,000 to $75,000 annually feel as though they are better off. Just under half (49%) of people in that income bracket say they are worse off than a year ago, and 47% say they are doing about the same.
Looking ahead, 45% of respondents — including 74% of Democrats and 48% of independents — believe they will be worse off financially a year from now. Just 27% — but the majority (59%) of Republicans — expect they will be better off.
Whether respondents are optimistic or pessimistic about their economic futures is also heavily rooted in who they voted for, according to the survey results.
More than half of Trump voters (55%) expect to be better off in a year, while only 4% of Harris voters feel the same. The vast majority of Harris voters (70%) say they will be worse off in a year, compared to just 17% of Trump voters.
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