Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange that allows users to trade event contracts on outcomes like sports results. On Saturday, August 30, 2025 (the eve of the full US college football season kickoff), Kalshi recorded $87 million in trading volume, marking its highest single-day figure since the surge during the 2024 US presidential election.
Sports markets dominated, accounting for nearly $85 million (about 96%) of the total. College football specifically drove $62.6 million (roughly 72%), with three high-profile Week 0 games—Clemson vs. LSU, Florida State vs. Auburn, and Ohio State vs. Texas—responsible for almost half of that sports volume.
This builds on Kalshi’s expanding football offerings. The platform recently self-certified with the CFTC to introduce point spreads, totals (over/unders), and limited touchdown props for both NFL and NCAA games, which went live ahead of the season.
Prior to this, markets were mostly limited to moneylines and futures like national championships. Cumulative volume on college football game outcomes has already reached $152 million year-to-date. During the 2024 presidential election, Kalshi saw massive spikes in political event contracts, peaking at similar or higher daily levels due to real-time trading on outcomes like winner probabilities.
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The $87 million football day is the first to match that intensity since then, signaling strong demand for sports as a core product line. For perspective, Kalshi’s overall sports volume hit $2 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, though this metric (total traded value, including buys and sells) differs from traditional sportsbooks’ “handle” (wagered amounts), which would equate to roughly half or less here.
Kalshi’s growth comes amid legal challenges from states like Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey, which argue these markets resemble illegal sports betting. However, federal courts have largely sided with Kalshi so far, affirming CFTC oversight and allowing operations to continue nationwide (for users 18+).
Partnerships like with Robinhood have boosted accessibility, with football markets now integrated into its app’s Predictions Hub. This surge underscores prediction markets’ rising popularity as an alternative to state-regulated sportsbooks, especially in non-legal betting states (about 40% of the US population).
As the season progresses, expect even higher volumes with full integration of props and more games—Kalshi’s CEO noted “huge consumer demand” for these expansions. If you’re interested in trading on Kalshi, it’s available at kalshi.com, but note the platform’s fees (around 3.5% per trade) and restrictions (e.g., no participation from players, coaches, or affiliates).
The record volume, rivaling presidential election activity, signals strong user interest in event contracts as an alternative to traditional sports betting. This suggests prediction markets are gaining traction, especially in states where sports betting is restricted, tapping into a large untapped market (roughly 40% of the US population).
With college football driving $62.6 million (72% of the day’s volume), sports markets are cementing as Kalshi’s backbone alongside political contracts. The recent addition of point spreads, totals, and props likely fueled this surge, indicating user demand for diverse, granular betting options.
Despite legal pushback from states like Maryland and Nevada claiming Kalshi’s markets mimic illegal gambling, federal court rulings favoring CFTC oversight bolster its legitimacy. This could encourage further expansion but also intensify state-level resistance, potentially shaping future regulation.
Partnerships like Robinhood’s integration and Kalshi’s ability to self-certify new markets (e.g., NFL and NCAA props) point to scalability. Higher volumes may attract more institutional players or retail investors, but fees (3.5% per trade) and restrictions (e.g., barring athletes or affiliates) could limit broader adoption.
The surge reflects a cultural shift toward real-time, data-driven speculation on sports outcomes, potentially rivaling traditional sportsbooks. It also highlights Kalshi’s role in monetizing public sentiment, with implications for how fans engage with sports and how markets predict real-world events.
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