The conversation about innovation today tends to revolve around data centers, silicon and power cables. Dirt, roots, seed and tractors, the backbone of the first economy in the United States, agriculture, rarely take center stage.

Yet in 2025, farming has emerged as one of the most consequential industries under pressure. Commodity markets are sinking, costs remain high, and the geopolitical forces shaping exports have left farmers facing a tough year.

“Farmers continue to grow more crop every year because they’re so darn good at what they do,” Bushel® CEO Jake Joraanstad told PYMNTS CEO Karen Webster. “We’re going to have a record crop in soybeans and corn, probably both, which is amazing. But again, the more crop in supply, the lower the demand is. There’s a point where farmers can’t even make money at the price available to them right now.”

Global trade dynamics are compounding the strain. Exports remain a critical outlet for U.S. grain, yet geopolitical uncertainty continues to haunt farmers.

What about tariffs?

“This spring, exports of grain just weren’t happening because nobody knew where we were going to land on tariffs and everything else,” Joraanstad said, adding that although there are glimmers of optimism around negotiations with China and new agreements with Canada, uncertainty looms.

For farmers with crops ready to move, political limbo can translate directly into cash flow risk.

The Cost-Price Squeeze Impacting Agriculture

At the heart of the agribusiness crisis lies a familiar but intensified problem: rising input costs against falling crop prices. Inflation has steadily driven up the cost of seeds, fertilizer and fuel. Meanwhile, global commodity prices for staples like corn and soybeans have fallen since their pandemic-era highs.

“A lot of our customers are reliant on the commodities markets,” Joraanstad said. “So, corn and soybeans and fertilizer prices and seed costs and all of those components of it. And fuel even is a big factor, right? Costs have increased. The price for what you are growing has decreased.”

This double squeeze has left farmers in a precarious position. Even as they produce more, they earn less. Agribusinesses that support them, such as co-ops, elevators and retailers, are also reeling.

For consumers, the ripple effects are complex. Lower commodity prices can help offset inflation in the grocery aisle, particularly in meat and poultry.

“If you’re a processor of chickens or cattle, your cost to feed the animal is driven by the commodities market,” Joraanstad said. “When the commodity market’s down, now the cattle, it’s cheaper to feed. And hopefully that’s fighting some of the inflationary pressure.”

If farmers are to regain footing, policy could play a decisive role. One bright spot comes from potential renewable fuel mandates. Such mandates could create a new floor of demand for key crops, insulating farmers from the volatility of global trade. But political will remains uncertain.

“If we can get 15% ethanol requirements instead of 10% in our fuel across the whole country, corn prices will be back to a reasonable place,” Joraanstad said. “And if we can produce more renewable soybean oil, which is how we make the next renewable diesel, that would also create demand in the soybean space.”

Financing the Future

As 2026 approaches, farmers face the structural challenge of financing.

“The problem is, of course, our interest rates are high still,” Joraanstad said. “In farming, you’re talking 7% to 10% interest on loans, maybe higher. That’s tough. Not only do your costs of buying the input go up, but your interest rates [are] three times higher to afford to buy it.”

This creates cascading uncertainty. Farmers must make purchase decisions this fall for next year’s crop, without knowing what demand or prices will look like. Ironically, 2025 farm incomes may end up higher than expected, not because of market conditions but thanks to government intervention.

“It’s predicted right now that although crop prices are low and costs are high, net income from farmers this year will actually be somewhat up,” Joraanstad said. “But the caveat is government payments and subsidies are coming.”

As CEO of Bushel, Joraanstad has a unique vantage point. His company runs a platform connecting farmers, buyers and co-ops, digitizing the transactions and logistics that underpin the grain economy. With its footprint across much of the U.S. supply chain, Bushel sees real-time data that others can only guess.

“We have our tool we call Bushel Farm, where [farmers] can see their whole position, know what they sold, what they’re expecting for yields, how much rain they’ve gotten,” Joraanstad said. “We’re working on some AI tools where they’ll be more proactive in helping think about these things, at least getting answers without having to ask.”

The company has also moved into financial services, launching a high interest checking account for farmers. Even marginal gains on cash flow can mean survival.

As the conversation wrapped up, Webster asked what ordinary consumers could do to help.

“Keep buying protein products from agriculture,” Joraanstad said. “Eat more beef, eat more chicken. Order a big turkey for Thanksgiving. Try to buy American products… And when you’re at the gas station, put the E10 — the 10% ethanol — in. That’s good for the corn farmer.”