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After wading through a muddled NFC, where eight NFL team executives cast votes for five teams in the top three spots, we find clarity atop the AFC.
The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs were the only teams commanding top-three votes from the eight execs. But there was still a lot to debate regarding the proper order, with strong cases made for all three teams as the class of the conference.
From there, it gets a little fuzzy.
“After Buffalo, Baltimore and Kansas City, I think any of those next five could be reverse order,” one of the execs said.
The eight execs, whose backgrounds range from personnel evaluation to contracts/salary cap and analytics/strategy, ranked every team in each conference on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. They also offered explanations, included below.
Teams are ordered by the median of their rankings, with ties between teams broken by average vote. The Ravens lead the way, even though Kansas City is coming off a 15-2 season that saw the Chiefs reach their fifth Super Bowl in six seasons.
Eight execs rank the AFC
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1. Baltimore Ravens
Votes: 1-2-2-1-1-3-1-3 | Avg: 1.75 | Median: 1.5 | Vegas wins: 11.5 (T-2nd-AFC)
Four of the eight voters placed the Ravens atop their ballots, with Buffalo and Kansas City splitting the remaining four No. 1 votes.
“I feel like they were really the best team last year and are even hungrier now with the loss in the playoffs, not getting over the hump,” one voter said. “I think they’ll have a top-five defense, maybe even top-three. Last year, it took them a while after losing (coordinator Mike) Macdonald. They won’t have the Justin Tucker struggles, either.”
The Ravens were fifth in combined EPA on defense and special teams over their final nine games last season, after ranking 30th over the first eight. The offense ranked in the top three over both of those time frames.
“I’ll go Baltimore this year, because of the quarterback and then the overall roster,” said another exec who ranked the Ravens No. 1. “They have a good combination of young guys and veteran guys this year.”
2. Buffalo Bills
Votes: 3-3-1-2-2-2-2-1 | Avg: 2 | Median: 2 | Vegas wins: 12.5 (1st)
The Bills carry the AFC’s highest Vegas win total, which reflects not just team strength, but also schedule.
“I think Josh Allen is right, dead square in his prime,” one of the execs ranking the Bills first said. “They have to do it this year. Baltimore is so well-coached and so sound, and Lamar Jackson is explosive. It is a dead heat between those two.”
The Bills are 2-0 against Baltimore in the playoffs when Allen and Jackson were in their teams’ lineups.
“Talent-wise, Baltimore might be better in certain spots, but they just haven’t shown the ability to take that next step,” another exec said. “Buffalo has shown that in crucial moments, crucial games, they are able to make that one extra play, the few times they have played.”
That excludes the Ravens’ 35-10 victory over the Bills in Week 4 last season.
“I think Buffalo has the best roster and the best quarterback right now,” the other exec ranking the Bills first said. “Kansas City will find a way because of the quarterback. That is what they do. I am not trusting Baltimore as much.”
One of the voters ranking Buffalo third questioned the Bills’ staying power.
“Buffalo is third, but I don’t think they will be there at the end,” he said. “They are very thin, and I think the defense is a really big concern for them. The division sucks, so that helps.”
The exec who endorsed Buffalo’s roster as the best pushed back against the concerns on defense.
“They have (pass) rushers,” he said. “They have different ways to pressure without having to scheme. I trust their scheme as much as anything. I do think getting (Jordan) Poyer back, although he is not the player he once was, solidifies them with a leader back there.”
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Votes: 2-1-3-3-3-1-3-2 | Avg: 2.25 | Median: 2.5 | Vegas wins: 11.5 (T-2nd)
The Chiefs were a near-consensus No. 1 choice among execs entering last season. They proceeded to secure the AFC’s top seed with a 15-1 record before resting Patrick Mahomes and other starters in Week 18 on their way to the Super Bowl.
Why the relative skepticism here?
“Kansas City has been up there so long,” one exec said. “I think long seasons, older players now, natural regression. As good as Mahomes is, they aren’t as explosive as they used to be, like Buffalo or Baltimore.”
One of the voters ranking Kansas City first thinks that last part will change, especially if rookie Josh Simmons solidifies the situation at left tackle.
“Get ready,” this voter said. “NFL MVP: Patrick Mahomes. I think he is at a point in his life where he is like, ‘Uh-uh, I’m the guy.’ He is in a great spot. I think he is coming for all the haters. We are going to see a huge year from him, a 38-touchdown-passes type of year.”
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Mahomes averaged 38.7 touchdown passes per season from 2020-22 before dipping to 27 and 26, respectively, over the past two seasons.
“Seeing the Netflix documentary on the (1990s) Cowboys, how hungry they were after missing out on a three-peat, I could see those guys being super motivated now,” another voter said. “I feel this will be Mahomes trying to air it out more. He has a lot of speed out there. Rashee Rice will come back from suspension.”
This voter had Baltimore first, Kansas City second and Buffalo third on his ballot.
“From a roster standpoint, I think Kansas City is not as complete as Baltimore or Philly,” he added. “K.C. is more on Buffalo’s level, where there are some holes, but with the totality of the coaching, the schemes, the superstars, I’ve got them at 2.”
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Votes: 4-6-4-4-6-5-5-6 | Avg: 5 | Median: 5 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-4th)
The Bengals are the only team with all eight votes from fourth to sixth, but their footing atop the conference’s second tier feels tenuous.
“Cincinnati is really talented and arguably should be the fourth team based on offensive production, but I just don’t know that they have really gotten to a point where defensively they can match up,” said an exec who ranked Houston fourth and Cincinnati fifth.
The 2024 Bengals were sixth in offensive EPA per play and 29th on the defensive side. That was the largest rankings gap in the league.
“I trust Burrow and Cincy’s offense,” another voter said. “If it is a shootout, so be it. They were the team everyone was scared of late in the year.”
Best-case scenario, the Bengals could be where the Chiefs were entering the 2019 season. Those Chiefs had ranked first on offense and 31st on defense in the previous season, at which point they changed defensive coordinators, sparking marked improvement on that side of the ball. One huge difference: Kansas City hired Steve Spagnuolo, a coordinator with a Super Bowl-winning pedigree. Cincy is taking a less proven route.
“I don’t know if that is an upgrade going from (Lou) Anarumo to (Al) Golden (as defensive coordinator),” one voter said. “They did re-sign their stars. Give them credit for that.”
5. Houston Texans
Votes: 5-8-5-5-5-4-9-4 | Avg: 5.625 | Median: 5 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-4th)
The Texans were the only team in the top six to get votes outside the top seven spots, a reflection of general consensus atop the conference.
“I wanted to put Denver here, but how much of last season was the last-place schedule?” one voter said. “Because when they got into the playoffs, you could see they were in that next tier.”
The Texans, for all their struggles last season, did win in the playoffs for a second consecutive season with coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud.
“I really like Houston’s defense,” an exec ranking Houston fifth in the AFC said. “They have the most underrated defensive ends in the NFL. If (Derek) Stingley is not the top corner with (Pat) Surtain, he is two or three. They just play aggressive on defense.”
This exec was more worried about the Texans’ offensive line than he was about Stroud, although those worries are connected.
“He’s a great passer, but he needs time, he needs a window, because he’s not great under pressure,” this exec said. “He’s a little bit slower going through progressions, but he is very accurate, he’s got the arm, he’s athletic. It’s just when he sees a lot of zones, he takes just a touch longer. That is where Burrow is so damn good — I think he’s brilliant.”
6. Denver Broncos
Votes: 6-5-6-7-4-6-4-5 | Avg: 5.375 | Median: 5.5 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-4th)
Denver rounds out a second tier of teams ranked fourth through sixth, with a larger gap to the next group, which features the Steelers and Chargers.
“Denver is getting better and could win that division this year, actually,” said an exec who nonetheless had Cincinnati-Houston-Denver in his 4-5-6 slots.
The Broncos ranked first in defensive EPA per play last season. How high can they climb from their No. 16 ranking on offense?
“I trust the coach (Sean Payton), and Bo Nix is still underrated,” one voter said. “They paid (Courtland) Sutton, they got RJ Harvey to go with J.K. Dobbins. I think (Evan) Engram will be the big piece for them to open up the offense. We know Sean loves tight ends who can get up the seam.”
That would help overcome potential regression on defense.
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“I think Denver is the fifth-best team,” another exec said. “Is it good enough (to contend)? Probably not. My issues are quarterback-related, which is why I have Houston fourth. I trust that quarterback more than some of the others.”
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Votes: 7-4-8-9-8-7-8-7 | Avg: 7.25 | Median: 7.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-8th)
Aaron Rodgers plus DK Metcalf plus Arthur Smith equals … what?
“Pittsburgh just seems like a calamity waiting to happen with all the hodge-podge pieces that were added,” an exec who ranked the Steelers eighth in the AFC said.
That is not the only possible outcome.
“People are saying Mike Tomlin is finally going to have a losing season, and it’s going to be because of Rodgers,” the voter ranking Pittsburgh fourth said. “Nope. I see it the other way.”
This voter thinks Rodgers will be better physically after having more time to recover from the torn Achilles tendon that cost him his 2023 season.
“Rodgers is coming back, and that is going to lift their offense, their entire team,” this voter said. “Their defense and special teams are really good. I have them in the playoffs and making a run.”
Another voter saw Rodgers as a Tier 4 quarterback this season, meaning he ideally would not start a full season at this point in his career.
“But as I was looking at their defensive depth chart, their (starters) are as good as anybody’s on paper,” this voter said. “You can imagine them not having turnovers, which Rodgers is good at avoiding. But the (offensive) line is just OK, and when you have a pocket, immobile quarterback without a great O-line, how can they stay on track? That is where the run game will be key, and short fields with that defense.”
8. Los Angeles Chargers
Votes: 8-9-7-6-7-8-7-8 | Avg: 7.5 | Median: 7.5 | Vegas wins: 9.5 (T-4th)
Losing left tackle Rashawn Slater to a season-ending injury was a huge blow for a team that wants to grind out games on the ground.
“They are going to have to play good defense and rely on (Justin) Herbert to pull it out in clutch games, which he has not had a track record of doing in the big games, the close games,” a voter ranking the Chargers eighth said.
Per TruMedia, Herbert is 0-7 over the past two seasons (0-2 in 2024) in games decided by three or fewer points, despite ranking third in EPA per pass play among 27 QBs with at least five starts in such games. One reason: Only Tua Tagovailoa was more “betrayed” in these games (measured by subtracting team defensive/special teams EPA from QB EPA).
“They led the league in fewest turnovers last year, but then turned it over a bunch in the playoffs,” another voter said. “(Omarion) Hampton will be good to do what they do, with more upside than (J.K.) Dobbins last season. Turnovers can be a huge regression stat, but if they run it as much as Greg Roman wants to run it, they shouldn’t have a ton of turnover exposure.”
9. Miami Dolphins
Votes: 10-10-9-13-11-9-6-9 | Avg: 9.625 | Median: 9.5 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-10th)
The Dolphins are in their own tier here, with large gaps between them and the surrounding teams. A fringe playoff team, perhaps.
“I have them ninth, just outside the playoffs, but if they make it, it’s not a big surprise,” one of the execs said.
Tua Tagovailoa is one of four quarterbacks to start at least nine games in each of the past five seasons while having a winning record in all five seasons. Mahomes, Jackson and Allen are the others. Miami’s defense was critical in Tagovailoa’s early success, but still …
“The record with Tua and (coach Mike) McDaniel is too good to overlook,” another voter said. “It seems like the GM’s on the hot seat, the coach is on the hot seat, but they still got Tyreek Hill and (Jayden) Waddle and (De’Von) Achane and Tua. When those guys are healthy, they should have no problem scoring. And then defensively, they got a lot of talent still. They are thin in the secondary, and that will be tough.”
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10. New England Patriots
Votes: 16-12-11-10-10-10-10-12 | Avg: 11.375 | Median: 10.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-8th)
All but one voter had the Patriots 10th to 12th.
“I think New England could take a jump, the quarterback having a year under his belt,” a voter ranking the Patriots 11th said. “I’m a big Mike Vrabel fan. I think they’ll be better.”
One voter had the Patriots 16th (they finished last season 13th in the AFC).
“I just feel like that roster was in such bad shape, and you see it in all the cuts they made, like the first-round reach Cole Strange, and now Kyle Dugger is demoted,” said the voter who ranked New England last. “I love the coach, but to have expectations improve that much when the cupboard is so bare, I don’t know.”
The other voters thought Vrabel would gain more traction early.
“Dolphins, Patriots, you can flip a coin,” another exec said. “I think the Patriots have better coaching and will be more of a physical team, but the Dolphins, they have some explosive players and some things on offense that they can really be really, really special with.”
11. Las Vegas Raiders
Votes: 11-11-10-8-9-14-12-11 | Avg: 10.75 | Median: 11 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (T-13th)
The Raiders drew votes in six different slots, most for any team in the AFC.
“They will be better,” the exec ranking the Raiders lowest (14th) said. “But I think the whole AFC West has gotten so much better. Even if Geno Smith plays the best he’s ever played in his career, he’s still the fourth-best quarterback in that division.”
The voter ranking the Raiders 10th picked Las Vegas as the one team among the bottom seven with the best shot at surprising skeptics.
“Geno is better than people think as long as he doesn’t turn it over, which he didn’t do as much when he was with Pete (Carroll) before,” this voter said. “I think Chip Kelly will be good. If they have success, it will be interesting to see what happens with Chip there long term.”
Questions at wide receiver proliferated.
“They will run the ball with (Ashton) Jeanty and feed (Brock) Bowers,” this voter said. “Jeanty and Brock are good in the short and intermediate pass game. Defensively, with (Maxx) Crosby and (coordinator) Patrick Graham, I think they will be scrappy.”
12. Jacksonville Jaguars
Votes: 12-7-12-11-12-11-13-10 | Avg: 11 | Median: 11.5 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-10th)
For all the focus on new coach Liam Coen’s work with incumbent quarterback Trevor Lawrence, his efforts in reviving Tampa Bay’s run game could be underrated.
“I have a ton of respect how he turned around Tampa’s run game from 32nd to top-five,” one voter said. “They have a lot of good backs who have different strengths. O-line will be a question mark. It comes down to how quickly can they get production out of Trevor, who did look better in the preseason.”
Only one voter slotted the Jaguars higher than 10th. This voter had the Jaguars seventh, ahead of AFC South favorite Houston.
“I just think we get a better year from the quarterback, and then the defensive scheme that (Anthony) Campanile runs emphasizes turnovers,” this voter said. “They will have some turnover luck this year that will help them.”
13. Indianapolis Colts
Votes: 9-14-13-14-15-15-11-13 | Avg: 13 | Median: 13.5 | Vegas wins: 7.5 (T-10th)
There’s some thought that the Colts, freed from the charade of pretending Anthony Richardson is ready to start, might outperform expectations despite Daniel Jones’ limitations.
“I think they’ll be better than people think,” the voter ranking Indy ninth said. “Daniel Jones has a lot of talent around him, where he doesn’t need to do anything crazy.”
The voter slotting Indy 11th sounded conflicted.
“I probably have them too high, but it’s like they always find their way to the middle of the pack,” he said.
Another voter said he could see right away during the preseason why the Colts went with Jones over Anthony Richardson: The former allows coach Shane Steichen a better shot at calling a coherent game offensively.
“He’s probably like, ‘Dude, just give me a guy who’s not going to give me the one bad play that’s going to blow up the drive, and just get me on schedule so I could keep dialing it up,’” this voter said.
There is a catch.
“The thing with Daniel Jones is, he’s a limited-upside, low-ceiling quarterback that is turnover prone,” another exec said. “But he’s going to give you a (better) chance to compete and give you what Gardner Minshew did when they almost made the playoffs (at 9-8 in 2023) — a guy that’s better than Gardner.”
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14. New York Jets
Votes: 14-13-16-15-14-13-14-15 | Avg: 14.25 | Median: 14 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (T-13th)
For the first time in a few years, there’s very little hype surrounding the Jets entering the season. All eight voters slotted them 13th or lower.
“(New coach) Aaron Glenn will be fine, and Garrett Wilson is a good player,” one exec said. “I’m not a big Justin Fields fan. He’s a bridge at best and a really good backup.”
The Jets are going to play one way.
“Win it on defense, shorten the game running the ball, have a running quarterback and play a 13-10 ballgame,” the exec added.
Another voter said it was too early to know much.
“The bit that I’ve seen in preseason was nice, but I’ve still got to see what they are,” this exec said. “I think they’re going to be a year in transition. They very well could be close to as bad as Tennessee.”
15. Tennessee Titans
Votes: 15-16-15-12-13-16-15-14 | Avg: 14.5 | Median: 15 | Vegas wins: 6.5 (T-13th)
Execs expect rookie quarterback Cam Ward to help the Titans, but not to transform them.
“I don’t know if he has enough around him,” one exec said. “I don’t think he is a franchise changer, but he’s good.”
The voter ranking Mike Vrabel’s former team (Tennessee) over Vrabel’s current team (New England) made his case.
“I like Cam Ward, and I think they have more talent,” this voter said of the Titans. “I like the Cam Ward and Calvin Ridley duo. (Tony) Pollard is solid. They’ve invested a lot in the O-line. I expect (line coach Bill) Callahan to get the most out of that line. And then defensively, not the greatest unit, but they have impact players like Jeffery Simmons.”
16. Cleveland Browns
Votes: 13-15-14-16-16-12-16-16 | Avg: 14.75 | Median: 15.5 | Vegas wins: 5.5 (16th)
Four of the eight execs ranked Cleveland last in the conference. The voter ranking them highest (12th) had the Titans, Colts, Jets and Raiders lower.
“Cleveland is not going to be great, but they’re not going to be as bad,” this exec said. “I think they have a good enough defense to help them stay in a lot of games. And if they have decent quarterback play, which they should have with (Joe) Flacco, they’ll stay afloat.”
The voter ranking the Browns 13th pointed to their coaching in elevating Cleveland over the Patriots and Jets.
“They’ve got the best coaches between (Kevin) Stefanski and (Jim) Schwartz,” he said. “That defense should be really good with (Myles) Garrett and Denzel Ward, and I liked the second-round linebacker (Carson Schwesinger). You would like them more on offense if they had (Quinshon) Judkins.”
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