The NASCAR Cup Series advances to the second race of the playoffs in the Round of 16 this Sunday at World Wide Technology Raceway — better known by NASCAR fans as Gateway.

The first race of the playoffs had some surprises — but was it enough to change our view of the picture? We get into that question and many more below with our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.

But first, for context, here are the odds for the race and the playoff winner.

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Enjoy Illinois 300Cup Series champion oddsQ&A for NASCAR at Illinois and playoff picture

Did last week’s race in Darlington change your view of the playoff picture, or are your favorites the same?

Jeff: I’m sticking with my same final four for now, even though Joey Logano had a disappointing race at Darlington. Two of my Championship 4 picks — Logano and Ryan Blaney should perform very well this weekend; if not, there’s something very wrong. Another one of my final four picks — Chase Briscoe — went out and dominated the Southern 500, so I’m still feeling pretty good about that one. And Denny Hamlin, despite a bad pit stop and loss of track position, salvaged a decent finish last weekend to put himself 43 points above the cutoff line; if all goes well at Gateway, he could clinch a spot in Round 2 before the Bristol race even begins. Additionally, my concerns about Hendrick Motorsports (I don’t have any of their cars in my Championship 4) seemed at least somewhat valid after none of their cars finished in the top 15 at Darlington.

Jordan: Sure, Hendrick Motorsports had an off night where the pressure intensified on them to perform this weekend — and at a Gateway track where it has a spotty record — and Team Penske wasn’t as fast as expected. Still, one race is not enough for me to be convinced that the teams we thought would have a strong playoff will now swing dramatically in the other direction. But one driver who did surprise, positively, was Ross Chastain. There was uncertainty whether Trackhouse had the speed to contend, with Chastain not finishing better than 10th in the preceding 10 races before the playoffs. Yet at Darlington, he was a fixture in the top 10 before sliding to 11th at the end. That’s encouraging, especially now that he’s eighth in the standings and has built up a 21-point buffer.

Two of the three previous winners here are Team Penske cars, and Blaney is a co-favorite to win. Should we expect Penske to be strong here?

Jeff: This is maybe one of the most important playoff races we’ve seen in a long time when it comes to forecasting how the rest of this season could go. Why? Because Gateway cousin track New Hampshire kicks off the next round, and another cousin track, Phoenix, decides the championship. These tracks have never been in the playoffs since Phoenix became the championship race, so for the first time in this format, we’ll get a good indicator of strength less than two months from the title being decided. We’re all going in expecting Penske to be very good, along with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell. Meanwhile, the Hendrick cars could struggle. If either of those things is incorrect, then the championship picture will look different from what we expected.

Jordan: All eyes are on Penske this weekend, and for good reason: They are the team to beat at Gateway. This is a great opportunity for them to lock one of Blaney, Logano or Austin Cindric into the next round and for the other two to accumulate a bunch of points. And in the big picture, success here will only further the belief that this playoff schedule sets up so advantageously for Penske that it would be a shock if at least one of its drivers didn’t eventually advance to the championship round. But if Penske should struggle to find speed this weekend, it will call into question whether the team will seriously be a factor the rest of the way.

Shane van Gisbergen has four wins, tied for the most in the series, and five top-10s, but all came on road courses. What are his chances of surviving the playoff cut to stay in the mix for when the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval closes out the Round of 12?

Jeff: SVG coughed up nearly his entire playoff points cushion in one race after his car did not handle to his liking at Darlington, and now he’s in pretty big trouble. The New Zealand native has never seen the Gateway track before — he said last week he didn’t even know where St. Louis was on a map — so you wouldn’t think that bodes well for beating the likes of Logano (who is just three points behind him). And next week is Bristol, where van Gisbergen struggled mightily in the spring race. If he survives this cut, it’s going to be because others on the bubble had worse days. Darlington put him in a really tough situation.

Jordan: SVG didn’t need a great day at Darlington, he just needed a decent day — and that was not at all what he had. By finishing 32nd, all the bonus points he had built up are virtually gone, to the point that he now has almost no margin of error these next two weeks and is in real danger of being eliminated after just one round. To move forward, he’ll likely need to finish somewhere in the top 20 at both Gateway and Bristol, hope no one behind him in points wins and hope a few drivers ahead of him in the standings stumble backwards. That’s a lot that needs to go right.

Who is your pick to win?

Jeff: I picked Logano to win the championship on the strength of his performance at places like Gateway, so I’m not backing down from that at this point. Logano has the best average finish at Gateway (3.0!) with three top-five finishes; the next-closest driver has an 8.3 average finish (his Penske teammate, Austin Cindric). And yet Logano only has the seventh-best odds to win, at +1100. He’s even behind two drivers for Hendrick, which has not shown a ton of speed at this track. I’d say a Penske driver or Bell should be the favorite, but I’m going with Logano.

Jordan: Blaney has been the fastest among the Penske drivers all season, and there is no reason to think this won’t again be the case. Gateway is one of his better tracks, with him leading the second-most laps here, and he would’ve won this race last year had his team not somehow run him out of fuel. He will factor heavily in the outcome on Sunday, and should be considered the favorite to win.

What long shots do you think can contend? Is it plausible that a driver not in the playoffs could steal a win?

Jeff: If +3000 is enough of a long shot, you should be looking at Carson Hocevar. For those who don’t know the Hocevar story, this track was where he got his big break. Corey LaJoie filled in for a suspended Chase Elliott, so Hocevar got in LaJoie’s Spire car — and shockingly ran as high as 16th before a brake rotor exploded and sent him crashing. Then, last year, Hocevar came back as a Cup Series rookie and finished eighth there. Clearly, he’s confident at the place and should be fast on Sunday.

Jordan: How’s this for a long shot: Ryan Preece (+5000), whose best Gateway finish in two starts is 17th. But flat ovals like Gateway are the kind of tracks where Preece often excels, and unlike the previous two years, he comes in with a much better team that’s consistently given him fast cars all season. He’s been knocking on the door to victory lane all season, and Sunday may just be when he breaks through.

How to watch NASCAR this weekend
Race: Enjoy Illinois 300
Track: World Wide Technology Raceway — Madison, Ill.
Time: Sunday, September 7, 3 p.m. ET
Channel: USA and HBO Max

(Photo of Ryan Blaney: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)